Ekaterina Girnyk07:40, 24.02.25

The Kremlin sees an advantage in protracted negotiations on Ukraine and using the battlefield to shape its terms.

Russia does not want a quick ceasefire and plans to drag out peace talks indefinitely in order to use the situation on the battlefield to shape its conditions for ending the war.

As The Wall Street Journal writes , Moscow already has extensive experience using military offensives to improve its negotiating position, a strategy Moscow has used from Syria to the Yalta talks during World War II.

In recent days, it has seemed as if U.S. policy is shifting decisively in Russia’s favor. But translating that shift into agreements at the negotiating table will not be easy. Putin has goals that go far beyond the territorial gains his forces have made in Ukraine.

“There is considerable doubt inside the Kremlin that Trump and his people understand the difficulty or complexity of the issues that need to be addressed,” said former White House Russia adviser Thomas Graham.

Success on the battlefield spurs Putin

“As Russia’s position on the battlefield improves, the Russians are only increasing their pressure,” says Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand think tank. “I can only imagine that the general staff officers are trying to convince Putin that now is the time to step on the gas and make maximum territorial gains.”

Russia, however, will likely insist on terms similar to those they discussed in Istanbul at the start of the war. At those talks, Russia demanded that foreign weapons be kept out of Ukrainian territory and that Ukraine’s armed forces be reduced to a certain size.

Russia also wants to end intelligence sharing between Washington and Kyiv, which remains unrecognized by either side and helps Ukraine strike some of Russia’s most sensitive targets, a person familiar with Russia’s thinking said.

Trump changed strategy

While the talks are ongoing, the U.S. has tools to pressure Moscow, such as tightening restrictions on Russian oil exports or sending Kyiv more military aid. But Trump has signaled lately that he prefers polite conversation, and aides have been cutting back on mentions of sanctions.

While Trump is trying to make a quick deal with the Kremlin, Graham said he will have two options to advance the talks – press Moscow or press Kyiv. Trump’s recent harsh criticism of Zelensky suggests he has decided to press Kyiv, the easier target of the two, Graham said.

Moreover, Putin does not want the Trump administration to think that it can quickly dismiss Russia as a problem, move on and ignore relations with Moscow. 

“They want to engage with the United States for some time,” Graham said. “They don’t want the United States or Trump to think it’s a matter of two or three months to get this done, and now I’ll just focus on China and forget about the Russians.”

Ceasefire negotiations

Earlier, White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt said that US President Donald Trump is confident in his ability to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, suggesting that the war could end as early as next week .

However, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that this cannot be done without guarantees for Ukraine.

(C)UNIAN 2025