Svitlana Moronets

Mar 21, 2025

Vladimir Putin might have agreed to a temporary pause in striking Ukraine’s power plants earlier this week, but his war effort shows no sign of abating. Last night, more than 200 drones and missiles were fired at Ukraine, with the majority aimed at the port city of Odesa in the south of the country.

Moscow’s aerial assault left shopping centres, apartment blocks, cafes, cars and even a graveyard ablaze. At least two people were killed and 21 injured. Any hope that talk of a ceasefire might have brought some respite for Ukrainians has been shattered: the closer a truce gets, the more war seems to escalate.

On Monday, American and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia to negotiate the details of the partial ceasefire. Ukrainian officials will be there, too, but in a separate room. The US diplomats will move back and forth between the two sides.

Ukraine will present a list of energy, infrastructure and civilian sites that it wants Russia to stop targeting. Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that, if Putin breaks the deal, Ukraine will retaliate. This isn’t an empty threat: Ukraine has the means to do so. Indeed, since the start of the year, at least eight oil refineries in Russia have been struck, in addition to oil depots, pumping stations and ports used for oil and gas exports. Earlier this week, meanwhile, Russia’s oil transfer terminal in the Krasnodar region was hit – it remains on fire.

These drone attacks are a blow to Putin’s war machine, which is why, in a somewhat counter-intuitive way, a partial ceasefire works in Moscow’s favour. If Putin is afforded the time to re-arm and re-stock missiles, then Russia will be well-placed to launch an assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure later this year when the cold weather returns. Winter is when Ukraine is most vulnerable to such attacks. There’s a real danger, therefore, that if peace talks drag on until autumn, Putin could ditch official negotiations and resume strikes, with the aim of forcing Kyiv to surrender its red lines.

If Putin does agree to a partial ceasefire, even if only for 30 days, then Washington will have to demonstrate that breaking such a ceasefire will have serious repercussions. So far, Putin has outplayed Trump at every turn. The US President can talk all he likes about making great deals and organising ice hockey matches between US and Russian NHL players, but there’s very little evidence to suggest that it will stop Putin.

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Vladimir Putin rejected an immediate ceasefire but agreed to a 30-day pause on attacking energy plants.
• Ukrainian and US officials will meet in Saudi Arabia on Monday to discuss a partial ceasefire. Ukraine will present a list of energy sites they want Russia to stop targeting.
• Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Engels airfield in the Saratov region, triggering a major blast.
• Putin signed a decree ordering Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territories to obtain a Russian passport or leave by September.
• The EU decided not to confiscate Russia’s frozen assets. They will remain immobilised until Russia ends the war and compensates Ukraine.
• Volodymyr Zelensky denied discussing the possibility of America taking over Ukraine’s power plants with Donald Trump. He asked for US help in restoring the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
• Trump agreed to assist Ukraine in sourcing US-made Patriot air defences from European countries.
• EU leaders and their Canadian counterparts will meet in Paris next week to discuss Ukraine.
• Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s former president, accused Zelensky’s team of ‘moving the country toward dictatorship’ and denounced the sanctions imposed on him.
• Ukraine’s constitution is an ‘obstacle’ to peace as it forbids territorial changes, a Kremlin official said.
• Finland will lead an international coalition to assist Ukraine in building bomb shelters.
• The US withdrew from a group investigating Russia for crimes against Ukraine.

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Wider reading on the war

RAF in talks to police skies above Ukraine – Telegraph

EU plan to send more military aid to Ukraine in shambles – Politico

Trump wants to take over Ukraine’s nuclear plants. What would that mean? – New York Times

Macron is heading for a clash with Trump over his push to help Ukraine –  Bloomberg

As a major military power, Ukraine has options – New Eastern Europe

In pictures

Quote of the week

‘I don’t want us to be on Putin’s menu. We are not a salad… We are an independent state. Without us, I think it’s wrong to negotiate’.

– Volodymyr Zelensky says any ceasefire negotiations must include Ukraine.

The war in numbers:

Ukrainian-built long-range drone range test

1,860mi

Kyiv uses long-range drones to target Russian airfields and infrastructure

Americans who believe the US is not supporting Ukraine enough

46%

30% think the US is doing too much, according to the latest Gallup poll

Zaporzhizia nuclear plant supplied energy to pre-war Ukraine

20%

Trump has offered for the US to take over Ukrainian nuclear power

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

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