Impending humanitarian crisis.
JUL 20
‘Hunger has a unique way of overcoming fear’
Sea of Azov is closed to maritime traffic. Russia has announced all maritime traffic must halt until shipping lanes can be made safe. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks damaged more than 130 small tankers, a ferry, and a cargo ship in one week. Russian air defences have failed.
The Sea of Azov was the last open route of resupply to Crimea. Although small amounts of traffic still manages to get over Kerch Bridge, stocks of food and fuel on the peninsula are running out and Russian citizens who still have fuel are running for the border. There are reports of a queue of up to forty kilometres to exit by car back to the Russian mainland. The public cannot access cash from their bank accounts because vehicles that deliver money cannot deliver the cash for ATMs. Power cuts increase in their duration, and supplies of drinking water are limited, especially in high rise apartment blocks where without power water cannot be pumped to the upper floors.
The closure of Azov also affects other Russian exports. Rostov on Don is a main export hub from Russia to the world via the Black Sea. In 2021, Rostov Oblast exported $11.4 billion in goods, making it the 7th largest exporter out of the 85 regions in Russia. The top exports of were Wheat, Refined Petroleum, Seed Oils, Asphalt Mixtures, and Barley. Now all that has halted and is another substantial blow to an already failing Russian economy.
The impending collapse in Crimea will result in a humanitarian crisis. Russians will try to use this as a weapon against Ukraine. They will produce photographic evidence of human suffering caused by the Ukrainian siege and appeal to the UN for assistance. Ukraine knows softening their stance when their enemy is at a disadvantage would only extend the war and increase the suffering they have been forced to impose as a result of the Russian invasion.
Any ‘humanitarian’ supplies to Crimea would go directly to support Russian defences and open the door for more demands. It would also open a corridor for hidden arms to be smuggled to the remaining Russian forces. There is a chance Russia will withdraw and destroy all civilian infrastructure in Crimea to exacerbate suffering and force Ukraine to repair the damage. In the back rooms of government people are already making contingency plans for such an event. In the event of a Russian withdrawal, Crimea will need international support to recover.
There is currently a possibility of fuel riots erupting in Moscow and St Petersburg as fuel shortages and rationing get worse. People are not going to work because of the black market price of fuel. It now costs some workers more to get to work than they can earn.
Russian ballistic missiles are Putin’s only viable method of causing injury to the Ukrainian people but have little strategic value. Tragic as every death is, striking civilian population areas is of no strategic military value.
Ukraine has announced its new Freya interceptor missile as a ballistic missile defence. They will be tested in the coming weeks before going into production with the assistance of other European supporters. If the missile proves effective it will replace Ukraine’s reliance on the US Patriot system. Freya is not as sophisticated as Patriot but is far less expensive. However, provided it can do the job it will compensate in quantity for what it loses in quality. However, Freya could take up to two years to get into full production. In the meantime, the USA has indicated it will allow Ukraine to manufacture their own Patriots under licence.
In the past four years, Ukraine has proven beyond doubt low-cost innovative technology can defeat high-cost munitions militarily and economically. A shoulder fired missile in exchange for a fast jet or tank. A low-cost drone for a helicopter or single anti-tank grenade for an artillery barrel. Ukraine is increasing its drone manufacture and has declared it will produce seven million drones this year, leaving a surplus to sell in the middle east.
Putin still clings to power; he has no choice; victory has been beyond him for a considerable time. He will continue with asymmetric warfare, threaten NATO, indulge in terrorism and assassinations; he will mobilise more men, but Russia has little money or fuel to feed, arm, train and transport them. None of these attempts to extend his war will change the ultimate truths. He has no money, no allies and very little leverage.
The war will go on until the Russian people realise there is no respite from the fuel crisis, inflation, food shortages, and break-down of law and order. Hunger has a unique way of overcoming fear. If the police in Moscow and St Petersburg become disenchanted then the whole edifice will collapse. When winter comes in 2026, the pressure could escalate to breaking point.
Slava Ukraini!
I write to fight.
© 2026 ROBIN HORSFALL
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
“The impending collapse in Crimea will result in a humanitarian crisis. Russians will try to use this as a weapon against Ukraine. They will produce photographic evidence of human suffering caused by the Ukrainian siege and appeal to the UN for assistance.”
