Yuriy Kobzar16:37, 11.11.24
The configuration of the front during the winter-spring will determine the positions of the parties in the negotiations.
The next four to five months at the front will be crucial and will determine the positions with which both sides will enter peace negotiations . Reuters writes about this with reference to interlocutors in Kyiv.
A senior Ukrainian official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said that Donald Trump’s return to the White House is focusing Kyiv’s minds on a possible end to the war.
“This winter is a critical moment… I hope the war is coming to an end. Right now we will determine the positions of both sides in the negotiations, the initial positions,” the official said.
In particular, Ukrainians are also waiting to see who Trump will choose for key positions in the field of security and defense, in order to find out how he will shape policy towards Ukraine. For example, it is already known that the new Trump team will not include former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who is considered pro-Ukrainian in Kyiv.
A Kyiv official said that Ukraine’s invitation to NATO is “less likely” after Trump’s victory, and acknowledged that there is a risk of military aid cuts under Trump.
“I hope the Biden administration will try to avoid that risk by accelerating the pace of (its) aid,” the official said.
At the same time, Kiev hardly hides its disappointment with the Biden administration, whose steps in helping Ukraine have been weak and insufficient, especially in the last year.
“The mood in Ukraine is quite gloomy. You can see the growing frustration in Zelenskyi’s latest statements,” said a high-ranking diplomatic source in Kyiv.
The Ukrainian official expressed skepticism that Biden would offer something substantial to Ukraine as part of his farewell, such as lifting restrictions on long-range strikes.
“Who is Biden now? He has lost a lot of credibility. I hope he has the courage to do something. But I don’t have high hopes,” the official said.
(C)UNIAN 2024
Next year today, the war will be over, on whatever terms we will see. Most likely Ukraine is 20% smaller. The rest is up for the future…………………
The year before last was crucial, the spring of 2023 was crucial, last summer was crucial, this summer was crucial, now is crucial, the next fives months are crucial … yawn.