Yuriy Kobzar16:59, 08/17/24

Next year, the expenses will be halved, and then halved.

Starting next year, Germany will cut military aid to Ukraine in half, and from 2027 – tenfold. This was reported by the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).

It is noted that the German government has introduced strict budget saving measures. The military equipment that has already been approved will be delivered to Ukraine, but any additional applications from the Ministry of Defense will not be approved. Apparently, it was a request from Chancellor Olaf Scholz directly.

Thus, for the current year, Germany will spend 7.48 or 8 billion euros on aid to Ukraine (depending on the calculation method). The maximum planned spending limit for 2025 is 4 billion. Only 3 billion is planned for 2026, and half a billion for 2027 and 2028. An interlocutor in the federal government said that Berlin has reached the point where Germany can no longer make any promises to Ukraine: “The end of the event. The pot is empty.”

However, the Ministry of Finance claims that the situation is not as it seems. In the letter of Finance Minister Lindner dated August 5, sent to FAZ, it is said that there will be no sudden reduction of actual aid to Ukraine. It’s just that in the future, money for arms to Ukraine will not come from the federal budget of Germany, but from the frozen assets of the Russian central bank. Ukraine’s allies have frozen about $300 billion in Russian assets and recently decided to use the proceeds from those assets to finance a $50 billion loan to Kyiv. Now Lindner expects that with this money Ukraine will “cover a significant part of its military needs.”

However, FAZ emphasizes that the decision of the G7 countries to use Russian assets is actually far from being implemented in practice and is legally controversial. International negotiations are ongoing, and none of the German politicians with whom FAZ journalists spoke knows how much time will pass until this money finally goes to arms for Ukraine. 

Journalists note that Scholz’s office is full of “great optimism” regarding the new financing scheme for Ukraine’s military needs, but in the specialized departments of the government and parliament, on the contrary, equally great skepticism prevails. 

Ukraine has already felt the reduction in supplies

“At the moment, it is more than doubtful whether it is possible to use Russian money in the future. But the fact that the freeze on payments [from the budget of Germany] will start to take effect is certain. Its consequences are already being felt,” the newspaper writes. 

One source reports that due to a change in approach to funding Ukraine’s needs, the delivery of the existing IRIS-T air defense system has recently failed to be financed. The manufacturer, Diehl Defense, offered to deliver immediately after the devastating Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital, as another buyer was ready to give up this SAM in favor of Ukraine. However, the German government did not allocate money for this supply – against the will of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

According to FAZ, the lack of funding is already affecting the situation in the war zone. Some of the German guns at the front have so little spare parts and ammunition that they can only fire three or four shells a day. Individual copies of Leopard 1A5 howitzers and tanks were repeatedly “cannibalized”, that is, used as spare parts donors, due to the lack of new supplies of spare parts from Germany. 

The ruling coalition and the German opposition criticize this termination of funding to Ukraine. Ingo Gedehens from the CDU parliamentary group says that Scholz and his deputies “arranged an unprecedented spectacle of hypocrisy.” On the one hand, the chancellor has repeatedly promised to “support Ukraine with weapons if necessary.” On the other hand, now he wants to be “chancellor of peace”.

Deputy Schwartz from the SPD coalition party fears dire foreign policy consequences of this decision. The months-long delay in American aid last winter and spring has already caused serious damage to Ukraine.

“If Germany, as the second largest donor, takes a break now, it will be difficult for Ukraine,” he says. 

If Ukraine loses the war, according to Ukrainian estimates, up to 15 million Ukrainians will become refugees. “How many will come to Germany? In the end, what Putin has wanted for years will happen: Germany and Europe will be destabilized,” says Schwartz.

(C)UNIAN 2024