Interview with Ogryzko

11/26/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

Having used the new intercontinental ballistic missile “Oreshnik” against Ukraine 
, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin began a new stage of escalation and blackmail of Ukraine’s Western partners. After all, the demonstrative strike and numerous statements about the use of an allegedly new missile are primarily a signal from the West, saying, I am ready to raise the stakes further, and you?

Currently, Putin’s rhetoric is also aimed at attracting the attention of the newly elected US President Donald Trump. If Trump gets the impression that the war is becoming so dangerous that it can no longer be tolerated, then he may want to do everything to stop the war at any cost, even on Putin’s terms.

In an exclusive interview for OBOZ.UA, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine , Volodymyr Ogryzko, shared his thoughts on what kind of response Western allies will give to Putin’s threatening rhetoric.

– Ukraine survived a missile attack on the Dnieper with a new ballistic missile, which looked like a carefully orchestrated attempt to restrain Ukraine’s support from the West, especially in the direction of allowing strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation.

After that, we have a number of statements from Vladimir Putin, saying that Russia has the right to use weapons against the objects of those countries that allow the use of their weapons against Russian objects, and the Oreshnik missile complex, which was used to attack Ukraine, can hit targets throughout Europe and the Russian Federation will continue to use it. It was even stated that the US anti-missile base in Poland “is a priority target for possible neutralization.” It seems that Putin is putting Western politicians in front of a difficult choice – I’m ready to raise the stakes further, but are you ready?

– This is certainly another escalating step on the part of Russia. We should take this seriously, but without panic. Yes, this is what gives, at least at this stage, the enemy a certain opportunity to theoretically and practically influence the situation in certain regions of Ukraine. Because, no matter what, for now these are the types of weapons that are difficult to shoot down with the means we have. Therefore, immediate help from the West will be needed here, and now. It is difficult to say whether our Western partners will do it, because the bureaucracy there has been working, as before, for years and months. This is certainly a certain threat to us.

Can this non-führer really threaten NATO countries? Of course not, because apart from this bravado, he really has nothing. After all, what is an attack on the American base in Poland? This is a de facto declaration of war on America. Americans will not be able to accept it otherwise. And it will be necessary to react very harshly. Therefore, nothing will go beyond these statements. What remains is nuclear blackmail and blackmail at the level of propagandists, who continue to work out the thesis that “we can turn the whole world into nuclear ashes.”

– Did this Putin demonstration make an impression on the West and the society there? Because there are different opinions. For example, there is a statement in an interview with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barro, who noted that Western allies should “not draw red lines” in their support for Ukraine. On the other hand, there is The Guardian, which writes about “Putin’s threats and the Oreshnik strike – as the last warning and the biggest threat to strike Western targets.” There is CNN, which considers the Russian strike on the Dnieper with an intercontinental missile as a ” nuclear warning ” .

– Two different camps have long been formed in the West. One is scared, let’s call it that, the other is realistic. Well, there was and continues to be a dispute between these camps regarding what should be done.

The frightened are talking about surrendering, making concessions and understanding Putin, and so on. And, accordingly, they prepare their frightened proposals when they want to satisfy the aggressor at the expense of Ukraine. There is another group of people, and it seems to me that it is growing, who have finally seen that it will not be possible to buy Ukraine or a part of Ukraine from Putin. We must finally put this beast in its place, drive it into a cage, because otherwise it will start causing problems directly for the EU and NATO countries.

I think that it is not important for us now what these frightened politicians say, but we should work with those who understand the real threat and explain to them that time is not in years, but in days. The situation is difficult and critical, we need very serious help. And regarding the statements of this group of frightened people, well, they listened and moved on.

– Actually, about the steps that Western partners can take. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for a “strong reaction” to the Russian strike with a new ballistic missile. On November 26, an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council regarding the Russian attack will be held. Are you waiting for some effective results for us? What should be the reaction of our Western partners?

– Regarding the emergency meeting, how many days have passed since the strike, and the partners are only having an emergency meeting, right? This means that the mechanisms provided for are actually bureaucratic. They are not what should be in emergency situations. Because this is an obvious aggravation on the part of Russia, it must be responded to quickly somehow. What do we see in the end? We are meeting for a week. Where does it fit? Is this a normal reaction to what is happening? Therefore, I think that this is the first thing to change, that is, to move much faster. Because when there’s a war, you can’t gather for a week to think.

In my opinion, you should come to this meeting not just to state, you know, that a Russian attack took place. It is necessary to have specific proposals, what should be done so that such an attack does not happen again. And it is necessary to think about countermeasures in this way, and not just to state something there.

I have a hunch that the crowd will gather and three-quarters of the time will say that it was not an intercontinental ballistic missile, but a simple missile. Therefore, I still honestly do not have the feeling that the reaction of our partners will be exactly what is needed.

It is for this reason that our political leadership must knock very loudly on all doors and at all levels very clearly and clearly demand a truly serious political response. And, by the way, to offer certain things. Why should we expect someone to think and do something for us? Why should we not propose that we have not dozens, but hundreds of Western missiles? And that it was not once, but immediately. And so that we can respond appropriately, so that this bunker-based Nedführer has the understanding that his provocations of this type will have a harsh response, and his infrastructure in the area of ​​500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border will turn into this truly buffer zone where nothing will happen. This is what needs to be talked about, this is what the reaction should be.

