Jun 16, 2024
- Ukraine has intensified attacks on Crimea in recent months and looks set to hit the Kerch Bridge.
- The peninsula and the bridge are crucial for Russian military logistics.
- Ukrainian success in Crimea could mark the end of the war, defense experts say.
If there’s one place Ukraine is winning in the war against Russia, it’s Crimea, defense experts say.
At the start of the year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made it clear the battle for Crimea and the Black Sea would play a central role in the coming months.
Ukrainian success in Crimea would be a major blow for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Russia’s defeat in Crimea would be not just a defeat, but a humiliation,” Olga Khvostunova, a fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said.
In February 2014, unmarked Russian forces, dubbed “little green men,” stormed Crimea, taking control of key buildings and raising Russian flags above them.
By the end of March of that year, Russia’s Federal Assembly had formally ratified the peninsula’s annexation. The war in the Donbas began just a month later.
Ukrainians have since referred to the Black Sea peninsula as “occupied Crimea,” and Zelenskyy has continually said that any peace agreement must see it returned to Ukraine.
In the past few weeks, Ukraine has launched a series of successful attacks on the region, taking out multiple Russian air-defense batteries and striking Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.
Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula “are proving successful due to thorough preparation and systemic work, better opportunities for defense forces, satellite and aerial intelligence provided to Ukraine by NATO allies,” Elina Beketova, a democracy fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Business Insider.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, which lost its traditional naval fleet during the annexation of Crimea, has targeted Russia’s Black Sea fleet with great success using sea drones.
The attacks have allowed Ukraine to resume grain shipments through the Black Sea, which is vital for its economy, and forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to move some operations away from its naval home base in Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula.
Ukraine even said it sunk the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the Moskva.
Crimea “is the key to Russia’s Black Sea access and operations,” Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, said.
“Crimea allows for power projection over the rest of the Black Sea. Accordingly, deterring Russian naval positions in Crimea is critical for Ukraine,” she continued.
Beketova added that attacks on the peninsula and on the Black Sea Fleet were therefore aimed at depriving “Russian forces of the opportunity to use the peninsula for attacks on mainland Ukraine,” as well as disrupting the support for Russian troops in the occupied territories in the south of Ukraine.
One of the most hated symbols of Russia’s illegal annexation
The 12-mile-long Kerch Bridge links mainland Russia to the eastern coast of Crimea.
For Putin, the bridge is one of his greatest achievements, symbolizing what he believes is the “return” of Crimea to Russia.
Its destruction would, therefore, be both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a major blow to Putin.
Ukraine has already struck the bridge twice since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but it has thus far failed to destroy it.
Earlier this year, officials from Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence told The Guardian that Ukraine would target the bridge for a third time before the year was up.
They said its destruction was “inevitable.”
And there are already signs that Russia fears Ukraine may make another attack on the bridge.
Last week, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an update on the conflict that Russia had installed eight barges on the southern side of the bridge to reduce “the angles of approach for Ukrainian Unmanned Service Vehicles.”
Russia has also begun taking measures to reduce its dependence on the Kerch Bridge.
The MoD said in an update in March that Putin had announced the construction of a railway line from Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia to Crimea.
Putin said the line would stretch as far as Sevastopol and “provide redundancy” for the Kerch Bridge, the department wrote.
Some in Ukraine have taken this as a sign of Putin’s recognition of Ukraine’s threat to the bridge.
“The railway along the land corridor is recognition on the part of the Russian occupiers that the Crimean Bridge is doomed,” Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern military command, told The Economist.
Crimea has a special place in Russian hearts
Russian Empress Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in 1783, and the territory has been militarily and symbolically important to Russia ever since.
It holds a special place in the nation’s collective memory of the Soviet era, when it became a popular vacation destination for generations of workers because of its warm climate, Snegovaya said.
In 2022, massive explosions at the Saki air base, which Ukraine claimed to be behind, brought the war to vacationing Russians, who filmed the attack from beach huts.
Alexei Volkov, the president of the National Union of Hospitality Industries, told Reuters last year that tourist numbers in Crimea were expected to be down 20% to 30%, to between 6 million and 6.5 million people.
Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, told BI that by targeting the peninsula, especially Russian ground-based air-defense (GBAD) systems, Ukraine was “preparing the ground” for future air strikes once F-16 fighter jets arrived.
“Crimea is vulnerable,” he said. “The Russians have relatively limited maneuver space on the peninsula.”
“Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily. So if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here — and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD on Crimea is dealt with,” he added.
Russia has relocated its most advanced S-500 air-defense system to the peninsula, probably to protect the region from jets, Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has previously said.
“Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea,” Snegovaya said. “This offers Ukraine an opportunity to use threatening the status of Crimea as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.”
Beketova said that if Ukraine could regain control of the Black Sea and take back the peninsula — or simply put enough pressure on these areas to threaten Putin — “it will mark the end of the war.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-ukraine-began-crimea-could-end-there-2024-6
The key to holding a piece of territory is logistics. The mafia rust buckets have already been largely chased away from Crimea. Once the last link gets destroyed, it’s game over for the roaches on the peninsula. Thus, the Kerch Bridge must be sent to the fishes ASAP.
When Ukraine liberates the Crimea it might be the Moskali that destroy the bridge to prevent Ukraine from advancing to former Ukrainian territory, the Rostov. Or maybe RSM is talking out his ass? 😉
I think it’ll be much easier for Ukraine to take the Crimea with the bridge gone.
