Nov 24, 2023
Russian military officers have offered a bleak overview of Moscow’s prospects in the ongoing war in Ukraine, bemoaning a lack of strategy from leadership.
The officers spoke with Russian media outlet RTVI after Apti Alaudinov, Russia’s special forces commander, said that Moscow would achieve “very serious results” in Ukraine by the spring of 2024. He added that there has already been a turning point in the conflict for Russia; that Ukraine is running out of resources; and that the winter weather has always been an ally for Russian troops. Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry for comment via email.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv cannot afford any stalemate in the 21-month-old war. “If we want to end the war, we must end it. End with respect so that the whole world knows that whoever came, captured, and killed, is responsible,” he told reporters last week.
Two weeks earlier, General Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, told British weekly newspaper The Economist that the war had “reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”
Military officer Roman Saponkov told the news outlet in an interview published on Thursday that he doesn’t see Moscow being able to advance past Ukrainian defenses any time soon. He also pushed back against Alaudinov’s claims that Kyiv is running out of resources.
“I don’t yet see the prerequisites for any major offensive or collapse of [Ukraine’s] front,” said Saponkov, adding that Ukraine is so far successfully repelling Russia’s offensive on the Donetsk town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.
“They are completely holding back our offensive on Avdiivka,” Saponkov said, referring to the region that has been described as the gateway to the city of Donetsk, and where clashes have been intensifying since October.
“In summer, they generally had a complete unlimited supply of shells. And now, in principle, I have not heard of any shortage on any sector of the front,” Saponkov said of Ukraine’s artillery stockpile. He added that Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks have meant that Russia is struggling to resupply its own weapons and equipment.
Russian military officer Alexey Zhivov criticized a lack of strategy from the top leadership in the war, saying commanders are not communicating basic information, such as where in Ukraine troops are expected to focus in the war in the near future.
“We have not even formulated any medium-term [war] goals,” said Zhivov. “Based on the fact that we do not understand what plans our military command has, we cannot say where we will break through in the spring.”
Zhivov added that Russia has been unable to advance in Ukraine as it did in the early stages of the war. The Russians are unlikely to do so unless there is a clear strategy communicated by the military leadership, and unless they have the manpower to carry out such offensives.
In the early days of the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to achieve his initial goal. This was to take over all of Ukraine quickly, setting up the fall of his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky’s administration, and installing a puppet administration loyal to Moscow.
Putin’s forces launched a brutal assault on the southeastern strategic port city of Mariupol. This is on the Azov Sea that forms part of a land corridor from the eastern Donbas region. The Russians seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in March 2022.
“Have you noticed that we haven’t carried out such large-scale offensive movements as in the first weeks of the [war] for a long time? When entire armies covered regions with huge pincers, bypassed cities, and so on,” Zhivov asked.
“[Back] then we worked according to a certain scenario, which was worked out by the [Russian] General Staff and approved, where, plus or minus, everyone knew their place and time, where and when to go,” the military officer added.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-military-officers-ukraine-war-prospects-1846655
“Have you noticed that we haven’t carried out such large-scale offensive movements as in the first weeks of the [war] for a long time? When entire armies covered regions with huge pincers, bypassed cities, and so on,” Zhivov asked.
“[Back] then we worked according to a certain scenario, which was worked out by the [Russian] General Staff and approved, where, plus or minus, everyone knew their place and time, where and when to go,”
Things are now completely different from the initial stages of the war. Two factors are prominent; the worsening of the roach army and the improvement of the Ukrainian one. The Ukrainians can and are learning all the time. They have successfully integrated every NATO weapons system given to them, which are mostly superior in every respect to Soviet/mafia ones.
One big factor for the continuing downfall of the mafia army is the quality of its leadership. The mafiosi potato generals are not real generals and they make too many mistakes. They bribed, bought, sucked, and fucked their way up. Most would be good enough to peel potatoes in a real army, like a bunch of Sad Sacks.
You may also add that the traitors were immensely helpful to the orcs. With traitors on the run the orcs don’t have the brains to conceive a strategy.
Luckily, the SBU is actively pursuing a seek and destroy effort against traitors.
“He added that there has already been a turning point in the conflict for Russia; that Ukraine is running out of resources; and that the winter weather has always been an ally for Russian troops.”
The winter weather works against western countries, but it’s not going to work against Ukrainians, who look better dressed and prepared for winter than the orc ragtag army. Ukraine need to keep targeting russian logistics, a cold and hungry army is not going to fight for long. We have heard countless stories of the orcs being left without food, weapons and support. All this works in Ukraine’s favour.
This was a statement from someone that enjoys painting the mafia situation in a brighter mood than it really is. The other guy is more realistic with his perspective.
According to Army.mil, depending on your exertion level, Soldiers should consume between 4,500 and 6,000 calories and 3.5 to 5 quarts of water per day. I don’t see the orcs getting anywhere near 4500-6000 calories in a week, never mind a day. As for water, I doubt any russian soldier has a regular supply delivered to the front.
I’ve already read reports that the roaches have to resort to drinking from puddles. They are also probably trying to eat stray dogs before the stray dogs eat them. No doubt, rats and mice are already on their daily menus.
“The winter weather works against western countries”
I have the same thought whenever I see something talking about winter weather helping Russian troops. That may be true for German soldiers invading Russia, but now we’re talking about Russian soldiers invading Ukraine. Ukrainians certainly know what their winters are like!
Yeah. I have lived through a few of them. -20°C is no fun at all.
That’s absolutely true, Larry. There’s nothing to worry about in this regard.