5 February 2026
Russia’s military economy, pumped up by trillions in spending on state defense orders and payments to those recruited to the front, is approaching breaking point.
Government financial officials have warned President Vladimir Putin that an economic crisis could erupt in the country in the coming months, The Washington Post reports , citing a source in direct contact with these officials.
According to a WaPo source, the warnings to Putin are becoming increasingly urgent, and officials believe the crisis could arrive as early as summer. Putin has been warned that without further tax increases, the budget deficit will continue to grow due to declining oil and gas revenues, while the banking system is under increasing pressure from high interest rates and large loans to finance the war, WaPo reports.
The crisis is “three to four months away,” a Moscow businessman told the publication. According to him, there are increasing signs of inflation far exceeding the 6% declared by the authorities, despite the Central Bank of Russia’s record-tight policy with a key rate of 16%. The forced layoffs of thousands of workers and the record wave of restaurant and bar closures in Moscow since the pandemic also point to a future crisis, a WaPo source said.
After two years of a military boom, when GDP grew by more than 4% annually, the Russian economy fell into a severe depression. Last year, growth slowed to 1%, 20 of the 28 civilian industries began to decline , and companies—from small to large—were experiencing massive debt repayment problems. According to the Central Bank, more than 10 trillion rubles of loans on bank balance sheets have become problematic . Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) warned
in February that the country is effectively experiencing a latent banking crisis. Despite two waves of tax increases, the Russian budget could suffer an astronomical deficit of 10 trillion rubles this year due to reduced oil purchases by India and discounts of nearly $30 per barrel (according to non-public government estimates). And if the lost oil and gas revenues are offset by the National Welfare Fund, almost all of the fund’s available funds—4.1 trillion rubles—will have to be spent.
EU measures against the “shadow fleet” could pose a new “serious threat” to the Kremlin, a source close to Russian diplomats told WaPo. In January, 14 EU countries signed an agreement on joint action against tankers flying false flags, effectively threatening to close the Baltic Sea—the main channel for exporting oil—to Russia. As part of the 20th sanctions package, the EU wants to completely ban maritime transport of Russian barrels and related services, which would threaten half of oil exports, WaPo reports.
“This is not only a threat to the economy, but also a political question of how Russia can allow this to happen without losing its political reputation,” a diplomatic source told the publication. Furthermore, Donald Trump could impose new energy sanctions if he believes “Russia is sabotaging the peace process,” he added.
When mafia land does collapse and putler goes whining to TACO for a ceasefire, Ukraine can give him the middle finger, or tell him to get the fuck out of Ukraine.
Some people are skeptical about the mafia economy collapsing. They don’t understand that this sort of thing is a slow-motion process, which can suddenly crumble completely.
Yeah. When we see the oligarchs getting out of town, you know it’s coming.
Do you think that the ghoul will let them leave the shithole? I sort of doubt it.
He might be on the first plane out to NK. 😂
That’s probably the only place that’ll take him. Porky is fond of the little runt.
“Putin has been warned that without further tax increases, the budget deficit will continue to grow due to declining oil and gas revenues, while the banking system is under increasing pressure from high interest rates and large loans to finance the war, WaPo reports.”
Speaking of oil revenues, I wonder why Ukraine has relented on its attacks on the mafia oil industry. Is it due to a lack of strike capabilities? Increased mafia air defense? Or due to the useless peace talks? I hope it’s the last reason.