01/17/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

With the exception of F-16 fighters and ATACMS long-range missiles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have virtually the entire range of weapons that the West can provide. But the most important thing is not the list, not specific samples, but their number. A very large number. This is exactly what game-changing weapons are – weapons that can change the course of the war. After Ukraine receives long-range ATACMS missiles, only tactical nuclear weapons will remain.

As for the current situation at the front, in some areas in the east it is quite difficult. Unfavorable weather did not become a hindrance for the Russian occupation army, but now the enemy began to throw less equipment into battle, but more personnel. However, it cannot be ruled out that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is preparing a counter-offensive operation. This opinion was expressed by military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

– The Main Intelligence Directorate told us about the goals of the aggressor country. This is the establishment of complete control over the Lugansk and Donetsk regions within the administrative borders, the retention of the remaining occupied territories and the depletion of Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, said that at present the Ground Forces are focused primarily on holding positions along the eastern section of the front with a length of 1000 km. In your opinion, can either side advance?

– There are no surprises here. It is obvious that we have gone into a state of defense. It is obvious that the Russians have offensive plans, but now they are hampered by weather conditions. These swings with plus and minus temperatures do not allow them to launch a full-fledged offensive in some areas that they have already set their sights on. They need the ground to freeze. When it freezes, it will… It completely depends on the weather conditions.

– Can the same be said about the Ukrainian Defense Forces? That their plans are also largely dependent on weather conditions?

– No. I mean only offensive operations. As far as I understand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not currently planning offensive operations, so for them logistics are not as relevant as for the Russians, who are trying to advance, when these logistics must follow the advancing troops.

We are now on the defensive, logistics are already more or less streamlined. Therefore, even if the weather has an impact on us, it is not critical.

– The destruction of the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and the Il-22 airborne command post – can we say that thanks to this successful operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, our air defense has strengthened today?

“It strengthened even earlier.” Let’s remember May 2023, when planes were shot down over the Bryansk region, let’s remember December 2023, when three Su-34s were shot down at once in the same Kherson direction. This is an ongoing, gradual process.

Plus, we mean that this is a planned operation, a planned action. So – yes, our air defense has strengthened. But we cannot yet say that we can completely cover the entire territory of Ukraine. However, we are capable of delivering very heavy blows to the Russians.

– Do you think this fact, as well as some recent news from the front, in particular that the Defense Forces destroyed the enemy Osa air defense system with the help of HIMARS , all this indicates that Ukraine may have received more military assistance, than the one they talk about openly?

– I don’t see such signs. The Osa air defense system is a military air defense system that is located near the front line, like the Strela-10. Therefore, their destruction on both sides is a constant process. I don’t see that more Russian air defense systems have been destroyed recently.

Yes, there were plus three air defense systems in construction on January 16, but these complexes were used by the Russians on the left bank. There they are destroyed by drone strikes. But I personally did not see a fundamental change in tactics or an increase in Russian losses.

– Do you think that Ukraine has the opportunity to get weapons that will change the course of the war, game – changing weapons ? If so, what kind of weapon can be called such?

– For example, I do not consider F-16 fighters to change the situation on the battlefield. I am convinced that we have now received the maximum range of weapons, the only question is the number of samples.

For cruise missiles – the same Scalp, Storm Shadow. We just need more missiles. Taurus? Perhaps they would strengthen us because they have longer range than Storm Shadow. But here the question comes down to the number of aircraft that can use them. We all understand that the number of Su-24s with which the Taurus can be used is not too large; there are certain restrictions.

Regarding HIMARS, yes, we have enough launchers, but not enough missiles. I think that the West has given us the maximum of what it can give, without reducing its own defense capability. We need rockets. You can talk about self-propelled artillery installations, and there, too, the only problem is shells.

As for the weapons that will change the course of the war… Now, unfortunately, the situation is such that only the massive use of these weapons can change something. And then, after ATACMS, only tactical nuclear weapons follow.

– The report of the American Institute for the Study of War for January 15 states that positional battles continued in the area of ​​​​Bakhmut and Avdievka, but no territorial changes occurred. Do you think that weather also plays an important role in this section of the front? What’s your forecast?

– I cannot say why the Institute for the Study of War presents such information, because, according to unofficial data, there are quite active military operations there. The Russians are stubborn. They redeployed additional forces. A very difficult situation near Bakhmut, near Khromovo, near Avdeevka, near Stepnoy, near Vodyanoy, where the situation is very critical for us.

The front line there has been virtually destroyed, there is nothing to cling to, a huge gray zone between our and Russian positions. This allows Russians to work as DRGs, in mobile groups. And this pressure is constant. At least that’s what I heard about. Weather conditions did not reduce the pressure. It’s just that the Russians use less equipment and more people, more assault groups, more Storm-Z – more of everything.

The situation there is very difficult. I don’t think there can be any positive dynamics for us in the near future. There are no such markers yet. Perhaps the General Staff is preparing some kind of counter-offensive operation, but so far this is not noticeable.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/u-vsu-uzhe-est-oruzhie-game-changing-dalshe-tolko-yadernoe-intervyu-s-zhirohovyim.htm?_gl=188f5rm_gaMTI1ODcwNjQxNC4xNzAwMjk2NDUx_ga_JBX3X27G7H*MTcwNTQ3MTM0NC4xMDAuMS4xNzA1NDcxNDc1LjYwLjAuMA..