2 February 2025

Ukraine chose the right strategy when it aimed its drone strikes at the Russian oil industry, Dmitry Chernyshev is sure.

Ukrainian drone raids on Russian oil facilities will eventually force Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to wind down the war. The industry is already on the brink of disaster. The famous Russian blogger Dmitry Chernyshev writes about this.

A major fire at the newest Lukoil oil refinery in Kstovo. In January alone, Ust-Luga, Engels (three times), Rostov, the Novorossiysk port, a chemical plant in Kazan, an oil storage facility in Saratov (twice), oil refineries in Voronezh, Tula, Kaluga, a gunpowder plant in Tambov, an aircraft plant in Kazan, and a military electronics plant in Smolensk burned under attacks by Ukrainian drones (or, if we believe Russian propaganda, their debris).

What’s wrong with the economists who say that Russia has a ton of oil, and if Nazi Germany could produce gasoline under Allied strategic bombing, then Putin’s Russia certainly can?

Firstly, there is a lack of understanding of the importance of continuity of the entire technological cycle of fuel production. It cannot be stopped anywhere. It is like a conveyor. Oil must flow continuously. And then a drone flies in, and a fire starts at the oil refinery. And all production stops. In the same way, after one serious accident, the entire city can be stuck in traffic jams.

It is unclear where to get new distillation columns for oil refining. Russia is under sanctions and does not produce such equipment itself. China is being closely watched. Where to put the incoming oil? Pour it into storage facilities? But they quickly overflow, and tomorrow a drone will fly into them too.

Store oil in tanks at a railway station? Your tanks will run out, and the railways will stop. Stop pumping oil through pipelines? Stop pumping oil with rigs altogether? You can’t even imagine how much it costs, what a reservoir pressure maintenance system is, and what processes begin in the pipes if oil is not pumped through them (precipitation, crystallization, etc.). I will add that it will not always be possible to resume production later.

Secondly, it is unclear where to get people. Many workers were tempted by the front-line payments and went to war. Then they need to be paid a death penalty or spend their entire lives treating them for their injuries. Serious specialists do not want to risk their lives under drone attacks and quit. And what to do with people during the downtime of the refinery? Fire them? Pay them a salary?

Thirdly, this is just the beginning. It is incredibly difficult to build an industry that mass-produces drones. But then it starts working and is constantly gaining momentum. At this point, Russia’s vast territory becomes not a plus, but a minus. It is impossible to cover it with air defense systems, which are not enough even for the front.

Air defense missiles cost an insane amount of money, and no system can physically stop an attack by hundreds of drones. And fourthly, the operating oil refineries in the European part of Russia may soon simply run out. And then thousands and thousands of Ukrainian drones will look for other targets. Power plants, airfields, factories, airports… Russia will experience mass deindustrialization.

And there will be no more talk from economists about how Russia will allegedly be able to wage war forever. Equipment is running out, money is running out, people are running out – Putin will be on his knees begging for peace.

Earlier, Dialog.UA reported that a raid by Ukrainian drones paralyzed the work of one of the main oil ports of the Russian Federation.

We also wrote that Ukraine is driving Russia towards an oil collapse – Auslander spoke about an unexpected consequence of drone strikes on oil refineries.

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https://www.dialog.ua/opinion/308803_1738507527