Mar 19, 2024

Ukraine is successfully stretching Russia’s air defences. With an active 1000km border Russia has commited most all of its ground to air defences to front lines in Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Even with these defences in place, successful drone attacks still take place against ground forces.

Attacks have continued to take place against the Kerch Bridge which was damaged again two weeks ago putting one lane out of action. Sebastopol the main Russian port in Crimea has received repeated strikes. No matter how hard Russia tries in cannot defend everywhere.

Despite limited artillery ammunition, Ukraine has ramped up the production of drones to one million per year and hopes to double that in 2024. In many ways this will compensate for the shortage of 155mm artillery rounds required for land offensives.

With Russian air defences stretched along the front lines gaps were bound to appear, opening routes for attacks on Russian infrastructure. Over last weekend three more oil refineries were hit hard, making an estimated sixteen strike on oil refineries inside Russia in the past two weeks.

When Russian missile air defences operate against drone attacks they reveal their positions, which in turn make them vulnerable unless they move. While they change position they are inoperable creating even larger holes to fly drones through.

Russia relies almost solely on oil for revenue. Refineries are large fixed targets. They cannot be hidden or moved. The whole Russian economy needs them. Ukraine has no such dependency. It is much easier to put refineries out of action than fields of crops.

In the coming months Russia will continue to make dire threats of escalation in the hope of influencing the populations of western governments. It is hard to comprehend ‘escalation’ when Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine fighting alone. Putin will make gestures about ceasefires, perhaps with President Macron. Macron is in danger of making a fool of himself if he thinks a ceasefire will help Ukraine.

Soon, two million drones will be operating in swarms against fixed targets that Russia needs to survive. To survive Russia’s economy needs to stop the drones, I don’t see how they can.

Ukriane has penetrated Russian air defences as far north as St Petersburg, and 1000km East into Russia. Drones are cheap to produce, versatile, portable, easy to operate and deadly. There is a tipping point coming when Russia must choose to lose ignominiously, withdraw but retain a nation state, or collapse from within.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares

Robin Horsfall

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F16’s

Also writing on LI today is Maryna Chekh:

‼️ Soon F16s will protect Ukraine against threats from the air.🇺🇦

“We’re on schedule”: Denmark explained when Ukraine will receive the first F-16s, media…

The head of the Danish Foreign Ministry, Lars Lücke Rasmussen, is proud that Ukraine will receive the first six F-16s from his country. According to him, all problems have been solved and the planes will soon start hunting for Russian missiles or kamikaze drones.

Ukraine has solved the problems related to the level of knowledge of the English language among pilots and the unpreparedness of the infrastructure. Preparations are on schedule, so in a few months the Armed Forces will have Western F-16 fighters.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lücke Rasmussen told reporters that he was proud of the actions of his country, which will be the first to provide F-16 aircraft. According to him, the first fighters will arrive in Ukraine in 2-3 months.

The politician also explained exactly how the first F-16 aircraft will be used: they will work in the air defense forces.

“We definitely plan to be able to deliver the first six F-16s this summer, we’re on schedule,” Rasmussen said.

🇺🇦