Vitaly Sayenko11:54, 26.03.25

Russia is bluffing, even though it understands that continuing the war would be a disaster for it.

The Russian Federation is seriously suffering economically, which is why it is demanding  the lifting of sanctions on the supply of agricultural products through the Black Sea . Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ogryzko said this on Radio NV .

“The Russian economy is really flying into the abyss. And in a few more months, if the situation remains as it is today, the Russian economy will actually turn into nothing,” Ogryzko emphasized.

In his opinion, the Russians, by demanding the lifting of sanctions, themselves confirm that the sanctions are in effect and that this is bad for the Russian economy.

“And in order for the Russian economy to survive at least a little, they are asking or demanding that these sanctions be lifted. But let’s look at this logic from the other side. If these sanctions continue, if everything that exists today, even in such a half-baked sanction version, takes place, then this means that very soon the horns and hooves will be left from the Russian economy. Actually, that’s what we need,” Ogryzko emphasized.

However, in his opinion, this is where the paradox lies.

“Russia understands that continuing the war is a catastrophe for it, and at the same time, it continues to bring this catastrophe closer, bluffing and playing on the fact that now we will continue (to strike) until you lift the sanctions, understanding that if the sanctions are extended, then a catastrophe will be inevitable. This is the typical logic of Moscow negotiators,” Ogryzko emphasized.

The expert assessed the prospects of the negotiations

At the same time, the expert believes that there is no solution to the negotiations in Saudi Arabia, because everyone interprets it the way they want. Russia actually takes the position that it will continue to wage war and puts forward additional demands.

“From this, we can draw a simple conclusion that Russia does not want to end the war as of now, and thus will demand certain concessions in order to end it. Concessions will start with these agricultural and transport aspects, and then move to a higher level. This is a traditional Russian tactic,” Ogryzko emphasized.

The former minister also suggested what Russian dictator Vladimir Putin would do if sanctions were not lifted and oil prices fell.

“The Russians are playing on blackmail, on the desire to scare us that we continue to be strong only in order to hit the jackpot… This is Russian roulette – either you’re a master or you’re lost. That is, there may be a bullet in the forehead – so it will be so. Or maybe we’ll play. This is what is called Russian diplomacy in action,” Ogryzko noted.

In his opinion, the process of establishing a ceasefire will be delayed due to the position of the Russian Federation, which will bluff until the last moment.

“Now I only expect that Trump will finally realize, despite all the difficulties of this process, that Russia is raising him like a boy, and that this may, ultimately, drive him crazy in the literal sense of the word, and then, probably, some steps will be taken on his part. If this does not happen, this will be another confirmation that Trump is dependent on Russia,” Ogryzko believes.

Agreement with Russia on the Black Sea

As UNIAN reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that during the talks in Saudi Arabia, an agreement was reached on a ceasefire in the Black Sea and free navigation. At the same time, after the talks, Russia stated that before establishing silence in the Black Sea, its requirements must be met. In particular, the Russians are demanding that sanctions against Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade be eased, including their return to the global payment system Swift.

According to military observer Denis Popovych, after meetings in Saudi Arabia, the Russians are seeking to legalize the looting of Ukrainian food . 

(C)UNIAN 2025