Robin understands only too well how the cancerously evil hive mind of the putinaZis works.
That is exactly what the cuntz will do in such circumstances.
Comment from WWDN :
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainians don’t need D-Day style landing in Crimea. They want to make peninsula unviable, unlivable and unattractive in order to persuade Russians to go home, undermine Putin’s idea that Crimea is a permanent part of Russia. It’s a kind of politico-military invasion.
In Ukrainian strategic literature this is framed as making continued occupation futile — not by killing every soldier on the peninsula, but by making the cost of holding it exceed its value as a staging ground for pushing toward Odesa and controlling the Black Sea.
It’s why analysts now call Crimea a strategic trap rather than a prize. You don’t have to physically occupy it to deny Russia its use. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Another comment from WWDN :
🇺🇦🇷🇺 “The loss of Crimea would spell disaster for Russian President Vladimir Putin,” Taras Berezovets, a representative of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Command…
Losing Crimea would be devastating for Putin, according to Taras Berezovets, a representative of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Command. Expert: The loss of Crimea would be fatal for Putin’s presidency.
Crimea represents a crowning achievement in Putin’s career and a symbol of Russian imperial ambitions. Berezovets observed, ‘Crimea is a sacred symbol and Putin’s phylactery. The loss of Crimea would automatically mean the dictator’s political death and the end of the Russian imperial project.
He will never be forgiven or forgotten for this in Russia.’ Putin’s emotional response during the annexation announcement highlights the significance of Crimea to his political identity. The annexation was driven by both historical nostalgia and a myth about Crimea’s supposed Russian heritage. Given the public’s reaction to its annexation, Crimea’s return to Ukraine would strike at the heart of Putin’s authority.
Berezovets concluded that the loss of Crimea would not only be painful but fatal for Putin, given its symbolic value. ‘For them, this loss would not just be painful — it would be fatal,’ he said. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Which is why Putin will never give it up no matter what the cost in live and treasure. If there are two Russians left in the world one of them will be “Defending” Crimea. The other guy onot Putin of course.
Ukraine cannot continue to rely solely on a drone blockade. they are going to have to gain and maintain control of territory.
Lockheed Martin plans bargain-rate Patriot missile to replenish low stockpiles
Lockheed Martin said it would field a new and cheaper model of Patriot missile that could hit the battlefield faster, as global stockpiles of high-end interceptors dwindle.
The company said its PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector can be made more quickly and will cost buyers less than half as much as its bestselling Missile Segment Enhancement version. Recent Army budget documents show MSE interceptors cost more than $4 million a round.
Lockheed said the new Patriot design can thwart an array of attacks, from cruise missiles to “close-range and short-range ballistic missiles.” It didn’t disclose its expected performance against the class of longer-range ballistic weapons that Russia has hurled at Ukraine to devastating effect.
Lockheed and RTX, which makes the Patriot launcher system, have pledged to meet White House demands to triple or quadruple their output of some high-tech missiles over the coming years. But military officials have also said they need more low-cost and midrange defenses in their arsenal that can be delivered in months, rather than years.
“PAC-3 was not originally designed from a manufacturability perspective,” Army procurement official Brent Ingraham said at a recent industry event. He pointed to its “hand-fabricated, hand-assembled pieces” rather than the more advanced machinery seen in automotive manufacturing.
U.S. Army officials this year launched a competition to develop a lower-cost interceptor that could be produced for less than $1 million a round. The effort calls for a blank slate by accepting new designs for seekers, rocket motors and other major components assembled into a missile that could still be fired from existing Patriot launchers.
Lockheed plans to tout its new missile design Monday at the annual Farnborough International Airshow, where military gear has grabbed headlines as much as commercial aircraft in recent years.
(From The Wall Street Journal, via MSN)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/lockheed-martin-plans-bargain-rate-patriot-missile-to-replenish-low-stockpiles/ar-AA28gLHm
“PAC-3 was not originally designed from a manufacturability perspective”
That seems like a rather large oversight…
It seems to have been designed for maximum profitability.