Vladimir Gorbachpolitical scientist11:01, 10.10.26

3 min.491

US President Donald Trump held a phone call with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and agreed that Russia would supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to the American and global markets in several stages: over 300,000 tons immediately, another 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons immediately thereafter (and, depending on the condition of refineries, up to 3 million more tons).

An important detail: Trump’s conversation and agreement with Putin took place before, not after, Kushnir and Vitkoff’s talks with the Ukrainian delegation and European representatives. In other words, this information was simply conveyed to us.

Now, to the point. 300,000 tons of diesel fuel is a significant amount for headlines, but a mere trifle for the global market. The size of the first shipment (which will likely also be the last, if there is one at all) is approximately 2.2 million barrels. That’s slightly more than half a day’s worth of distillate consumption in the US.

To put the numbers into perspective, the marine diesel fuel market is approximately 8 million barrels per day. So, 300,000 tons is equivalent to approximately 6-7 hours of global maritime trade, or 3-4 large LR2 product tankers.

However, estimates of the current shortage are around 1.5–2 million barrels of diesel fuel per day due to refinery outages in Russia and the Persian Gulf, as well as the Russian export ban. This means that one such shipment covers this shortage for approximately one day.

Even the most immediate delivery (300 + 500 + 1,000 thousand tons = 1.8 million tons, approximately 13 million barrels) represents only 1.5–2 days of seaborne market supply, or approximately a week of the current shortage. An additional 3 million tons, if they appear at all, would require another 2.5–3 days of trading.

Oil and diesel futures prices dropped slightly after the announcement, but this was a reaction to the signal and the US Treasury’s license for Russian diesel, not to the actual cargo at sea. For the global balance, 300,000 tons by itself changes almost nothing.

So, what was that? Trump’s concession to “friend Vladimir.”

As early as October 1, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Russia would not supply diesel fuel as long as sanctions on oil and petroleum products remained in place, and Moscow extended export restrictions until the end of October. In September, Russian seaborne diesel exports fell to a decade-low – approximately 144,000 barrels per day – due to strikes on refineries and the need to keep the fuel domestically. This means that Russia can physically release even 300,000 tons “immediately” only at the cost of a domestic shortage or the sale of existing stockpiles.

Thus, Trump will receive practically nothing, and Putin will receive a “license” to trade diesel fuel until April 7, 2027. Essentially, an indulgence for what he has been doing to Ukraine.

How will American voters react to this? Not farmers or truck drivers, but the general public? This feels like Trump shooting himself in the head, not just in the foot.

Don’t panic, it’s agony.

(C)UNIAN 2026