June 2, 2024

Myroslav Cheh, a public figure, historian, ex-deputy of the Polish Diet of the 2nd and 3rd terms, in an interview with Anton Borkowski, host of the “Studio Zahid” program on Espresso, talked about important changes in international support for Ukraine and how it will affect the front

The signals for authorization to use Western weapons to deter the Russian enemy are extremely good. We are waiting for permission from the US, which may not be given publicly. As Daniel Fried, the State Department’s former coordinator for sanctions policy, told me last week, there could be a solution like ATACMS: we give the go-ahead, and then the Russians find out about it at their military airfields, from which their planes take off to bomb Kharkiv.

Yes, this is the finalization of the process. The permission is from Great Britain, the information went out that Storm Shadow was fighting in the Krasnodar Territory, and the Russians felt it and understood that it was so. The French are the same: President Macron said that he allows strikes on military targets, in the presence of German Chancellor Scholz. And we are waiting for the decision of President Biden and the democratic administration. But I think, if it hasn’t already happened, it will happen soon, we will find out after the Russians feel it, but we will find out for sure.

Let’s be honest: why did it take so long for the Americans to decide on ATACMS. Not because ATACMS will stand and it is such a terrible weapon. There was a different understanding – that when you hand over ATACMS, it is tantamount to the fact that they will be used against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation.

It’s the same as with the F16. Why Ukraine F16, if they will not hit targets on the territory of the Russian Federation? They will be chasing missiles here that will already be present on the territory of Ukraine – it is pointless, then why send such expensive installations here?

The F-16 is the same weapon that should repel Russian aviation hundreds of kilometers from the front line, if not deeper.

But as far as I understand, this will symbolize the beginning of a new stage of the war, at least the Russian Federation is trying to present it that way. Again and again they repeat their mantra about the nuclear threat, prepare for another nuclear test, say, well, as soon as the West does it, the West will be directly on the front line, etc. The event has gone, which means that there is already an understanding that the Russian Federation must be restrained by force.

I am extremely pleased to be able to quote the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, who supported President Macron, who said in February: we need strategic uncertainty. That is, NATO troops and French troops can be present on the territory of Russia. And Minister Sikorsky went on.

On Ukrainian territory. Is it still Russia? Maybe we don’t know something? Is Kaluga under threat?

Not yet. But God knows, world history develops in strange ways. As we know, there were different stories.

Some miserable 400 years ago, it was like that – Kaluga is ours.

What worries me the most is that there should be a Victory Parade of the Armed Forces in Sevastopol, a wall built on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Ukraine in the EU and NATO. And what will happen behind the scenes – let those 140 million be sorted out.

Let the Chinese figure it out.

I don’t know if they will be called Chinese or Russian, it doesn’t really matter to me.

Returning a little to a more serious matter – instructors and not only: Minister Sikorsky made a very strong statement, to which Russia reacted nervously.

The Russians know the price that the Americans set for them: when they try to use nuclear weapons, they will have the entire army that is on the territory of Ukraine and not only on the territory of Ukraine destroyed.

It was the Americans who really said what Victoria Nuland, who was the assistant secretary of state, said until March of this year, she told the Russians back in 2022.

So when it comes to the strategic picture of the war in Ukraine, it is already more or less formed. And when it comes to NATO troops in Ukraine, or NATO countries, let’s say that, or instructors, then I would pay attention to this first of all. Because they will. Or maybe, in fact, there are already instructors.

And we can come back to this, in fact, when we look at it, how far the situation will go with permits – non-permissions, what is happening with China and with its support of the Russian Federation. The Americans say extremely strongly that thanks to China, Russia has been waging this aggressive war for so long, without the support of Chinese technology, finance and a certain part of electronics and various devices for the military-industrial complex, Russia would not have the resources to wage this war. And the Americans state this very clearly. Moreover, they are trying to convince Europeans to adopt this approach as well.

That is, there is an understanding now that the decision on the war in Ukraine and Russian aggression against Ukraine is not made in Moscow, but in Beijing, and the corresponding messages are addressed.

And messages are sent that Russia is definitely not capable of winning a war against Ukrainians, and we will do everything so that Ukraine wins this war.

The number of instructors can be uncertain – why do we talk about a hundred or a thousand people, it could be ten thousand, twenty, thirty thousand? That is, the main thing is a political-military decision. If there are already contingents of instructors who will be in charge of, for example, military airfields or military logistics, accordingly, there may be victims. After all, Russia does not stop shelling not only military objects – it hits civilian objects directly. The killing of our people in Kharkiv in a supermarket is a demonstration not only of atrocity, but also of a wild Russian plan. But if Russia goes to destroy several Western military forces, it will require a clear response, perhaps a military one.

