Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Mar 8, 2024

Russia dropped a half-ton guided bomb on my friend at 3.40 p.m. on Wednesday. His charred body was found beneath the debris of the house where he was stationed. I cannot disclose his personal details out of respect for his parents, who have yet to receive an official death notification or the remains of their son. What I can share is that he was a young and incredibly brave man who volunteered last autumn to defend his country.

I am deeply distressed to begin this piece with such personal news, using it as an introduction to talk about the guided bombs, which have inflicted a huge amount of suffering on the Ukrainian army in recent weeks. But I guess these personal accounts bring the realities of war closer to readers who may be far removed from what is happening in Ukraine. Through this, I also aim to remind readers that no casualty is just a number – everyone who has died in this war had a life, dreams and people who loved them.

The deadliest recorded use of guided bombs in Ukraine was when Russian forces struck a theatre in Mariupol in March 2022, killing up to 600 civilians who were hiding in the building. Today, these weapons are wielded en masse by the Russian army on the front line, proving pivotal in capturing Avdiivka in the Donetsk region just last month. They are a type of aerial munition classified as a precision weapon. Just one can weigh up to 1,500 kilograms. They are usually released from SU-34 and SU-35 aircraft: the higher and faster the plane drops the guided bomb, the further the bomb will fly. Recently, Russia has equipped guided bombs with cluster munitions, almost extinguishing the chance of survival for anyone unlucky enough to be in the strike area.

The Russian strategy in Avdiivka was to smash through the underground bunkers that protect Ukrainian soldiers – so they dropped about 80 guided bombs on them per day. ‘These bombs completely destroy any position,’ Egor Sugar, a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Avdiivka, wrote. ‘All buildings and structures simply turn into a pit after the arrival of just one.’ When Avdiivka fell, the Russian army kept pushing Ukrainians out of the villages nearby. There was nowhere to hide: hastily dug trenches could not protect the retreating soldiers from aerial strikes. At least six villages have been lost so far.

To deploy guided bombs, Russian aircraft do not need to enter the Ukrainian air defence zone. According to Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian planes approach the combat line, about 30 miles away, to launch these bombs, which then fly to their target and strike. Ukrainian forces don’t have the resources to knock down the guided bombs. The most effective protective method so far has been shooting down the aircraft carrying the bombs with long-range weapons. Last week, the Ukrainian army claimed to have shot down seven SU-34 fighter jets (mostly in the east of the country) and an A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft. At least three of the downings have been verified.

If Ukraine had F-16s, the number of downed Russian aircraft would be much higher. The jets will start arriving in late summer – but until then, Russian forces are likely to continue burning down more villages and towns while continuing their advance. Unlike F-16s, the German-made Taurus long-range missiles may never arrive at all: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes sending them to Ukraine would pose a risk of his country becoming directly involved in the war. This argument is quite easy to debunk: ‘Putin’s red line’ was already crossed when Britain supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, France with Scalp missiles, and the US with ATACMS. None of these countries have ended up in direct conflict with Russia.

But, as always, Ukrainians have to beg for months to receive any of these weapons. If they arrived on time, maybe my friend – and hundreds of other Ukrainians – would still be alive. Tragically, they are not.

In pictures

Odesa: Ukrainians leave toys outside a nine-story residential building which was devastated by a Russian drone strike. The attack killed 12 people, including five children, who were aged between four months and nine years old. (Credit: Volodymyr Zelensky on Telegram)

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Quote of the week

‘The most dangerous scenario is freezing the war and giving [Vladimir] Putin the opportunity to work on his mistakes and launch a full-scale attack on Europe. [You have to] realise that Russia must lose if you want your children to be safe and understand that the only army that is ready to confront Russia today is the Ukrainian army… We need more missiles, drones, shells, ammunition – anything that will allow us to effectively destroy Russia until it chokes on its own blood.’

– Mykhailo Podolyak, one of Zelensky’s chief advisers, in an interview with the Telegraph.

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. All feedback is welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Valery Zaluzhny, former chief of the Ukrainian army, as Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain. Read more here.
• A Russian missile exploded near a convoy carrying Zelensky and the Greek Prime Minister during an attack on Odesa. Five people were killed and more were wounded, though neither leader was injured.
• Democrats in the US House of Representatives have launched an investigation into Elon Musk’s SpaceX following reports that Starlink is being used by Russian troops.
• The number of Ukrainian government ministries will be slashed by one-third due to the budget deficit. Some 20,000 civil service vacancies have already been cut this year.
• Britain is prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in the UK on the basis that London will recoup the money at the end of the war, when Russia is expected to pay reparations, David Cameron has said.
• Joe Biden is considering using US Army funds of up to $200 million to fund immediate aid for Ukraine while he awaits the approval of a $60m aid package, which is currently stalled in Congress.
• Ukraine’s military has sunk the Sergey Kotov, a Russian vessel, near occupied Crimea. Some seven crew members were killed and at least 27 were injured.
• Ukraine has the capacity to produce 150,000 drones every month and may be able to produce two million drones by the end of the year, Kyiv said.
• Kyiv is willing to accept restrictions on EU trade to defuse tensions with Warsaw but has urged the bloc to ban imports of Russian grain.
• Kyiv won’t allow Russian gas to flow through Ukraine after the current contract, which was signed in 2019, ends in December.
• Ukraine’s parliamentary committee has backed a bill on outlawing Moscow-linked churches ahead of the final vote. The bill would ban any religious organisations affiliated with war propaganda or justifying the Russian invasion.
• The European Commission has presented the first defence industrial strategy at the EU level. The strategy has suggested boosting ties with Ukraine by supporting its defence industry and fostering cooperation in defence sectors.
• The International Criminal Court has issuedarrest warrants for two Russian military commanders accused of carrying out strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure during the winter of 2022.
• A Russian court has handed a 20-year prison sentence to Dmytro Yevhan, a Ukrainian servicemember who was captured defending the Azovstal steel works plant in Mariupol.

Wider reading on the war

Ukraine enters new phase of war with Russia: dig, dig, dig – Matthew Luxmoore, Daniel Michaels (Wall Street Journal)

Ukrainian soldiers near Kupiansk prepare for potential Russian offensive – Asami Terajima (Kyiv Independent)

Shift in Russian tactics intensifies air war in Ukraine – Constant Méheut (New York Times)

Soldiers and civilians fear what comes next as Russia gains momentum in eastern Ukraine – Nick Paton Walsh, Anna-Maja Rappard, Brice Laine (CNN)

Ukraine is now fighting Russia in Sudan – Ian Lovett, Nikita Nikolaienko, Nicholas Bariyo (Wall Street Journal)