Marta Gichko09:50, 26.03.25
Putin has no strong incentive to stop the invasion, and the dictator shows no desire to make peace.
The first ceasefire agreement, brokered by the US during talks in Saudi Arabia , benefits Moscow more without requiring significant concessions from Kyiv, The Times writes.
No concessions from Russia
It is clear that Russia benefits more than Ukraine from the agreement to cease hostilities in the Black Sea and the possible ban on attacks on energy facilities.
The White House said the agreement would “eliminate the use of force” in the Black Sea and ensure the safety of shipping. However, in reality, active hostilities in the region ceased in 2023, when the Russian fleet suffered significant losses and was forced to retreat from Crimea after a series of successful Ukrainian attacks, including the sinking of the flagship Moskva.
After the retreat of the Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine was able to establish grain exports, so the announced truce will likely benefit Russian ships more.
“Ukraine is quite successful in ensuring the security of its grain corridor. At the same time, Russia is constantly attacking the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv, and there is nothing about this in the agreement. No restrictions (on strikes – UNIAN) have been imposed on Russia,” wrote Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to the President of Ukraine, on Telegram.
He also accused the White House of failing to obtain “any concessions” from Russia in exchange for its ability to resume exports of agricultural products and fertilizers.
As for a potential ban on attacks on energy infrastructure, it could help Ukrainians avoid the blackouts that Russia has tried to cause throughout the war. At the same time, Ukraine has also been carrying out strikes on Russian oil facilities, damaging the Kremlin’s economic ability to wage war. If such attacks stop, it would be an advantage for Moscow.
Victory for Putin
Russia has demanded the easing of sanctions against Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in agricultural trade, in particular their return to the global payment system Swift.
Rosselkhozbank was disconnected from Swift in 2022 by the EU. The European Union later offered a compromise: to allow the bank to create a subsidiary to process payments related to grain exports. Although this proposal was presented to Russia in 2023 under the auspices of the UN, the Kremlin was skeptical at the time and did not implement it.
If Moscow were to make such concessions now, it would be seen as a major victory for Putin and set a precedent for further easing of sanctions. The White House said the deal would “expand” Russia’s access to international financial systems, but did not specify whether it was specifically about Swift.
Ukraine is concerned that the West may weaken its position towards Russia.
“Even today, on the very day of the negotiations, we see how the Russians have already begun to manipulate,” President Zelenskyy said. “They are already trying to distort the agreements and, in fact, deceive both our mediators and the entire world.”
Does Putin want peace?
There is no sign that the Kremlin is really preparing for peace. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that a “breakthrough” should not be expected, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the assumption that hostilities in Ukraine will cease in the near future a “delusion.” A date for a new round of talks between the United States and Russia has also not been set.
As Russian forces continue their slow advance in eastern Ukraine and the Trump administration increasingly echoes the Kremlin’s war rhetoric, Putin has little incentive to stop the invasion.
Despite significant losses among the Russian military, the Kremlin’s rhetoric has barely changed since the start of the full-scale aggression in 2022. This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Moscow seeks to “denazify” Ukraine, citing Putin’s propaganda claims about the “neo-Nazi” nature of the Ukrainian state. He also accused the West of trying to “contain” Russia, comparing the situation to the actions of “Napoleon and Hitler.”
On the day the talks began in Saudi Arabia, a Russian missile strike on Sumy injured 88 people, including 17 children.
Regarding the issue of abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners, the White House only noted that it would remain “committed” to efforts to return them.
“For the exchange of prisoners and the return of children, desire is not enough,” Leshchenko noted. “It is unclear how the United States will provide this assistance.”
Black Sea Agreements
On March 25, the Russian side stated that the US had agreed to lift some sanctions in exchange for supporting the Black Sea agreement.
Trump himself has said his administration is considering Russia’s demands. “There are five or six conditions and we’re considering all of them,” he said.
(C)UNIAN 2025