Robin Horsfall

Jan 5, 2023

There is a lot of scuttlebutt being circulated about a major Russian offensive being planned that will come south from Belarus to Kyiv in a repeat performance of Feb 22. This narrative is not supported by intelligence sources or the practical issues involved.

Belarus is reluctant to engage Ukraine in support of Russia.
Russia ‘borrowed’ most of Lukashenko’s armour and artillery and either still have it or it has been destroyed.
Ukraine has destroyed all vehicular access points into Ukraine and mined the region.
Russia does not have air superiority and could not support land forces.
There are not enough resources to mount a serious threat from Belarus

I regard this story as misinformation intended to spread UA forces more thinly on the battle field.

If you followed my earlier posts you might recall I identified the UA advance into Luhansk from Kharkiv as an opportunity to outflank the Russian front in Donbass. Ukraine has fixed the main Russian army at Bakhmut and are advancing on Kreminna. If they take this strategically important town they will cut the main supply route from the north to Donbass and be in a position to get behind established Russian defences and perhaps start rolling them up form the north to the south.

Alternatively that might be too predictable. UA Generals are getting very good at deception.

Russia has reluctantly admitted to some losses after the Jan 1st strike on the barracks at Makiivka which raised Russian public concern. They couldn’t hide this one. They claim 69 but is is more likely to be closer to 400. It is unfortunate that the Russian people do not realise that they are losing more young men than this every day while more conscripts are press ganged into their army. Many are now reported as ‘disappeared’.

The truth will out as Russian fields fill with graves.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall