July 14, 2026
Putin does not believe that Ukraine’s strike campaign can break Russian society. He reads it as a Western attempt to make his position fragile, and he is drawing conclusions from that reading which are not the ones being anticipated in Western capitals. This matters because the assumption underpinning current Western policy is that mounting pressure will eventually bring him to the negotiating table. The bulletin sets out what the Kremlin actually concludes from the pressure it is under, why that conclusion produces an incentive to escalate rather than to soften, and where the escalation is most likely to go next.
Domestically, the fuel crisis has become the central issue of Russian politics, and the way the authorities are managing it tells you a great deal about how the system now works under strain. Andrei Melnichenko’s essay in The Economist has been read in incompatible ways; R.Politik’s reading differs from all of them, and even if the essay changes nothing in practice, it may mark the beginning of something consequential for the fate of the regime. The issue also covers Lukashenko’s narrowing room for manoeuvre between Moscow and Kyiv, the pre-election party congresses, the arrests around the Rotenberg brothers, and Moscow’s decision to install an outsider in South Ossetia for the first time since 2008.
R.Politik Bulletin No. 13 (187) examines how these decisions are taken under pressure.
Tatiana Stanovaya
A pillar of R.Politik
Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder and lead analyst of R.Politik, stands as a recognized authority on Russian politics. With her deep-rooted experience in Moscow’s think tank sphere, she frequently contributes to the international media landscape and is a trusted source for journalists globally.
Born in Moscow in 1978, Tatiana’s journey into political analysis began during her university days. In 1998, her analytical prowess led her to join steel giant Severstal. Her journey then took her to the PR agency Tels-Media, which maintained a close working relationship with Severstal. 2003 marked a significant shift in her career when she joined the Centre for Political Technologies, one of Russia’s foremost and oldest think tanks in post-Soviet Russia. Her contributions were swiftly recognized, and she was entrusted with leading their analytical department. In this capacity, she engaged with foreign diplomats, top-tier Russian officials from the Presidential Administration, government, and regional bodies, and collaborated with eminent business entities including Novatek, Sberbank, Avtovaz, and others. Amidst these endeavours, she earned her MA in Public Administration from Moscow State University.
In 2010, Tatiana relocated to France but continued her association with the Centre for Political Technologies. Her vision for an independent, clear-eyed analysis platform culminated in the founding of R.Politik in March 2018. By June 2019, she had associated with the Moscow Carnegie Center as a nonresident scholar. However, in the turbulent aftermath of Russia’s initiation of the war against Ukraine in 2022, which led to the Moscow Center’s closure, Tatiana found her new academic home in 2023 at the Berlin-based Russian Eurasia Carnegie Center, where she serves as a senior fellow.
Her insights have graced the columns of many leading Russian and international publications, with features in The Washington Post, The Guardian, NPR, Le Figaro, The Wall Street Journal, AFP, Reuters, and Foreign Policy, to name a few.
The R.Politik team comprises dedicated editors, interns, and staff members, all working cohesively to maintain our website’s excellence and ensure seamless CRM operations.
Unfortunately, to read the whole report requires a sub.
Nevertheless, what can be seen is still important to know.
Tymofiy Mylovanov
President, Kyiv School of Economics : –
Applebaum: Russians say they have no fuel, can’t do their jobs, and don’t know what comes next. But ordinary Russians have little impact on the Kremlin.
Don’t view Russia through a democratic lens. Propaganda says Russia is winning; reality says Russians are worse off.
Applebaum: Putin mentioned a town that doesn’t exist and described a settlement as surrounded, with no evidence.
Either he makes things up, or someone misinforms him about the battlefield. He may be delusional, or his circle feeds him what he wants to hear.
Applebaum: Putin may try mobilization, but I think it would fail. Russians would resist joining the army as they learn that the front line is a death sentence.
That could drag out the war for months, but I don’t see Russia winning or turning the tide this year.
Applebaum: Ukraine does not need a D-Day landing in Crimea.
It needs to make the peninsula unviable: make the settlers who moved there after 2014 question their choice, go home, and undermine Putin’s claim that Crimea is permanently part of Russia.
Applebaum: When Putin took Crimea in 2014, he looked weak and unpopular. Crimea gave Putinism new life.
It made Russians believe Russia could be great again, revived imperial feelings, and gave Putin the achievement he points to.
Applebaum: Military loss has often changed Russia. Russians tell themselves they never lose wars and won World War II.
Russia has lost many wars, and each loss hit hard. The shock comes when propaganda meets reality.
Applebaum: Belarusian leaders are hedging. They see Russia is not winning. They see Crimea.
Lukashenko may have better information than Putin. Power is beginning to shift, and people are starting to say Russia might not win this war.
Applebaum: Europe will not go back to 2014. I don’t see most European countries saying the answer is to keep doing business with Russia and hope it calms down.
Nobody thinks Russia will keep Crimea and stop there anymore.
“Nobody thinks Russia will keep Crimea and stop there anymore.”
Crimea could be the undoing of putler. There is no gas, electricity, money, water and a shortage of food. So far putler has never mentioned anything about the situation in Crimea. If he says nothing, no problem exists. Sooner or later he will have two choices, either declare an evacuation, or leave the citizens to their own devices. Either could be fatal for the terrorist.
Yes, it’s the essential ingredient of a Ukrainian victory and defenestration of putler.