So far, the response to the alleged murders of Western instructors, the greatest grief there is – the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the killing of peaceful Ukrainians, in particular in Kharkiv, is all predicted. In fact, this is the most painful thing that can happen, because everyone who even slightly understands the nature of this war, the nature of Putin’s regime and today’s Russia, realizes that the Ukrainian people are paying the highest price. And these victims could not have been, if everything had been arranged earlier.

Are we talking about air defense systems?

Not only. I read an article in Foreign Affairs by Andrii Zahorodniuk, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, and Elton Cohen, an employee of the George Bush Jr. administration, he is one of the leading teachers of military history in America, a very authoritative person.

They wrote directly to the point, the same Timothy Snyder says: the war could end in 2022.

After the successes of the Ukrainian army near Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, there were 140,000 Russian troops in October 2022. At that time, the Ukrainian army numbered 800 thousand, with the defense sector – one million and one hundred thousand. Give weapons – and it would be all over the place.

And the same is happening today. Fortunately, it seems that consciousness is already a little different – this war can be ended and victims must be limited. And why are President Macron’s statements so important and what he said… That is, General Syrskyi said, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, that everything was already signed, and Macron said: wait, I will tell everything here with Zelenskyy – Syrskyi will tell me there. He said this: we will tell about everything on June 6, when President Zelenskyy will go to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the landing in Normandy.

Then Macron, as the master of this, announces to the whole world how we will end this war.

And now, returning to instructors, security and so on. I remember very well the year 2021 and the discussions “will Russian troops enter or not”. American and British instructors were on the territory of Ukraine, and it was decided that Washington and London would first withdraw their instructors, then the embassies, as you know. And then there was the realization that, in fact, the West does not believe in Ukraine, and the scenario that should be played out with “javelins”, “NLAWs” and so on – the West should repeat the scenario from Afghanistan or Syria: the destruction of cities and so on, extraordinary victims I remember my great indignation, I think that in politics one cannot do this irresponsibly. But that was the understanding of the situation.

Today there is a different understanding. Why are instructors important? You are absolutely right: it doesn’t matter how many there will be, a hundred or a few. What is important today is that the Western powers do not send them or will not send them to die on the fronts in Ukraine – that is obvious.

This means covering the Ukrainian sky so that they are safe, because they will be the first targets.

To influence Western opinion, Le Pen has already said: see! Macron is already preparing us to take part in the war. Populists and various friends of Putin make such a policy. Orban generally declared: what is it! What they allow themselves! Irresponsible! And so on.

We understand everything. We fix You said in your program: the understanding of the West begins with these decisions by all, the totality of these decisions, which we talked about, should begin the final stage of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Will Duda, Tusk, the Polish political community, the Polish military be ready to put their signatures on the documents that would allow Polish instructors to join this international contingent?

Of course, the Polish instructors and others should be present, for the sake of history and friendship and everything else. Instead, today, let’s put it this way, Poland is facing a prospect, we call it a hybrid attack by Russia and Belarus against Ukraine with the participation of thousands of refugees, migrants from the Middle East, all of whom, or 90%, have Russian visas. That is, people selected by the Russians to attack the Polish border with Belarus.

“Hezbollah” and “Taliban”, so to speak, in the Belarusian Polissia.

On Polissia or on the Krulevets or Kaliningrad section of the border between Russia and Poland.

That is, in fact, today Poland should be focused on the defense of a common front against Russia and its ally, Lukashenka’s Belarus, on the Suval Isthmus.

The Russian plans, which were already announced in 2009, that we will attack through this isthmus and reach Berlin, have not gone anywhere, no one has de-actualized them. They want to implement it in Moscow, Poland is now focused on this.

Wanting and being able are two big differences. The key story is the readiness to quickly deploy troops, to react quickly and not let go. But I will not underestimate this danger either, because Putin went to Lukashenka. He took the new leadership of the Ministry of Defense with him, and they held their meetings for two days or more. Of course, they were not talking about potatoes.

About human potatoes, in their understanding. I’m sorry to say so, but that’s how they treat people. You and I, Anton, for them are not people, but those who are to be destroyed as useless. This is how people think. And of course, Poland should be focused. Like Lithuania, which is digging trenches, Estonia, Latvia. The Germans will deploy their brigade in Lithuania. That is, to meet how Putin or Lukashenko wants to go against Lithuania. Because three or four months ago, Lukashenko was at the border, but with Lithuania, and said: “How long is that Suvalsky Isthmus – 40 kilometers? Not so much.”

