09/11/2026

It is official. Russia’s 2026 Offensive has failed. I examine reports that Ukrainian forces have dismantled the Russian salient north of Lyman, driving Russian troops back toward the Zherebets River and potentially restoring parts of the front to its May 2025 position. Using OSINT mapping and Russian Telegram and milblogger accounts, I separate what is reported from what remains uncertain—including claims of routed regiments, exhausted units, disrupted supply lines, and pressure around Ivanivka, Terny, and Yampol.

The stakes extend well beyond one salient. Lyman is an important approach to the Donetsk fortress belt, including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. If Russia has lost ground that took more than a year of costly fighting to gain, its infantry-led path toward those cities becomes harder still. I also assess Russian-source allegations that false reporting concealed Ukraine’s counterattack from senior command—and what that says about logistics, force quality, and Moscow’s ability to sustain its offensive.

• 00:00 The reported collapse north of Lyman
• 01:45 What a salient is and why it mattered
• 03:15 Mapping Ukraine’s advance toward the Zherebets River
• 06:15 Ivanivka, Terny, and pressure on Russian positions
• 08:45 Could Ukraine establish a river bridgehead?
• 10:30 Why Lyman matters for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk
• 13:23 Russian assessments of military decline
• 16:02 Closing reflection on September 11

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes