15.08.2026

Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia has many vulnerabilities. Against the backdrop of catastrophically low ratings for the government and for himself, the Kremlin dictator is intensifying aggressive rhetoric, and the prospect of mass mobilization in Russia is becoming increasingly real. However, the regime is in a catastrophic state and is incapable of acts of open aggression against Ukraine’s Western allies.

Moreover, the elections to be held in Russia in September could become a catalyst for dangerous social processes that the authorities will not be able to keep under control. One way to change the regime in Russia could be the scenario of an attempted coup d’état carried out in 1991. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by Olga Kurnosova, a Russian oppositionist recognized as a “foreign agent” in Russia.

– During a meeting with the military on the cruiser “Varyag”, Putin actually threatened the European Union with the seizure of merchant ships. This was his response to the blocking and detention of Russian ships of the “shadow fleet” carried out by the EU. Does this statement indicate that the “shadow fleet” is Putin’s Achilles heel? Do you think that Putin can go beyond these threats and resort to aggressive actions against the countries of the bloc?

– Of course, I do not consider the “shadow fleet” to be an Achilles’ heel simply because the current regime in Russia has so many vulnerabilities that it simply cannot be compared to Achilles. Yes, the confiscation of the “shadow fleet” ships is certainly a painful matter for Russia. We know of several cases when they were sold, so Putin is trying to portray something of himself.

Let’s not forget that on September 20, Russia will hold a so-called election, or what they call an election. The mock election campaign is in full swing, the ratings of the government and Putin personally are catastrophically low, and therefore he is trying with all his might to create a semblance of normality. But what he is doing now – this attempt to create the impression that he has everything under control – is actually completely untrue.

Separately, in parentheses, we note that he is, as always, very bad at logic, because his phrase about the response is logically contradictory. In essence, he is talking about delivering asymmetrical blows, because they are going to deliver them in different places, but a mirror response is precisely a symmetrical response, because, as we remember, a mirror surface creates absolute symmetry.

– The situation is such that the British coast is now virtually undefended, with Russian warships constantly stationed there. Do you think that Putin could take advantage of this temporary weakness in Britain’s defenses to launch at least some kind of hybrid strike in the region?

– Russia constantly carries out hybrid strikes, and we constantly hear information about some drones that have flown into the territory, about saboteurs, about spies, so, of course, it is possible that Russia will continue to carry out hybrid strikes. But they are hybrid strikes precisely because they do not pose a serious danger. The regime cannot resort to anything more serious simply because it is in an extremely difficult state. First of all, the Russian economy is in a very difficult situation, so Putin definitely cannot expand his functions and capabilities further.

– How do you assess the current situation inside Russia? You have already mentioned the so-called elections that will be held at the end of September. The Yabluko party, the only political force that advocated an end to the war, was removed from the elections for far-fetched reasons. In addition, we see that attacks on the warehouses of the Wildberries marketplace are ongoing , which, of course, also cause a certain reaction in Russian society. Do you assume that during the elections, before them or immediately after them, any significant social processes may take place inside the Russian Federation?

– Still, there is still a little more than a month left until the elections, and the situation is developing quite rapidly. We understand perfectly well that “Yabluko” was removed from the elections precisely because its rating was growing very quickly. Accordingly, it is clear that in conditions where there is no column “against all” on the ballot, the only ones who will be able to vote for in these elections are some single-mandate candidates who still remain, in particular “Yabluko” or some others who are more or less known to people. As for the half of the Duma, which is elected according to party lists, there is no one left there at all for whom one could vote with a clear conscience.

Therefore, one should not think that the elections can lead to a change in power. No, of course not, but since the situation will still be increasingly aggravated politically, the elections can become a kind of catalyst for further events. As we know, this happens very often in post-Soviet countries: it is after the elections that some political upheavals begin – either a “velvet revolution” or something else.

Therefore, it is possible that these elections could become a point after which the situation will escalate. A separate question is how ready the authorities will be to resort to some openly repressive measures, and what the people will be ready for.

But again, the danger of a new wave of mobilization, conscription, or something similar, which will aggravate the situation, is growing; in Siberia, cattle expropriation has begun again, so the prerequisites for exacerbation are becoming more and more. Therefore, yes, I believe that after the elections, the situation may get out of the control of the authorities.

– President Zelensky, without going into details, stated that Ukraine, together with international partners, has developed a general plan to end the war and increase pressure on Russia. He said: “Putin does not want to stop this war, but he will stop it , we have a plan, we understand what needs to be done. This is a joint plan with our partners.” He added that the war must be brought back to Russian territory so that Russian society can feel its consequences and put pressure on the authorities. In your opinion, what can really force Putin to end this war?

– Just in August, we celebrate another anniversary of the State Emergency Committee (the State Emergency Committee is a self-proclaimed government body in the USSR that existed from August 18 to 21, 1991, which tried to remove President Mikhail Gorbachev from power and disrupt the signing of a new Union Treaty. – Ed.). It seems to me that this is the most effective way. If we recall what the State Emergency Committee did? It declared that the President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev was unable to fulfill his duties due to his health.

So if a group of comrades decides that Putin is unable to fulfill his duties due to health reasons, then I think this time everyone will applaud and completely agree with it. Here is one scenario for you, but there are probably others.

– The last question is about Putin’s residence in Gelendzhik. Our Defense Forces are methodically destroying air defense and electronic warfare equipment in the area of ​​this residence. Do you admit the purely theoretical possibility that the Kremlin dictator could be destroyed in this, say, remote way?

– Well, I certainly admit the purely theoretical possibility, but as we see, Putin is currently in the Kuril Islands, as far away from Gelendzhik as possible. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will go to Gelendzhik.

But the fact that a strike on Putin’s residence in Gelendzhik is apparently being prepared is, in my opinion, clear to everyone. Everyone is waiting for this to happen, because this is a famous residence, about which Navalny once made a film (The investigative documentary film of the Anti-Corruption Foundation “Palace for Putin. The Story of the Biggest Bribe” was released on January 19, 2021. – Ed.). It would be very, very interesting to see what’s inside after a corresponding strike.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/situatsiya-v-rosii-mozhe-vijti-z-pid-kontrolyu-kurnosova-nazvala-vrazlivi-mistsya-rezhimu-putina.htm