Jason Jay Smart
The Russian Federation has entered a new phase of internal instability that extends far beyond the battlefield lines in Ukraine. Current intelligence signals from Moscow indicate that the security apparatus, specifically the FSB, is facing a breakdown in discipline that threatens the core stability of the regime. Reported intercepted communications circulating among the Russian elite suggest that high-ranking officials are no longer coordinating their narratives, revealing deep fractures within the state security services. This infighting is not merely political; it is a direct response to the crumbling economic reality that the Kremlin has desperately tried to conceal from the public.
When the security services begin to turn inward, the financial elite react with immediate capital preservation measures. We are now observing a distinct pattern of capital flight moving from Moscow to safe havens in Dubai and China, correlating perfectly with these reported leaks. This exodus of wealth is a primary indicator that the people with the most access to state secrets no longer believe the official propaganda regarding economic resilience. The depletion of the National Wealth Fund and the spiking interbank lending rates act as accelerants to this panic, forcing insiders to prioritize their own survival over loyalty to the state.
This structural failure represents a critical vulnerability for Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine is sustained by a delicate balance of oil revenue and elite consensus. As the liquidity crisis deepens and the ruble faces renewed devaluation pressure, that consensus is fracturing. The security services are the immune system of the regime, and when they begin to attack each other, it signals that the resources required to maintain control are running out. This is the financial and security reality defining the next stage of the conflict.
“The security services are the immune system of the regime, and when they begin to attack each other, it signals that the resources required to maintain control are running out.”
This is what Ukraine have been waiting for. The elites will start to cancel each other out. Hopefully it will turn into something huge.
“This infighting is not merely political; it is a direct response to the crumbling economic reality that the Kremlin has desperately tried to conceal from the public.”
In other words, when there is no more loot to steal, the spiders will eat each other. This is what such a mafia organization will always do.
Ukraine must keep up its attacks on everything that lets the crime syndicate earn money, since the West is far too feeble and slow with its limp-wristed sanctions.
Russia’s Defense Ministry on Monday evening denied practically all Ukrainian claims of mission success in the Novorossiysk raid.
In a rare, immediate statement on a developing combat situation, the Defense Ministry said: “Information being spread by special services of Ukraine about the purported ‘destruction’ of one of Russia’s submarines in Novorossiysk military-naval port is not consistent with reality. The enemy attempt to conduct sabotage using a robot device did not achieve its goals. Not a single warship or submarine of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) based in Novorossiysk Bay suffered damage, and (all) are conducting normal operations.”