Ukraine to receive new air defense Frankenstein tank from Rheinmetall
German defense company Rheinmetall will supply a new Rheinmetall air defense tank to the frontlines in Ukraine, capable of shooting down missiles and drones, according to The Telegraph.
According to Rheinmetall, the base for the new tank will be the Leopard 1, and the most advanced Skyranger anti-aircraft system will be installed on its chassis. The creation of this new machine will enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
The Skyranger system can counter short-range threats, particularly swarms of drones and artillery fire, which are increasingly seen as decisive on the frontlines in Ukraine.
“There are still many Leopard 1 main battle tanks on whose chassis we could mount the Skyranger turret with the 35 mm caliber automatic cannon,” said Bjorn Bernhard, head of land systems at Rheinmetall.
Installing the Skyranger on the Leopard will increase the ammunition load for the 35mm cannon and missiles, improve off-road capability, and allow the Leopard to traverse difficult terrain near the frontlines.
This also allows for the installation of additional equipment for target detection and tracking, increasing the number of ready-to-launch missiles.
The Skyranger 35 is a modern mobile anti-aircraft artillery system that protects troops and strategic objects from aerial threats such as drones, helicopters, and cruise missiles.
The main armament of the Skyranger 35 includes the 35mm Oerlikon Revolver Gun, capable of firing with high rate and accuracy. The Skyranger has modern sensors and radars that provide automatic target detection, tracking, and engagement. The Skyranger 35 can be mounted on various mobile platforms, providing high maneuverability and rapid deployment. The system is integrated with fire control systems and can operate within a unified air defense network with multi-layered protection.
Cooperation between Ukraine and Rheinmetall
Ukraine and Rheinmetall have already established several joint ventures. Recently, a workshop to repair equipment damaged during combat was launched.
Additionally, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are equipped with various military equipment from Rheinmetall, including Marder IFVs, Wiesel vehicles, Puma and Lynx IFVs, Skynex anti-aircraft systems, and various modifications of Leopard tanks.
[From RBC Ukraine via MSN]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-to-receive-new-air-defense-frankenstein-tank-from-rheinmetall/ar-BB1oorDD
😎👍
Awesome! Ukraine can use every air defense it can get.
Ukraine shifts strategy on Crimean Bridge after peace summit
– The Crimean Bridge is no longer important from a military point of view, so its destruction will not have the same impact as at the beginning of the war with Russia, said Dmytro Pletentchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy. This surprising statement came right after the peace summit in Switzerland. Just a few weeks earlier, Kyiv had vowed that the crossing connecting occupied Crimea with Russia would be destroyed.
The Navy spokesperson admitted that the current military transports across the bridge are sporadic. – Therefore, it no longer has such tactical and strategic significance. There is no point in destroying the bridge just to feel better, said Pletentchuk.
– This bridge carries less than a quarter of the total transport. The rest goes via the ferry crossing, which we recently attacked, reminded the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy.
As Ukrainian media remind us, in the fall of last year, a representative of the Ukrainian Navy called the Crimean Bridge a “significant target for the Ukrainian army” and promised that it “would be destroyed when the situation required it.”
The head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Vasyl Malyuk, also said in the fall of last year that his intelligence was preparing many “surprises” for Russia, including the destruction of the Crimean Bridge. He said it was a legitimate target for attacks under international law, the law of war, and Ukrainian legislation.
[Article continues on w/ history]
[From essanews.com via MSN]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-shifts-strategy-on-crimean-bridge-after-peace-summit/ar-BB1ooxtx
The Russians have closed the bridge so many times, most movement has been forced to ferries. However, the bridge must go. Not just for teh sake of appearances, but to further throttle movement and supply. If they reach the point where they can lay the main span of teh bridge (that over the shipping channel) into the shipping channel, they can throttle movement between the main pool and Azov. That would trap a number of ships. add in isolating the battlefield from Melitopol to mouth of the Dnieper they could trap a large number of Russian troops as well.
There are many military effects of wrecking the bridge completely.
Indeed, regardless what we keep hearing about the bridge … that it’s not so important anymore and blah, blah, blah … the bridge is being used intensely for keeping Crimea afloat and for its cockroach army in Ukraine. It must be destroyed!
Thanks for sharing, Larry.
“The Crimean Bridge is no longer important from a military point of view, so its destruction will not have the same impact as at the beginning of the war with Russia, said Dmytro Pletentchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy.”
Smoke and mirrors. No one can make me believe that this bridge is not being used in a significant way to transport military supplies and equipment. The roaches would be stupider than I thought.
“Cameron Manley is a Weekend News Fellow at Business Insider in London. He holds a master’s degree in comparative literature from the University of Cambridge. He has previously worked as a reporter and translator, covering Russia and Eastern Europe for The Moscow Times, The i Paper, Meduza, Worldcrunch and others. He speaks Russian, Ukrainian, French and Spanish.”
And he still can’t write worth a damn. I suffered through whole article. Dear UT, If you ever post another one of his articles, please warn me by putting his byline at the top.
Georgia should get its territory back as well. Russia needs to be dismantled and loae 1/3 of its territory. The Baltic states need to expand its territory into Russia as well.
And don’t forget Finland. The roaches must also lose Königsberg.
[…] Crimea’s dense air defense grid: Russia bolstered Crimea’s defenses by deploying advanced systems including S‑500s, rail transport redundancy, and maritime barriers around the Kerch Bridge—countermeasures driven by Ukrainian drone attacks ukrainetoday.org. […]