Hans Petter Midttun

Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies

The Norwegian National Defence College  Centre of Defence Strategies

Nov 15, 2025

Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 followed 15 years of testing NATO’s resolve. The Alliance’s chronic weakness and political hesitation convinced the Kremlin it could act with impunity.

Moscow seized a unique strategic window. The U.S. was divided, democracy fraying. The transatlantic link was in tatters after Trump’s first presidential term. NATO was historically weak after three decades of underfunding, downsizing, reorganisation and streamlining. The Alliance had failed to rebuild its military power after the war started in 2014, signalling the weakness we have since witnessed. Additionally, the EU suffered from internal discord, including the aftermath of Brexit.

Nearly four years later, little has changed.

The U.S. is worse off than in 2022. It has reached what Stacey Abrams calls “the ninth step in the 10 Steps to Autocracy.” Once sliding toward it, America now bears its hallmarks: democratic institutions undermined, alliances abandoned, and international norms dismissed. Washington has stopped all aid to Ukraine and, consequently, turned its back on NATO’s collective defence. It threatens allies with annexation and land grabs, and has ignited a trade war with Europe—while flirting with a reset with Moscow.

NATO remains unfit for purpose. Though key decisions have been approved – including the strengthening of defence budgets – their results are nearly a decade away, as decisions were taken eleven years too late. Worse, internal divisions have deepened. The Alliance’s leading member is no longer trusted: only 21% of Europeans viewed the U.S. as an “ally”; about 50% see it merely as a “necessary partner” only weeks after Trump took office. This perception has likely grown worse as his policies became clearer.

The EU stands as the only actor showing potential strength, but it still suffers from paralysis, pro-Russian members, and the structural weakness of not being a security guarantor. Even its efforts to strengthen European security and defence are being undermined by the US-initiated trade war.

This is why the war will not end anytime soon—it will expand and escalate. United we stand. Divided we fall.

“Russia can continue its war against Ukraine for a long time unless international pressure increases,” warned Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. “A weary Ukraine, a divided West, and a restrained United States indicate that time is on Russia’s side.”

He is right. Russia is preparing for a long war, not peace. The West, fragmented and hesitant, is feeding that momentum.

To end the war, Europe needs a strategic shift. If the U.S. cannot be trusted and NATO no longer serves its purpose, then Europe must forge its own military alliance—one that guarantees collective defence and includes Ukraine at its core.

“Hope is not a strategy. Luck is not a factor. Fear is not an option.”

Political cartoon: The Spectator

Comment from :

Gaspard Nicholas Perrier

I think the idear of the US as a factor is overstated. Europe, even tiny countries can topple Russias economy, so….

In 2001 Putin wanted to be a part of the west, even made a speach about it. He was refused , ridiculed, and now we have his plan B, the toddler plan, the rage plan.

Reply from Hans Petter Midttun :

Gaspard Nicolas Perrier, I believe that the idea that Russian economy can be easily toppled is misguided. After 12 years efforts, and as the Kremlin is building its own coalition of autocracies and when the majority of the global community has chosen not to join the West’s attempt to isolate Russia, I find the idea to be an excuse to avoid doing what is needed.

Dr Laszlo Nagy

Hans Petter Midttun, I can relate to your gloomy outlook while, content-wise, I respectfully disagree. Can russia continue forever like this? Not on the self-devouring path it is set. The closest parallel may be Iran (yes, after 45 years the mullahs are still in power). But then zero investment, public or private, plus this mind-blowing death toll, plus Ukraine being very effective destroying russia‘s oil infrastructure will only take them so far. No, the putinist war regime won‘t survive another decade.

Morten Torstensen

Dr. László Nagy : The putinist regime might fail, but there are others who will take over. It will be an upheaval, but in 10-15 years they will give it another go. It is a deeply ingrained process, that was inherited from the Mongol hordes.

Amara Grap

I think the joining of Ukraine in JEF is the most underreported news of the last week.

For those who don’t know, the JEF countries are essentially NB8+UK.

The Nordic-Baltic 8, NB8, is a 30+ years long military + other kinds of cooperation, and is Ukraine’s strongest supporter.

NB8 has long said Ukraine belongs in NATO and showed many of that group agreeing to troops and other -real- military help in Ukraine starting Summer-Fall 2024, long before the “Coalition of the Willing” was formed.

The Kiel data shows these countries roughly at the top of support to Ukraine. They are also the highest spenders in their own Defense.

I tend to think that this is one of the General’s most important accomplishments since becoming ambassador to the UK.

Hans Petter Midttun

Amara Graps, you are absolutely right. That’s why my article on the coalition of Like-Minded countries is anchored on the NB8.