15.03.2024

In an interview with UNIAN, political technologist, publicist and blogger Mykhailo Sheitelman spoke about the upcoming troubled times in Russia and assessed the likelihood of a civil war, as well as commented on the readiness of the West to send troops into Ukraine and much more.

A new raid by Russian volunteers is the hottest news for the rest of the week. It seems that they entered seriously. Not like in the past when they came in and out. This time with tanks and artillery, there are statements that they want to stay there as long as possible and go as far as possible. How do you rate this raid?

I remember their second event, when they also messed around for a long time there, and the Russians tried to knock them out for a long time. Putin also boasted about his exploits, the Great Patriotic War against the Russian Volunteer Corps was then going on in the Belgorod region.

Now, at least, we know exactly what goals the volunteers are pursuing, they named them directly and very frankly: participation in the elections . Therefore, I think that they should hold out at least until Sunday in order to completely spoil the election for Putin, to show that he does not rule this country.

• PUTIN WAS A COMPLETE FAILURE
• VERY DARK AND DISTURBING TIMES ARE WAITING FOR RUSSIA
• THE KREMLIN HAS NOTHING TO ANSWER TO THE INTRODUCTION OF WESTERN TROOPS INTO UKRAINE
• NOW THE FRONT IN UKRAINE IS STABLE

Why is the Kremlin’s mouth watering? Is this expected for you or not? There are reports that even two regions have already been banned from publishing any information, let alone accompanying it with a photo or video about the events in the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

The Kremlin didn’t quite wince. There were two messages. The first: that in reality everyone is lying, and there was no breach of the border. This was reported by the FSB of the Russian Federation. And the second: that in the process of eliminating the breakthrough, the FSB destroyed 100 pieces of equipment, as many soldiers, etc. To put it mildly, self-contradictory messages.

They need to sit quieter than the water and lower than the grass. And what should they say? What “we heroically repulse the attack”? Whom? Which volunteers? Who are they? What can the Kremlin even say about this? They have a real problem. They dreamed of holding elections so that everything would be quiet. This was their main dream. The quieter they are, the better in these elections. So that no one notices that there are elections. This is their main task. And now suddenly everyone is like: “What is happening here?”

The armed forces have awakened half of Russia. Eight or ten regions were bombed by drones in just one night. No one even knows for sure. And this is happening separately from the offensive of Russian volunteers in two regions. Plus, the story with the plane is still unclear . What it is? By chance, it coincided that exactly on this day, the Il-76 military plane, which was also flying to the airfield, where the A-50, some instructors, etc., caught fire? Did he catch himself on fire? I think it’s ours too. Hardly a drone. I think someone planted a bomb there. It’s hard to believe that it turned out so beautifully by chance.

PUTIN WAS A COMPLETE FAILURE

You have listed all this in such a way that Kindratii should really be enough for Putin.

Putin personally – okay. What is more important here is what his team thinks now, what his elite think. The same governors. They are important people. They should have been. Where should they go now? What should they say to their population? How are they responsible for all this and to whom?

In this situation, Putin was exposed as a complete loser in front of his entourage. If we look at the political task of the war. The electorate is not important to us, we are not interested in what 140 million people think, it is important to us what 1-2 million of the real elite of Russia think.

And, most likely, the fighters of these battalions do not need to achieve the goal they announce – the march to Moscow. It seems to me that the coup in the Kremlin can happen much faster – if the volunteers advance deeper and deeper within a week or two. And they can advance. See how the Russian army flees. After all, practically no one resists. Entire checkpoints fled there. Question: why is everything left to its own devices?

And the answer to this question is the simplest: they simply don’t have anyone. The entire Russian army is in Ukraine. Everything else is some kids who don’t understand how to fight. And professional soldiers came against them. Of course they will diverge.

There is no army inside the country. This is a fact. Today, Russia can be taken with bare hands. If NATO had decided to capture Moscow or St. Petersburg, they would have taken it without loss by entering from Finland, Estonia, and Latvia.

But let’s be realistic. There are too few of these guys to reach Moscow. If there were several thousand of them, they could reach Moscow. I am also not ready to say now that the government in Russia will change tomorrow because of this. But this is not the end. Elections on the 17th. And what do we have in store? And where is the Intelligence Directorate (GUR)? What bridge is it going to blow up on the 16th? We don’t know. Any one can, that’s right. And you can arrange many things during this time.

I assumed that the command would come up with some actions specially for Putin’s election. Now the effect is doubled. Each drone works both as a military machine and as a political program. Therefore, we will see what Putin’s authority will be after that, how his entourage will look at him, how the governors will react.

By the way, drones bombed the Lukoil refinery . And it is very difficult to restore the damaged towers at the factory, they cannot be built tomorrow. Russia does not know how to build such towers, some international experts are needed, and here – sanctions. And “Lukoil” is a very big company, there are big people with big interests.

