Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the aggressor nation of the russian federation’s military will not be able to occupy the entire Donetsk Region by 2032. This is stated in a report published on the ISW website.
According to the analysts, in August, the rate of russian troop advancement across the entire front line averaged 2.91 square kilometers per day. This is slightly higher than the figures for previous months.
In the Donetsk Region, the average rate of the occupiers’ advance in August was lower, at 2.36 square kilometers per day.
“Russian forces would take until October 2, 2032, to seize the remaining 19 percent of Donetsk Oblast at this rate — over a year after the next State Duma elections, which will likely be held in September 2031,” the report states.
However, ISW analysts are not ready to conclude that the russian army will be able to capture the rest of the Donetsk Region within any specific timeframe. The russians face grueling battles in the so-called “Fortress Belt”—the largest cities in the north of the region. Only then will they be able to advance into open terrain, where russian forces have historically always found it difficult to move forward.
Also, in 2026, Ukraine was able to demonstrate that it is capable of seizing the tactical initiative in several sectors of the front line and disrupting the occupiers’ logistics. The enemy is barely managing to counter these efforts by the Ukrainian army.
“Neither the trajectory nor any likely dynamics of the current conflict suggest that Russian forces will be able soon to accelerate their rate of advance dramatically as long as Western support for Ukraine continues at roughly current levels,” the ISW concluded.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, back in early 2026, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) stated that the russian army’s rate of advance in some sectors of the front ranged from 15 to 70 meters per day.
As a reminder, on August 12, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainian military had liberated 745 square kilometers of territory in the Oleksandrivka sector during an operation that began in January of this year.
© 2026 Ukrainian News Agency
Putler knows he has no chance of capturing Donbas, that’s why his real estate stooges are desperate for Ukraine to capitulate. putler’s only answer is to target civilians.
How do you stop, kill and push back a horde of genocidal vermin that is still moving in a westerly direction?
The CIC of the ZSU will know the answer, which will be a mix of old and new :
Close Air Support (CAS): Employs ground-attack aircraft to strike moving columns and disrupt enemy logistics behind the front line.
Artillery and Rockets (Indirect Fire)
* Howitzer Artillery: Fires high-explosive shells from miles away to break up troop concentrations before they reach the defensive line.
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* Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS): Delivers massive, concentrated firepower over a large area within seconds to devastate advancing armored columns.
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FPV and Loitering Drones: Provides cheap, precise, and continuous strikes on advancing vehicles and infantry from above.
The defenders do not have enough of the above. Allies must stop fartarsing around and ensure that they do.
It may be possible to take back land and minimise human losses by deploying humongous hordes of killer drones.
Once land has been retaken, the numbers come back into contention.
Ukraine simply must double its ground forces in order to retoke and hold land.