Russia is increasingly financing the war against Ukraine through the hidden emission of rubles. Due to the lack of market funds, the Kremlin is forcing state banks to buy federal loan bonds, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation provides the necessary liquidity for this.

As Censor.NET reports , citing the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine , formally it is about the placement of federal loan bonds (OFZ), but in fact the banking system is being used as a mechanism for creating new money to finance military spending.

According to intelligence, the scheme works like this: the Russian Ministry of Finance issues government bonds, state banks buy them back, and the Central Bank provides financial resources for such operations. As a result, the budget receives the necessary funds, but at the cost of increasing inflationary risks and the economy’s dependence on issuance.

To attract additional resources, the Russian Ministry of Finance has already registered two new issues of OFZ floaters – for $6.4 billion maturing in 2037 and for $12.8 billion maturing in 2042. As of July 1, Russian banks already held $248.1 billion in government bonds, which is about 9% of the assets of the entire banking sector. Since the beginning of the year, their portfolio has grown by another $6.5 billion.

The SVR explains that the main reason for this step was the sharp increase in the Russian budget deficit. In the first half of 2026, it reached almost $77 billion, and additional military spending may exceed the initial plan by another $51.3–64.1 billion. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts that by the end of the year the budget deficit may increase to $105.1 billion.

At the same time, the market is no longer ready to lend to the Russian budget on the government’s terms. Due to high interest rates and low demand, the Russian Finance Ministry cannot place bonds at an acceptable price. In June and July, the department was forced to cancel auctions for the placement of OFZ at least three times due to investors’ demands to increase yields.

The Foreign Intelligence Service emphasizes that the forced mobilization of resources from state-owned banks does not solve the problem of the deficit, but only masks it. Such a model increases the budget’s dependence on the Central Bank, concentrates state debt in the banking system, and increases inflationary pressure, effectively transferring war financing to an emission resource instead of market mechanisms. Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/n4015675

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