The Estonian Trap That’s Making Russia Think Twice (video commentary)

01/19/2026

Estonia says it will use lethal force against masked Russian intruders on sight, and in this video I explain why that blunt warning is aimed less at border guards and more at Moscow’s favorite gray-zone tactic: maskirovka. This is about destroying “ambiguity” before it can harden into a fait accompli.

I break down how Russia has used unmarked troops “little green men” for decades to buy time, sow confusion, and trap democracies in legal debates, why places like Narva in Estonia are tailor-made for this kind of probe, and how Estonia is deliberately moving the escalation threshold forward. Russia used this tactic prior to the Ukraine War in Ukraine. What Estonia is doing here is deterrence by clarity, with real risks and very real stakes for a frontline NATO state.

Hey friends, I’m Wes, editor of Eyes Only on Substack, US military veteran, and creator. If you want analysis of how hybrid warfare actually works, with some military humor thrown in, hit subscribe.

Glory to Ukraine. Glory to the heroes. Crimea is Ukraine.