1 September 2026
Russian authorities have critically downgraded their forecast for oil production in Russia in 2026–2029, also lowering estimates for petroleum product exports this year and next, amid increasing drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, Reuters reports, citing the government’s draft macroeconomic forecast.
Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the European Union has largely banned imports of Russian oil and fuel, a significant source of income for Moscow. Numerous drone attacks have also caused significant damage to Russian oil refineries, reducing petroleum product production and causing gasoline shortages across the country. Oil production is also suffering, as the ability to redirect the freed-up crude oil volumes for export is limited by the capacity of transport and port infrastructure, the Central Bank wrote.
In the baseline forecast, the government lowered its oil production estimates for 2026–2029 by 16–20 million tons compared to the previous forecast made in May. Officials expect oil production this year to fall by 17.2 million tons to 494.2 million tons by 2025, approaching a 17-year low. Next year, according to government estimates, production will rise to 500 million tons, and in 2028–2029, it will increase to 505 million tons, but will still lag behind the 511.4 million tons in 2025.
Russia’s oil exports this year could rise to 244.7 million tons (7.5 million tons higher than the May forecast) after 230.8 million tons last year, but will decline to 232.5 million tons in 2027, after which they will sharply fall to 216.6 million tons in 2028–2029, the government believes.
Officials expect a significant decline in petroleum product exports this year—by 27.3 million tons compared to 2025—to 98.5 million tons, 24.1 million tons below the May estimate. Next year, petroleum product exports are estimated to increase to 113.1 million tons, but will be nearly 13 million tons below last year’s level and 21 million tons below the previous forecast.
So, we can assume that mafia oil production has fallen to a 27-year low this year.