Dec 18, 2024

Over the past months, Russia has intensified its offensive operations across multiple fronts in Ukraine. Of these operations, a small-scale series of battles along the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast may carry very significant consequences. Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands, which are located at the river’s mouth, where it empties into the Black Sea. This operation is strategically important, since securing these islands would allow Russia to control access to the Dnipro River, a key geographic feature in Ukraine.

The Dnipro River, stretches over 2,200 kilometers from Russia’s Valdai Hills to the Black Sea, dividing Ukraine in two. Several major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, are situated along its course. The river has played a pivotal role in the conflict. As part of the initial invasion, Russian forces captured Kherson, the strategic city at the river’s mouth, in March 2022. In November 2022, Ukraine recaptured Kherson, and the retreating Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the river. Although Ukrainian forces later attempted to establish a bridgehead, they suffered heavy losses and ultimately abandoned the effort. Currently, in the Kherson Oblast, Russia controls the river’s east bank, while Ukraine holds the west.

The Russian 61^st Marine Brigade has been launching amphibious operations to seize the Kozatskyi and Kruhlyk islands. Gaining control of these islands would enable Russia to position artillery to control access to the river. The artillery could also provide support for bridging operations, allowing Russian forces to cross the river and attempt to retake Kherson. However, the islands lie within Ukraine’s artillery range, and the 126th Territorial Defense Brigade are countering the Russian assaults. Neither side has yet to fully secure these islands.

The availability of equipment has been the decisive factor in many engagements during the Russia-Ukraine War and will likely be a crucial factor in this operation as well. In particular, both sides need small boats to assault and claim the islands. Russian forces have amassed a fleet of 300 boats, primarily rigid-hull inflatable boats (RHIBs), to ferry troops to the islands to launch rapid assaults. These boats allow for quick movement in shallow waters and are difficult to detect, particularly at night. The Russian boats have mounted weapon systems, including machine guns and grenade launchers, transforming these vessels into agile combat platforms.

Meanwhile, Ukraine, has its own set of boats, which have been augmented through foreign aid packages. Last month, Australia announced that they are donating 14 RHIBS to Ukraine. Earlier this year, the Netherlands has provided 14 RHIBs, eight militarized river patrol boats, and CB90 assault craft. Meanwhile, aid packages from the United States have included over 100 coastal and riverine patrol boats. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and Denmark have also provided watercraft that can be used to support this operation. Many of these boats are equipped with modern weapon systems similar to the Russians.

Further, both sides are augmenting their troops with their standard suite of advanced technologies — drones and electronic warfare systems. Drones are used for reconnaissance, targeting, and precision strikes against the opposing forces as they attempt to assault and claim the islands. Similarly, both sides are using electronic warfare systems to jam each other’s communications effectively isolating the assaulting units. Electronic warfare systems are also frequently used to counter adversarial drones. The Russian military pioneered both of these fields. However, Ukraine’s ability to leverage their industrial base gives them the current edge in these domains.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been developing a fleet of Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) to complement systems provided through foreign aid packages. Most notably, they have developed the SeaBaby and Magura 5 USVs, which are equipped with a variety of weapon systems. Initially used for kamikaze-style missions, credited with destroying several Russian vessels, these drones now carry their own weapons and can engage both watercraft and aircraft. While primarily suited for open water, they also have the potential to be deployed in these operations, patrolling waterways and disrupting Russian assault elements.

Ukraine’s future will be profoundly shaped by who has control over the Dnipro River. If Russia secures the islands at the mouth river and maintains dominance over the river’s east bank, it would control access to the waterway and gain a critical staging point for future assaults on the west shore. Russia’s efforts to capture these islands are being met with a determined Ukrainian defense, bolstered by technologies that could prove decisive in this conflict.

Follow me on LinkedIn. 

Vikram Mittal

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2024/12/18/russian-and-ukrainian-forces-battle-over-islands-in-the-dnipro-river