That is, we understand that they, because of the success of various efforts, as they think, plans in Ukraine, they want, as it seems to them, to strike at NATO and show that NATO is powerless – that’s what it’s all about. And now we ask, can Poland be among those instructors? The Ukrainian authorities and different experts have appealed: a big request to close the sky over western Ukraine by their own means. And it can be done. And if it is justified not by the fact that they are protecting the conventional gas transportation system of Ukraine, or the suburbs of Lviv and the city of Lviv itself, or other cities in western Ukraine, but French and British instructors, training grounds, where they are, then it just suits us . If the sky is protected from the Polish side, and not from the Polish side, Russian missiles will fly in – that’s how it was. Then we will feel safer, and those Ukrainian anti-aircraft vehicles will move closer to the front.

Will there be enough chemistry between the political elites? Because somehow it is now going after that “we love – we don’t love – we are offended”, but there must still be private decisions on the part of the political elites of Poland and Ukraine.

We have come very close, I am pleased to announce that work has begun on the so-called security agreement between Poland and Ukraine.

President Zelenskyi and Prime Minister Tusk talked for an hour about the situation in the Kharkiv area. That is, at the same time, Poland understands why, among other things, there is a threat on the Suwalsky Isthmus, but, on the other hand, if Kharkiv were to fall or be surrounded, Kharkiv is a million people, waves of refugees will again pour into the territory of Poland.

What to do with them? It won’t happen, but the military and politicians have to calculate everything, right.

There is something to talk about. Well, President Zelenskyi said: it’s great that we are removing various sharp corners in our relations and returning to a clear trajectory of bilateral relations, but the big request is to close the sky. I know, I read, I know that relevant measures are being taken, military developments and legal aspects are also calculated – in cooperation with NATO. Because, for example, there was a conference in Warsaw about three weeks ago, and a representative of the NATO headquarters in Belgium said: it is a great request that Poland share its “patriots” with Ukraine.

But using Polish “patriots” to protect Ukrainian skies can also work.

Protection of French Instructors and Allied British Instructors. And Belgian instructors, etc.

At the beginning of our conversation, you said that there is a feeling that different formulas are being sought – some are public, some are not public. A forum dedicated to the peace formula is being prepared in Switzerland, there will be a public reconciliation and a non-public reconciliation of intentions, capabilities, etc. It is still unknown whether the representatives will come – not the USA, they will be there, it doesn’t matter if Biden is there or not, I think American diplomacy has worked out these moments very well. The question is in the People’s Republic of China and who will leave it. Because China and Brazil have recently produced an adjusted communique, compared to the “Chinese plan”, which was about everything and nothing – China is all for a beautiful and peaceful solution, although at the same time it is preparing its fleet for aggression against Taiwan.

I’ll start with the last one: you shouldn’t exaggerate about the fleet. Every time the president of Taiwan takes office, immediately after 5-7 days, the PRC conducts large-scale military exercises off the coast in the Taiwan Strait, many kilometers from the Chinese mainland. And they say: guys, if you don’t understand who is the master here, who is the first here, then you will not see much.

A good old Chinese ritual.

Absolutely, it is a ritual. Not minimizing the threat, of course, but this is a ritual.

Secondly, I believe that whether or not there will be a representative of China in Switzerland does not play a big role. Therefore, what will be negotiated in Switzerland, what is the agenda?

Is this a question for me? How to force Russia to stop its aggression, what amount will Russia have to compensate.

There will be no such topics at all. It won’t even be discussed, there won’t be a joint communiqué on Zelenskyi’s peace plan. Of those 10 or 12 points, three will be discussed there, and it should be in the final document: nuclear security, shipping security and prisoner exchange – everything.

Well, this is the public part. And maybe there will be a non-public part. Are all the decisions already made?

No, there will be no solutions there. Chancellor Scholz said that there will be no decisions about peace in Ukraine. It’s about something else. I really liked this initiative, I believe that Ukrainian diplomacy did a great job of everything that was needed. There it is necessary to show that the Global South does not stand on the positions of China and Russia.

Narendra Modi.

Exactly. Most of the countries of the Global South are interested in being present on the platform offered by Ukraine together with its Western allies.

And the main event took place there, I hope it will not change: the representative of India will be present. And India in all parameters, economic, military and so on, plays a big role on this global chessboard.

India is ready to replace China. In particular, in what is called the human resource, the “factory” of the world. India is ready, but it needs to work on itself. And the “litmus test” will be Russian aggression against Ukraine.

