03/10/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
Russia has removed between 25 and 40 percent of its strategic tank reserves from open storage, depending on the model. If its equipment losses in the war against Ukraine remain the same or increase, the country will face equipment shortages.
This situation may continue for the next few years, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts refer to reports from researchers who analyzed satellite images from open sources.
Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimates that Moscow has likely withdrawn its best equipment from its strategic reserve. At the same time, the Russians still have “worst” or “irreparable” equipment in storage.
Massicot also estimated that Russia’s “remaining weapons stockpile will decline in the next couple of years” if its army maintains its current pace of operations on the Ukrainian front.
According to ISW, reports of tank “production” figures in Russia in recent years mainly reflect refurbished and modernized vehicles taken from warehouses, rather than new production.
“These estimates suggest that the Russian military is primarily using depot vehicles to support its war effort rather than new production to compensate for battlefield losses,” the analysts noted.
They believe that Russia could face equipment shortages in the next few years if its current level of losses in Ukraine remains the same or accelerates, and the current level of production of new equipment in the Russian Federation remains the same.
As OBOZ.UA reported, ISW previously estimated that Russia lost more than 3,000 tanks in the war against Ukraine (6.7 thousand according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) – this number corresponds to its entire pre-war active arsenal. However, the Russian Federation has enough tanks in storage that will last for another three years of hostilities.
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“At the same time, the Russians still have “worst” or “irreparable” equipment in storage.”
I mentioned this once before. The roaches have and are removing the equipment from storage first and foremost that have the best chances of being repaired. I have experience in restoring old vehicles and I know what time can do to them. Everything is vulnerable to deterioration. Metal will rust, electrical connections will corrode, plastic insulation will dry and crack, ditto for rubber hoses, fuel residue will turn to gum, condensation in the engines and fuel tanks will do its share of damage, optics will go blind, and many other things gets its share of damage or destruction. Then there are mice and rats. They can be very destructive. Even their urine can accelerate corrosion in a huge way. And they get into everything, even up exhaust pipes and so into the engine itself. They chew on things you can’t imagine. Insects will build nests in various openings. I’ve even seen cobwebs in cylinders which still had the cylinder head mounted on the engine block.
So, the more the roaches have to take out the older vehicles, the more work they have to get them operating again. And, many will simply be basket cases.
Good points, your hands-on experience is very helpful, Scradge. So, we can do a guesstimate: If 80% of the stored tanks are repairable, Russia can go on another two years, at current pace of artrition. If it’s only 60%, just one more year. And that already includes increased manhours invested into the restorations, which may not be possible under the shortage of qualified workers. Accordingly, I think we can confidently say that the medium term outlook for Ukraine is positive. 2025 can become the decisive year when the RuSSian army breaks down. This depends on Nato supplying a steady flow of arms and ammunition, though. Judging from the recent strengthening of support for Ukraine among European governments, I’m optimistic that this is possible. So, no defeatism now, please, victory is possible! ✌🙂🇺🇦
Oops, sorry, Mr. Ofp, that was your comment, of course. And let me add, cool hobby! Friends of mine own some oldtimers and youngtimers, too. Not as serious cases as you bring back to life, though! 🙂👍
Indeed, Mr. Gray, the recent developments, in particular talk about NATO troops in Ukraine, can generally be viewed as positive, although much is still to be accomplished. The West should not be so lethargic in both aiding Ukraine and fully restarting its defense industries. It cannot afford not too, despite the costs.