Dec 10, 2023

Any general with a comprehensive understanding of strategy will already understand that it is impossible for Russia to obtain a decisive military victory over Ukraine. The best they can hope for is a settlement that provides enough territorial gain to save face and claim their mission was achieved.

Russia does not have the economic, industrial or military might to win. Their economy is shrinking with the loss of oil and gas revenue, they cannot obtain new investment for restructuring their manufacturing base, they have lost their brightest minds who fled at the start of the first ‘mobilisation’ and they are losing men and machines at an unsustainable rate – but in spite of all that Putin could still pull victory from the jaws of defeat.

Putin’s master stroke has been to initiate by fair means or foul the cooperation of Iran. The timely attack by Hamas on Israel was not simply convenient it was contrived. By persuading Iran to direct Hamas to attack in such a devastating manner, Putin redirected American government attention away from the war he was desperately losing. Many US representatives who rely on funding from pro Israel sources, were obliged to instantly redirect resources to Israel. The media bored with the daily grind of the Ukraine conflict had a new disaster to transmit into our homes. People who had been obviously disinterested in Russian aggression in Ukraine were now marching in the streets of the USA and Europe demanding action against both sides. Ukraine became invisible.

In Congress isolationists many of whom could not point to Gaza on a map saw an opportunity to defeat a new military funding bill for Ukraine. All this was courtesy of President Putin’s ability to manipulate geopolitics. In doing so he has undermined Ukrainian confidence in the west, undermined the will of the USA to support democracy and given himself breathing space to extend his war as far as the next US Presidential election.

There is hope; British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has been lobbying in the USA and Europe to provide frozen Russian assets to Ukraine as ‘reparations’. The Russian have not hesitated to steal foreign investments in Russia so there is little legal or moral high ground to prevent such actions. Europeans must nullify the veto of Hungary’s Victor Orban and get tougher with those who support Putin.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin understand the situation extremely well and know that while the money has to flow to fight, they must also win the political war at home. The US House of Representatives which approves government spending, has a slim Republican majority controlled by a small group of extremists who would happily sacrifice democracy, freedom and the rule of law to defeat Joe Biden’s Democrats in 2024.
Ukraine must not be ignored!

Slava Ukraini!