The owners of such factories elected Putin to be the guarantor of their safety, earnings, access to world markets. For example, Putin guaranteed that the Cherepovets metallurgical plant can sell steel to America, and Lukoil – oil to Europe. But today all this cannot be done. So why do they need Putin? There must be some practical sense. These people are not idealists. Grandmothers in front of the TV believe in Putin, and for the elite he is a profitable tool. And as long as it is beneficial to them, they need it. When he gets in the way… These are the gradual changes that can happen in Russia.

The problem, probably, is that they still do not trust each other and cannot unite against him.

They can’t, that’s for sure. Such dictatorships do not fall by the fact that everyone sat down and agreed. No. A domino effect must occur here: something happened somewhere, then it went somewhere else. And the Russian Volunteer Corps can become the first dominosha, followed by the same refineries. We need a civil war in Russia. This is our Ukrainian interest. And civil war does not start by agreement. It begins with some kind of shooting at the train station, relatively speaking.

VERY DARK AND DISTURBING TIMES ARE WAITING FOR RUSSIA

It also seems to me that the “icing on the cake” of this “series” dedicated to pseudo-elections in the Russian Federation will be the undermining of one of the bridges, as you say. How will this affect the elections?

Everything is exactly the same. We show: “Guys, you are not protected in any of your areas. We will beat, bomb and kill you. You like that you have Putin – we will kill you.” We report this to the local elites. For any of their arguments in favor of Putin, we must have an argument against. That’s all. This is our dialogue with them.

It is useless to negotiate, sit down, discuss and talk with them. These are semi-bandits after all. The entire Putin elite is like that, there are no others. And they understand only this language. And if Putin built a bridge, and we blew it up, then we are cooler. And why do you need President Putin, who is cooler than the neighboring relatively small country compared to Russia.

How do these marches to the West affect our partners? Will the “peacekeepers” appear there again, who, as last time, will condemn the actions of both the RDK and the “Freedom of Russia” Legion and urge them not to anger Putin?

I think times have changed. There is a lot of evidence that we live in a completely different time. In my opinion, the last offensive of the RDK was about a year ago. And, of course, if you polled European leaders at that time, only a few believed that Putin and I were not going to negotiate in the future, but today it is the mainstream. There is a general understanding that there will never be any dialogue with Putin. There is no way back for Putin. There is no way to bring Putin back. So, it can be finished in any way.

Not only that, it seems to me that now we are even a little at the next stage. No one will talk not only to Putin, but also to Putin’s regime. His entourage has already been declared an international wanted man in The Hague. And this cannot be simply abandoned, it cannot be canceled by any peace agreement.

This does not mean that Europe is ready to conduct a dialogue only with the beautiful Russia of the future. No. With some completely different internal party of conditional governors, the same murderers and complicit in today’s crimes – yes, but not directly with Putin’s gang.

This is already progress. So it will come to the point that Europe and the USA will not be against the collapse of the Russian Federation.

No one will need it. They will never be for it, but no one will ask them.

The collapse of the Russian Federation is a process so objective, so independent of anyone. There is a general trend where it is all going. This trend is more or less understandable. Unfortunately, this does not automatically mean our victory. But it is obvious that very dark and uncertain times await Russia in any case and under any schedule.

THE KREMLIN HAS NOTHING TO ANSWER TO THE INTRODUCTION OF WESTERN TROOPS INTO UKRAINE

How serious is Macron, who announced the introduction of Western troops into Ukraine . Does he want to finish this story? Is PR more important to him, and is he primarily pursuing some of his political goals?

No, this is not PR at all. All the history initiated by him did not happen in an empty place. This is a response to the actions of the Russian Federation, to the murder of Navalny and numerous consecutive statements by the Russian Federation at the state level that their goal is to destroy Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They were voiced one way or another differently in different formats by Medvedev, by Nebenzi, and by Lavrov. This means that for the first time Russia has openly admitted that it has set itself the goal of committing genocide. Macron had to react. In principle, any world leader should react, but Macron decided to take the initiative.

And at first he voiced the general concept, but two weeks later he gave an explanation: that if Russian troops break through to large cities, that is, Ukrainians are threatened with genocide, then coalition troops will be introduced into Ukraine. There is logic in this. When, for example, the Russians captured Avdiivka, they captured nine people there, for the sake of this the French troops would not have entered. And for the sake of a million people who are threatened with mass murder, in such situations, civilized countries introduce troops. And Macron became the leader of this. He does not need to introduce troops now. It is necessary to form a coalition, write a plan in which everyone will know who is sending how many troops.

And Macron has already assembled a coalition: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, and to some extent Canada. This is a lot, it is already enough for such a serious coalition. The task is set, everything is there.

And note that unlike the history that is happening today, the Kremlin is not silent. Constantly says something about it, asks. Because the Kremlin has nothing to answer from a legal point of view. As Petro Paver said, such introduction of troops is a legitimate action within the framework of international legislation. And Russia cannot make any claims. And if it decides to shoot at these troops, it will be Russia’s declaration of war on these countries. And the Russians have a very difficult situation.

