Olga Koval23:09, 15.06.26

Fuel shortages could become one of the main factors accelerating inflation in the second half of the year and create problems for the entire Russian economy.

A series of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries has dealt a major blow to the Russian fuel industry. According to analysts at Energy Intelligence , the country could face the most severe fuel crisis in its history.

According to researchers, drones successfully struck Russian refineries 16 times in May alone, with eight of the country’s ten largest refineries hit. In early June, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 4 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2005.

Analysts estimate that 2.14 million barrels per day of capacity, or nearly a third of all Russian oil refining capacity, is currently idle due to damage.

“Ukraine’s campaign against the Russian energy sector, particularly oil refineries, has caused widespread damage. This summer, Russia appears to be heading toward what could be the worst fuel crisis in its history,” Energy Intelligence notes.

The shortage has already affected dozens of regions.

Fuel shortages are no longer isolated. According to the publication, gasoline sales restrictions have already been recorded in more than 25 regions of Russia, including major cities. Outages are also observed in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, Kuzbass, Nizhny Novgorod, and Ulyanovsk regions.

The Tatneft gas station chain has introduced a limit of no more than 20 liters of gasoline per customer in at least six regions.

Problems affected farmers and aviation

The shortage has also spread to other sectors of the economy. Russian farmers are reporting disruptions in diesel fuel supplies in the south of the country, the Central Black Earth Region, and the Volga region. At the end of May, airports in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Ufa began to experience jet fuel shortages.

In mid-June, restrictions on refueling passenger aircraft were introduced in six more cities, including Nizhny Novgorod and Krasnodar.

Prices are rising rapidly

The reduced supply has already impacted fuel prices. Since the beginning of the year, prices on the exchange have increased:

• gasoline AI-92 – by 28%;
• gasoline AI-95 – by 34%;
• diesel fuel – by 43%;
• aviation fuel – by 40%.

According to CMAKS estimates, in the four weeks leading up to June 10 alone, retail gasoline prices jumped by almost 4%, the highest growth rate since 2018.

Authorities are trying to contain the crisis

The Russian government has already taken a number of emergency measures. In April and May, oil companies received approximately 700 billion rubles in budget subsidies. Furthermore, the authorities have temporarily authorized the sale of gasoline with a lower emission standard—Euro-3—instead of Euro-5. However, experts doubt this will quickly stabilize the situation.

“The most alarming thing is that the crisis is just beginning. Seasonal demand peaks in August and September, while signs of shortages and accelerating price growth appeared as early as June,” noted Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov.

According to him, if the refinery’s operations cannot be quickly resumed, the fuel shortage could become one of the main factors accelerating inflation in the second half of the year and create problems for the entire Russian economy.

(C)UNIAN 2026