With a “litmus test” – not to the end. We remember that India, unfortunately, also helps Russia, because it buys oil from it in huge quantities. Although he says to pay in rupees, which must be invested in the territory of India. Such tricks are Indian. I would say that even so. I read Western commentators and Hindus in the same way, they still have elections for the prime minister and the parliament. Accordingly, Prime Minister Modi will be re-elected, everyone is pointing to it, and so it will happen.

It is about something else. The decision that India should compete economically with China has already been made. Western companies are leaving China for India, India is developing its advanced industries, it is present in the semiconductor market. And according to all demographic projections, India’s population has now surpassed China’s.

Not only the quantity, but also the quality – the Chinese population is much older than the Indian one.

Then we will not call it quality, but demographic age composition. True, yes, the Chinese population is getting very old and cannot recover. And the Indian population is progressing in geometric numbers.

If only those three blocs, including nuclear security, will be discussed at the summit in Switzerland, it means that all other decisions have already been made, right?

Will possibly be discussed. I understand that because President Zelensky says so. There will be no mention of them in the final document, instead these three aspects will be. As I understand what President Zelensky is saying, after this final document, work on their implementation will continue. That is, freedom of navigation: the Armed Forces of Ukraine almost drove the Russian fleet away.

They sank, let’s say so. They are afraid to go out.

Yes, for the most part successfully. Freedom of Navigation – Will China Guarantee It Will Be Implemented? Guarantees that there will be no use of nuclear weapons? And now think: Putin and his friends have to sign that he will never use nuclear weapons.

He signed the memorandum in Budapest. And the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation, where they prescribed specific answers.

The plan is different – that Comrade Xi will slip this paper to him today. And he will no longer joke and say that it is not written that way and that he does not understand what is written in this document – you interpreted it badly. Russia will not joke with Comrade Xi like that, that’s for sure. It has changed.

How much has changed?

Very much. This is not a situation where Putin, fed up with petrodollars, thinks that Europe is weak, America is weak, we can challenge them – China is behind us. It should write all of China in its characters, not in plain English. That is, these are already other games – Eastern games.

It is clear what the Eastern Games mean for Putin. But this means that the Swiss summit will not be fully dedicated to the peace formula.

It will be dedicated. We talk about the final document and what will happen next.

In what format will the negotiations take place? Will it be quiet?

In diplomacy, of course, what goes public develops quietly. A number of states will be formed that support these three points according to the Ukrainian formula. And then there are some other meetings at other sites where they discuss what this means.

Before the American election or after?

Before the American elections or after – it doesn’t matter. America’s position will be announced regarding Ukraine in the so-called security agreement. The vote on aid to Ukraine (a bipartisan vote in the House on April 21st, I believe) and what Mike Johnson did – he allowed the vote and pushed it along with the other Mikes, the chairs of the intelligence and defense committees, paved the way for the security agreement to be signed with Ukraine of America for 10 years.

America will sign its commitments, which must be followed not only by today’s American president, but also by his successor, the next American president, and for another 10 years.

That is, we enter a completely different situation. Because the Americans will no longer say this: no, you were wrong, guys, these were not guarantees – this was doom.

But the question is what this agreement will be filled with. We understand that a lot can depend on one comma, not to mention quantitative indicators.

No, there will be quantitative indicators plus what America is committed to. We all say that this is not an agreement about security agreements. These are not security agreements. In the case of a security agreement with Ukraine, one question must always be answered: what will happen, how will it be, how will the aggressor against Ukraine threaten to use nuclear weapons? And when this clause is not there, it is not about security agreements, it is about support for Ukraine. This is how we will call it, that it is about supporting Ukraine – political, military and economic. And there are very clear indicators that in the agreement with Germany, France, Great Britain, they committed themselves. Norway has committed itself on the basis of its legislation, the same will be the case in America. This document cannot be underestimated.

Just as one should not underestimate the NATO summit in Washington, which will be held in mid-July, where, as we know, Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO, unfortunately. And there will be something else, confirmation that Ukraine will be a member. Well, we know this, it was confirmed to us many times since the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008. But there will already be a road map, so to speak, to membership. And certain terms are defined. That is, it will already happen just as quickly.

I am leading to this, that the worst time for Ukraine has passed, it was from October last year to the end of April this year. And the time of this stage is approaching, which will be, God willing, the final stage of the war, because this is how everything is designed. And the end of this war is not far away – this is how everything is built, this is how the world structure is being built. A security plus, and the most important plus is assistance with military weapons and economic assistance. Nobody will let Ukraine fall.

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