NOW THE FRONT IN UKRAINE IS STABLE

Judging by the fact that Putin started shouting about nuclear weapons again, they take these threats very seriously. As well as the initiative of the Czech Republic to transfer 800,000 artillery shells. According to military experts, if you look carefully, there is absolutely no shortage in the world arms market. There would be money. And it seems that Europe has found a way, at least, how to stop the Russian army on the battlefield.

Judging by yesterday’s statement of Zelenskyi, it is so. He explained that now the front is stable. Probably, this could not have happened without shells.

It is about a lot of money. 800,000 shells, of which 500,000 are large-caliber 155 mm, 300,000 are 122 mm. Before the war, a NATO-caliber projectile cost 3,000 euros. Since the beginning of the war, it has risen in price by 20%. Roughly speaking, one such projectile costs 3.6 thousand euros. That is, they found 3 billion dollars. Let me remind you that Europe’s military aid to us is 20 billion euros per year. And they found extra money.

And Europe also allows interest from frozen Russian assets to be spent on the purchase of weapons, and not as before on the humanitarian sphere, on the restoration of Ukraine. It can be seen that everyone has seen through it.

There are three different cases. One case is $4 billion in interest from Russian assets. The second is that Great Britain is ready to transfer to us not the interest, but the assets themselves, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs Cameron said. And the assets there are worth 30 billion dollars. And the third case – the Swiss Senate also voted on the transfer of assets, there are more than 10 billion dollars.

Moreover, the British give us this in the form of a loan under the guarantee of Russian reparations. That is, we will receive reparations – we will return. handsome

The Republicans in the US Congress also talked about the loan. For you, this story with their separate bill is a time delay or can they still accept military aid?

Unfortunately, I am not very optimistic here. Mike Johnson obviously doesn’t want to claim all of this in any way. Therefore, all the words that we hear from him are all the delaying of time in its purest form. We understand that. Now the game is like this: there is an initiative by some Republican out there to collect 280 signatures to bypass Johnson and vote this package. This is theoretically possible. And then Mike Johnson has a problem: if the package is voted without him, then who is he? And he has elections in the fall. And it will hit his reputation very hard. Therefore, he always keeps some option in reserve.

Currently, IPSO is very actively spreading around the world that Putin is a great geostrategist who read everything three moves ahead, that Ukraine is faltering, and that he only has to push it a little. Plus nuclear threats and the sudden activation of “peacekeepers” who create “grounds for negotiations”. Don’t you think that this is done out of desperation?

Yes, absolutely. This is such a working scheme. Another wave. The first wave was in April 2022, when they published their peace plans in American newspapers under the names of some American generals. Then there was a huge wave when they published something in Swiss newspapers. Last summer they sent us just a whole bunch of different people. Everyone, anyone, offered us peace here, but we sent everyone away, we fought back from everyone. And they have nothing new to offer. Therefore, it seems to me that now it has become much easier. There are no longer those who would put pressure on us. So far, there are no real, important forces in the world that would offer us to participate in any negotiations.

The USA announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth 300 million dollars. And it was reported that it may contain ATACMS missiles . As Andriy Piontkovskyi told, the States have weapons stored in the Pentagon warehouses, which will need to be written off, and they can depreciate them. And you can imagine how much could be transferred under this arms scheme to Ukraine for the same 300 million.

Andrii Andriyovych is right. Do you remember the story about the extra $4 billion in the Pentagon’s budget? The point is that they issued us weapons at the manufacturer’s price, and not at the price after depreciation. And indeed, you’re right that if they sell us old ATACMS, they can price each one at, say, $5k, and then a lot of them can come.

Regarding the threat of terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation, all these reports are intelligence. Do you think they can “impose” themselves in the information space?

Yes, most likely, it was. After all, there was only a formal statement from the US Embassy. Where does this come from? The FSB of the Russian Federation officially informs the embassy through an official channel: “We have information that terrorist attacks will take place in Moscow in the next 48 hours , so we suggest that you warn your citizens.” Maybe give this to the FSB? May. And the ambassador is obliged to publish it. That’s the whole procedure.

And why did the Russians do it? By the way, it has already given them a positive result. For example, an action of the wives and mothers of the mobilized was planned for Saturday in the Russian Federation, and they canceled their action because of these “terrorist attacks”. So, this is what they could be afraid of. Any demonstrations, rallies.

Therefore, I think that this was a pre-election campaign by the FSB, so that no one would go anywhere.

Action “Noon against Putin” of the Russian opposition. How do you feel about it?

Very often, the Russian liberal opposition gives advice to Ukraine directly on many issues. It is a rare Russian oppositionist who did not give advice to Ukraine on how to fight, what to go into strategic defense, dig the best fortifications, where to buy shells… We have heard a million things. I don’t want to be like that. I do not give advice to the Russian opposition. This is not good. Here we are at war with them, we can discuss only one issue with them: war and peace between us. And their internal affairs, how they will overthrow Putin, let it be their business and initiative. And we will just watch here.

https://www.unian.ua/russianworld/putin-upevneniy-v-tomu-shcho-u-nogo-velike-maybutnye-ce-lyakaye-psiholog-popov-12495216.html