15.10.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Considering that in recent weeks the Defense Forces have destroyed four huge enemy warehouses, and four more near the border have already been “targeted”, it can be predicted that in the long term the Russian occupation army may face a shortage of ammunition. The fact that the enemy already has certain problems with supplies is hinted at by Russian “war correspondents” [milbloggers–OFP].
Worsening weather conditions create additional obstacles not only for the advancement of heavy equipment, but also for the use of FPV drones by the defense forces, which are traditionally used as a means of countering enemy artillery. An attack on Sumy region is less likely than an enemy operation in Zaporizhia, where the enemy may try to take control of an important highway.
Former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak expressed this opinion in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– General and former commander of the US Army in Europe Ben Hodges shared quite optimistic assessments regarding the current phase of the war. In his opinion, despite the colossal resources of the aggressor country Russia, large-scale supplies from its allies, the resources of the occupation army are gradually being exhausted, primarily due to a shortage of ammunition. At the same time, he noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively using UAVs and cluster munitions. Do you agree with such positive assessments?
– I want to believe that Ben Hodges is absolutely right, that he is not just operating on his own expectations, but has access to intelligence information from the Alliance countries. And I really want to believe that this will happen. Look: over the past 2-3 weeks, Ukraine has destroyed four huge Russian ammunition depots. These are Soldatskoye, Oktyabrskoye, Toropets and a depot in the Krasnodar region.
Indirectly, Russian war correspondents said that there are problems with supplies. Like, “the army of Laos”… They like to say that, because if they say that there are problems with shells, they risk falling under the article on discrediting the armed forces of the Russian Federation. So they hint very floridly.
It is impossible to say that they have big problems with shells yet, but I want to assume that in the long term this will really affect their supply – there will be less shells. They still have approximately four huge warehouses in the European part of Russia, several kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Therefore, I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Main Intelligence Directorate already have plans to destroy these warehouses. As soon as this happens, it will really have a big impact.
– What, in your opinion, is the biggest problem of the occupation army?
– They have many problems. I can’t say that they are catastrophic, but each problem takes time to solve. For example, people. People need to be recruited. How? With PR, propaganda? Not very successful. With money? A lot of money is needed. As soon as they offered more money, people came, and then there was a plateau again, they don’t come. They need more. The figure voiced is $31,000 in one-time payments. And this is not Moscow, this is Belgorod region. I think by the end of the year we will see $40,000 in one-time payments.
Ammunition, they’re running out. Communication, they have their own issues with that. They banned Discord, the network that the units used to communicate, control the drones. So, another issue. So, there are a lot of issues that affect the intensity of the fighting.
– Military expert Alexander Kovalenko voiced a rating of problems that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may face in 2025. These are the numerical advantage of the Russian army, enemy tactical aviation and KABs, as well as the enemy’s advantage in artillery. Do you agree with this?
– Yes, in general, everything looks right. Another current problem for us is rain. Why? Because it is difficult to use FPV drones. When there is a heavy downpour or strong wind, this drone does not fly. And the Russians can use this for rapid strikes forward, when they use artillery. They launch a shell – it flies away. And our possible counteraction is exclusively in the form of drones.
– It is also known that rains are more of a hindrance to the side that is advancing…
– Yes, it is an obstacle for heavy equipment, both Russian and ours. But now for FPV drones too. Our concept was this: no artillery, but a large number of FPV drones. But now drone operators say that you can’t fly FPV drones much, they can’t be sent in bad weather. At the same time, the Russians have artillery that works in snow, rain, and windy weather.
Thus, while this weather lasts, the Russians may have certain achievements in territorial conquests. Yes, it is difficult to use heavy equipment, it is already getting stuck, weighed down. But motorcyclists, infantry, quad bikes, etc. can be used.
– The enemy has stepped up its shelling of Sumy region. However, not far from Sumy region, in the Kursk region of Russia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting an operation. Do you think that thanks to this operation, an enemy attack on Sumy region is impossible for now?
– I do not want to be unfounded. Here we need the opinion of our border guards and our intelligence officers, because the Russians can accumulate forces in the border territories. Analytics are not enough for this. It is necessary for the intelligence officers to say whether they are there, whether they can prepare this, because an offensive requires a lot of preparation. This includes people, warehouses, canteens, baths, accumulation of fuel, equipment, food, etc.
I want to believe that there will be no attack on Sumy region for now, as long as the enemy has no resources. But the south, Zaporizhia region – there is different information there.
– Do you have a negative forecast for the south?
– There will be attempts to attack. There is a settlement on the border of two regions, Zaporizhia and Donetsk, – Novodarovka. They can try to go deep into the mainland in the direction of the Kurakhovo-Zaporozhye highway, cut this road off, block our communication, force us to retreat from Kurakhovo and quickly capture a significant part of the territory without making crazy efforts.
– As they say, to enter the operational space.
– Perhaps so. Rather, cut off the path.
– Let’s hope that our military leadership is aware of this danger and takes the necessary measures.
– Certainly.
“They still have approximately four huge warehouses in the European part of Russia, several kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Therefore, I think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Main Intelligence Directorate already have plans to destroy these warehouses. As soon as this happens, it will really have a big impact.”
Not sure what Ivan Stupak means, where these depots are, but they sound like big, fat sitting ducks to me. Let’s see them blow up spectacularly as the others did.