– There are opinions in the West that such demonstrative actions are also aimed at the newly elected US President Donald Trump and his team. By raising rates, Putin is showing how far it can go. Like, you wanted to establish peace quickly, but a nuclear war can quickly start here, so let’s sit down and quickly negotiate, on the terms that I, Putin, will propose, because this is the only way to solve it at this stage and avoid a world war.

– Do such events affect Trump’s position? Of course, they influence. But here, I think, Putin is playing the wrong game, because Trump is a person who is not used to losing. Trump is a person who has imagined that he is a winner in any business and under any circumstances. And if he is pressured in this way, the first reaction, judging by his previous actions, will be the exact opposite. There will simply be an effort on the part of Trump and his administration to put Russia in its place.

Democrats are now facilitating this. You see, there are decisions about permits. Economic sanctions are increasing. The last rather strong blow — “Gazprombank”, which is effectively removed from the international banking communication. And this will mean very serious problems for Russia. All the more so since China, realizing all the negative consequences of breaking relations with the US under Trump, is starting to take some actions that will have a very negative impact on the Russian economy. So, I think that Putin with such actions only accelerates the problems for his regime and for himself personally.

– If we continue the topic of Trump and potential negotiations with his participation. US Senator Mike Rounds, who is called Trump’s “main ally” in the Senate, strongly opposed negotiations with Putin, noting that he “will not stop” after Ukraine.

” The idea of ​​peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is untenable, Putin cannot be trusted , ” the senator said. According to Rounds, Putin will take any peace proposals as a sign of weakness in the West, and all those who believe in negotiations with him are actually fooling themselves. It is emphasized that his position is not the position of the new Trump administration. but many Republicans in the Senate, as before, share the “pro-Ukrainian” point of view, which consists in the continuation of military assistance from the United States.

– Today it is generally accepted that the Republican Party consists mainly of such “detached Trumpists”, i.e. people who are not capable of thinking and only do things that are prescribed to them from above. At the same time, there are a lot of people among the Republicans who are completely sober politicians, who perfectly understand what this brutal Russia means for the security of the United States. It is obvious that they will not take steps to ensure that America loses. Because the strengthening of Russia and its victory in Ukraine is a global loss for the United States.

If Trump wants to make America great again, as he has always said, then he needs to advance and win. Therefore, I expect that a large number of members of the Republican Party in Congress and in the Senate will create a very serious core of support for Ukraine. Moreover, against the background of all the things we just talked about, the aggressiveness of Russia and Putin is only growing.

We must work with them now and, by the way, shape the position of Trump himself through them. It is necessary to play on this, to constantly tell them that by helping us, you work for yourself, you can make money, you can increase your political influence, you can increase the pressure on China due to the decrease of Russia’s influence, and so on. Here you just need to play solitaire wisely and know who to talk to about what. For Trump to come out after the inauguration and say, I have such a plan and it should contain 80% of what we pushed through Trump’s people or directly to him and explained that these things are of interest to the United States. Thus, the American plan will be the Ukrainian plan.

– The New York Times published a rather revealing article about the fact that officials from the US and the EU allegedly called for the return of nuclear weapons to Ukraine, although such a move threatens to cause “serious consequences”. This is about a certain signal to the Kremlin – do we have room to go in terms of raising the stakes if the game really goes far?

– I am not a specialist in the field of nuclear technologies, although as a diplomat, I dealt with the problems of the IAEA, and then in various positions I had contact with specialists who take care of these issues. And I have a feeling that, in fact, technologically, Ukraine can restore the status of a nuclear state. The question is whether to do it now, how much it will cost and so on. But this publication, I think, is an interesting signal for Putin. Because they make him understand through such a downpour – if you are going to do stupid things, then such an option is not excluded. And in the end, it is not about the fact that Ukraine should create a nuclear bomb on its own.

It can be about something else entirely, for example, that the Americans will come and place their nuclear missiles here. In the end, look, Belarus lost its status as a nuclear power, yes, but Putin placed nuclear weapons on its territory. Here is a step in response. And here the question is not who will push the button, but the question is that nuclear weapons will be an element of deterrence from the territory of Ukraine.

So then I wonder how many minutes the flight to Moscow will actually be. And then, I think the situation will balance out very quickly. Therefore, I think that there are still more political, so to speak, signals to the Kremlin than practical history.

If we talk about security, then we need not even nuclear missiles from the Americans, but their guarantee, which is real, for example, a treaty, that they take us under their protection, under their nuclear umbrella. About the fact that in the event of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the USA enters the war with the Russian Federation. And believe me, on the same day the situation with Russian aggressiveness will go to zero.

For this, it is necessary to have in America exactly that group of political figures who are not afraid, but who are realists and understand that taming the Russian aggressor is in their national interest.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/zahid-nadislav-putinu-dosit-tsikavij-signal-scho-bude-yakscho-vin-dijsno-bude-robiti-durni-rechi-intervyu-z-ogrizkom.htm