05/3/2025

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported that the Russian Federation is on the verge of a serious economic crisis. The reason for this was a critical imbalance between state budget revenues and expenditures.

This is stated in the analysis of the SZRU. Next week, the Russian State Duma will consider a government bill on revising the federal budget indicators for 2025. According to the government’s plan, the deficit will increase almost threefold – from $12 to $42 billion.

“The main reason for urgent action is the huge imbalance between the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget,” the intelligence service emphasized.

The main factor behind the negative trends in the Russian economy and the gap in finances is excessive spending, primarily due to the need to fuel the bloody war machine against Ukraine, which significantly exceeds the budget’s capabilities. To compensate for the lack of funds, the Russian government is planning an unprecedented increase in the tax burden on the population and business.

Due to a severe budget imbalance, the Russian government has decided to revise its fiscal plan for 2025 and increase its deficit by 2.5 times, from $12 billion to $42 billion. Despite this, the Russian Ministry of Finance says that the economic growth forecast will remain unchanged at 2.5%, and attributes this to the expected increase in non-oil and gas revenues.

In fact, this means a record increase in the tax burden on business in modern Russian history. To stabilize the economy, the Russian government plans to sharply increase tax revenues:

• personal income tax – 180%,
• corporate income tax – 110%, 
• VAT – 17%.

At the same time, about 30% of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia are already on the verge of bankruptcy, and by the end of the year this share could increase to 50%.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said that the country’s budget will supposedly remain stable and all development plans will be implemented, regardless of external circumstances. However, he fails to mention that more than 30% of budget revenues depend on the sale of oil, the price of which fell noticeably in early 2025.

Currently, Russian oil is being purchased at the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk for $47-49 per barrel, although the budget price was set at $69.7 per barrel. This could reduce Russia’s oil and gas revenues by a third to $30-40 billion, which is in line with the projected budget deficit for this year.

The situation is similar with the inflation rate: the government claims 7.6%, while in reality, according to independent estimates, it already exceeds 20%.

“In the context of manipulating official statistics, the situation is similar with the inflation rate. The Russian government sets the indicator at 7.6%, while according to our estimates, real inflation in Russia already exceeds 20% today,” the report says.

As OBOZ.UA reported, US officials have reportedly finalized new economic sanctions against Russia , including banking and energy measures, to increase pressure on Moscow. The restrictions are intended to pressure Russia to support US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-rossii/rosiya-na-porozi-potuzhnoi-krizi-cherez-neobhidnist-zhiviti-mashinu-vijni-u-rozvidtsi-rozkrili-detali.htm