Jan 29, 2024

India has signaled it will distance itself from Russian weapons, threatening further Russia’s role as a major global arms supplier amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The development was reported by Reuters on Monday, citing four government sources, including a recently retired senior security official, who all spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject. The sources said India is gradually pivoting away from Russia and shifting toward the West for its arms supplies.

Russia is the second-largest global arms exporter behind the United States. Over the last two decades, Russia supplied India with 65 percent of its weapons purchases of more than $60 billion, Reuters reported, citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) arms trade watchdog.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, notes that while the Russian arms export industry has been declining since the early 2010s, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent sanctions imposed on the country by the West have “aggravated these issues by straining Russia’s defense production capacity, negatively affecting the reputation of Russian arms, and complicating payment options for the Kremlin’s existing customers.”

“We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia,” Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation, told the news agency. “That would be a red line for Washington.”

Newsweek reached out to Russia’s Foreign Ministry and India’s External Affairs Minister via email for comment.

The reports come after SIPRI data indicated in December that Russia’s leading arms firms appear to be struggling under the pressure of Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war in Ukraine, Newsweek previously reported.

The combined revenue of two Russian weapon-producing giants—Rostec and the United Shipbuilding Corporation—included in SIPRI’s annual ranking of the top 100 arms-producing companies worldwide fell by 12 percent in 2022, the year Putin launched his full-scale invasion of his neighboring country.

Between January and November 2022, Russian arms exports were worth some $8 billion, significantly less than the $15.8 billion registered in 2021, the SIPRI figures showed.

“In 2022, Russian companies continued to be affected by a decline in arms exports,” SIPRI said. “While they have been feeling the consequences of this trend for some time, the impact appeared to be much stronger in 2022 than previously.”

Ivan Klyszcz, a research fellow for the International Centre for Defence and Security, assessed in April 2023 that Western firms have been targeting the Indian market to replace Russian suppliers.

Klyszcz noted that India’s strategic choice of an “uncommitted” policy vis-à-vis Russia’s aggression in Ukraine opened an opportunity for Moscow to make its move for evading sanctions and substituting markets through India.

“The outcome is that Russia undermines the enforcement of international norms,” he wrote.

“For India, Russia’s business offer is a double-edged sword. Due to the volume of trade, the short-term economic gains have been large for the Indian government. But the reputational costs of dealing with Russia have already resulted in a wedge between India and the West.”

Klyszcz concluded that the case of India suggests that Russia’s strategic partners can only look after their own interests while moderating the reputational damage caused by continued relations with Russia.

“Whereas they might not be making common cause with Russia, Moscow capitalizes on their balancing act,” he added.

https://www.newsweek.com/india-russia-weapons-arms-sales-ukraine-1864773