07/03/2026
It’s now becoming increasingly clear that Russia may lose this war. They aren’t making progress on the front, and Ukraine is increasingly having success with strategic strikes, especially against Crimea and Moscow. This is leading a lot of people to ask the same question – if Putin feels backed into a corner, will he use his nuclear weapons? In this video, I look into this question deeply, analyzing the psychology of Vladimir Putin (and dictators in general) as well as the relevant lessons we can learn from history.
https://www.youtube.com/@PaulJWarburg
I agree that putler won’t use strategic nukes.
But tactical nukes?
Paul repeated the warning that putler was given :
“If you use tactical nukes we will respond conventionally and destroy your occupier forces in Ukraine.”
I was doubtful whether that warning was actually given, but let’s say it was :
Krasnov certainly would not honour it even conventionally.
I also think that the European nuclear powers will do probably nothing even conventionally.
The only thing that would deter putler from launching would be the certainty that he’d get one lobbed back at him from Ukraine.
It would therefore make the world much safer if Ukraine was armed with its own independent nuclear deterrent.
Not sometime in the future, but now.