27 May 2026
Russians are increasingly losing faith in the country’s economic recovery. In May, the difference between the shares of positive and negative responses to the question “Considering the economic conditions in the country as a whole, do you think the next 12 months will be good or bad for the country’s economy?” vanished, according to a poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation and commissioned by the Central Bank. The current assessment of the economic outlook is the lowest since October 2022, when the survey was conducted during the mobilization.
Similar assessments are available over a longer, five-year horizon. They have also worsened for the fifth month in a row and have approached the line dividing pessimism and optimism. The current assessment is the worst since March 2022, the first survey after the war began. Then, the shares of positive and negative responses last matched.
People sense a worsening economic situation, which has entered a recession. GDP in the first quarter was 0.2% lower than the previous year—the first decline in three years. Prices jumped early in the year due to the VAT increase, and assessments of the economic situation, personal financial situation, and their prospects began to rapidly deteriorate. In April, for the first time since December 2022, the question about expectations for changes in their financial situation in the coming year received more negative than positive responses (in May, assessments improved slightly).
The economy is increasingly divided between a growing military sector, linked to government contracts and import substitution, and a declining private civilian sector. In the first quarter, 19 out of 24 types of manufacturing industries were in the red, according to the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This is one of the reasons why hidden unemployment has risen to its highest level in at least a decade: amid a labor shortage, companies are trying to retain their employees in hopes of the best.
As a result, wage growth slowed, and real disposable incomes of Russians (excluding mandatory payments and adjusted for inflation), which had previously been growing rapidly, decreased for the first time in three years compared to the previous quarter, according to calculations by the government-affiliated think tank CMAKS. Adjusted for seasonality, they were 1% lower in the first quarter than in October-December 2025.
The FOM survey also found that people’s incomes have stopped growing. The median per capita disposable income this year is hovering around 27,500 rubles. All of this does not inspire optimism.
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) considers the decline in Russians’ incomes a “formal correction” and expects a resumption of growth in the second quarter. It finds no explanation for the “rapid, almost linear decline” in Russians’ assessments of their standard of living and the economic situation “against a generally favorable background,” but notes that the “unexpectedly protracted and profound” decline in assessments has itself become a factor influencing people’s behavior and the entire economy.
People have lost optimism and are increasingly worried about their financial situation, responding by saving more . Levada Center surveys, like those conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), have recorded a decline in the consumer sentiment index: in the first quarter, it approached the pessimistic zone. Weak demand is exacerbating the downturn, as CMAKS notes, household consumption is the main driver of the economy.
Mafia land must burn.
With a record numbers of companies handing out IOU’s instead of wages, I think the situation is looking great.