Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

The analysis

April 12, 2024

The Ukrainian parliament has finally stopped delaying the inevitable and voted for a new law that tightens mobilisation processes, strengthens penalties for draft dodgers and allows the government to track Ukrainian men of military age who are living abroad, at its second reading yesterday. Once the law is signed by Volodymyr Zelensky, more men aged 25 and over will undergo military training for two to three months, then head to the front line in time for Russia’s summer offensive.

But not everything went smoothly. By the request of Oleksandr Syrskyi, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, lawmakers have removed provisions on demobilisation and the rotation of military personnel from the bill. Syrskyi said it was taking too long to review the more than 4,000 amendments to the bill, while reviewing the issues of grounds for dismissal from military service would take even longer. The issue, he said, was that Ukraine needed more men immediately. So the government was given eight months to come up with another draft law which would guarantee that military service is not everlasting.

Syrskyi’s intervention means that soldiers who thought they could go back to a peaceful life after 36 months of service have to wait to leave the army – again. Some Ukrainian fighters have not left the front line since Russia started a war in the Donbas in 2014. Tens of thousands have been fighting for more than two years. They are exhausted and their morale is low: what else could you expect, considering that they have no rest, few reinforcements and even fewer weapons? Parliament has voted to pay soldiers on the front line an additional 70,000 hryvnia (£1,400) a month. It’s a nice bonus, sure, but it’s nowhere near the dismissal from service that fighters have been asking for. Kyiv has to find a way to send these men home without hurting Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Ukraine’s parliament has also passed a bill at first reading which allows citizens convicted of minor offences to serve in the military. This excludes individuals convicted of serious and violent crimes like murder, sexual violence, or offences against national security. The proposal could potentially provide 50,000 more eligible recruits who have completed their sentences, along with another 26,000 who are currently imprisoned.

In the defence sector, such as in weapon manufacturing factories, men can be exempted from mobilisation through a reservation process. This procedure allows private companies and government structures to keep important employees on the job. So far, so logical. But issues arise when people try to determine what jobs are important in supporting a war-torn country’s critical infrastructure. There are certain loopholes in the legal system that open up space for abuse. This week, for example, Ukraine’s culture ministry has recognised a number of TV channels, circuses, theatres, operas and other cultural institutions as ‘critically important’ companies during wartime, allowing some of their employees to defer military service. This decision led to uproar on Ukrainian social media, with people asking if circuses are really that important when the country is fighting for its survival.

There is no talk right now about any counter-offensive: with no weapons, the only successful way to make the war painful for Russia has been to strike their military factories and oil refineries with Ukrainian-made drones. But even that strategy opens Ukraine up to problems. The Biden administration has been slamming these attacks as they risk oil rising right before the US elections. Their logic means Ukraine has to fight Russia, but not too well.

Nonetheless, conscription is set to escalate. Kyiv has fulfilled its end of the bargain by introducing more conscription rules; now it’s up to western allies to arm Ukraine, lest these soldiers find themselves grappling with the Russians empty-handed.

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Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The Ukrainian parliament has passed a new law tightening the rules around conscription. More below.
• Russian forces have seized Pervomaiske in Donetsk. The battle for the village has been raging for a year and a half.
• A Russian missile attack has completely destroyed the Trypillia thermal power plant in the Kyiv region.
• Ukraine should expect to face a large Russian offensive in late spring or early summer in the Donbas region, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief.
• Donald Trump has reportedly privately said he could end Russia’s war by pressuring Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas to Moscow.
• David Cameron met Trump to lobby for the approval of £49 billion in aid for Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will lose the war against Russia if the US Congress fails to approve the aid.
• The US Defense Secretary has slammed Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries as they risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead. Read more from Owen Matthews here.
• Ukraine’s military intelligence carried out a special operation that damaged a Russian warship docked off the exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea.
• Ukrainian drones are responsible for more than 65% of destroyed Russian tanks, according to a Nato official.
• Switzerland will host a conference on a peace plan for Ukraine in mid-June, with between 80 and 100 countries invited to attend.
• Ukrainian hackers have destroyed a large data centre used by the Russian military, energy and telecommunications industries.
• Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating the case of a journalist who was allegedly targeted by enlistment officers as revenge for his investigation into a cybersecurity chief of the Ukrainian intelligence.
• Lithuania has proposed dismantling its shuttered power stations to provide Ukraine with the spare parts needed to repair the energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks.
• French billionaire Xavier Niel is buying two Ukrainian telecoms companies – one of the largest acquisitions in the country’s history.

Wider reading on the war

Will Biden support Ukraine’s attacks on Russia? – Spectator

The Kremlin wants to make Ukraine’s second city unliveable – Economist

Zelensky warns Russia has penetrated US politics, invites Trump to Ukraine – Politico

How American drones failed to turn the tide in Ukraine – Wall Street Journal

Russian trolls target US support for Ukraine, Kremlin documents show – Washington Post

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In pictures:

Lviv, Ukraine: British neurosurgeon Henry Marsh helping to make camouflage netting for the Ukrainian armed forces. ‘My small contribution to the war effort. Slava Ukraini!’, he wrote. (Henry Marsh via Twitter)

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Quote of the week

‘No matter how much help we get, how many weapons we have – we lack people. Machinery doesn’t move by itself, weapons don’t fire by themselves, drones don’t fly by themselves. Units need to be replenished! … I understand people’s desire to live a peaceful life, to travel, to build a career. But there is an objective reality: Russia denies us the right to exist. The enemy only understands the language of force. We must force them to get out of our land.’

– Oleksandr Pavliuk, Ukraine’s ground forces commander, calls on Ukrainians to join the army, highlighting the manpower shortage faced by the military

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The war in numbers

Ukrainian air defences shot down

57 of the 82

missiles and drones launched by Russia during a large-scale attack this week

Ukrainian civilians killed or injured last month

604

a 20% increase from February, according to the UN

Hectares of forest in Ukraine destroyed

60,000

as a result of the full-scale war

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk