09/17/2026

I assess Trump’s claim that Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries are driving diesel prices higher. Those strikes can constrain refinery capacity, but I examine why they are not the largest factor in the available evidence. Russia has already restricted refined-fuel exports amid domestic shortages, while a KSE Institute estimate shared with the Financial Times puts the March-to-August Persian Gulf export decline during the US-Israeli war with Iran at 152 million barrels, versus a 68 million-barrel decline in Russian exports. The diesel-price chart discussed here also shows the major jump following the Iran conflict, not Ukraine’s refinery campaign.

I also explain Zelensky’s proposed reciprocal energy ceasefire: Ukraine would stop hitting Russian oil infrastructure if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine’s power grid. If Kyiv is pressured to abandon refinery strikes without a verifiable Russian commitment before winter, it risks losing a critical bargaining tool while Putin retains the ability to coerce Ukraine through energy attacks.

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes