17 June 2026
The strikes on oil refineries, which reduced oil refining in Russia to a two-decade low, triggered a multi-year surge in fuel inflation.
In the week from June 9 to 15, gasoline prices at Russian gas stations increased by an average of 0.95%, Rosstat reported on Wednesday. Over the first two weeks of the month, prices at gas stations increased by 1.93%—twice as much as in all of May (0.85%). Gasoline inflation has accelerated for the fifth week in a row, according to statistics: from June 2 to 8, it was 0.92%, from May 26 to June 1, it was 0.45%, and two weeks earlier, it was 0.34% and 0.11%, respectively.
Not in any year since the beginning of the war has gasoline prices risen so rapidly, notes Janis Kluge, a research fellow at the German Institute for International Security Studies. From the beginning of the year through June 15, fuel prices rose 6.61%—twice as much as they would have on the same dates in 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022. CMAKS analysts estimate
the monthly growth rate for gasoline prices at 3.93%. According to Rosstat , this is a record high since May 2018, when gasoline prices increased by more than 5%.
“The June price spike was triggered by unscheduled maintenance at refineries, which left a number of regions dependent on imported fuel from regions with stable gasoline and diesel production,” notes economist Kirill Rodionov. Since the beginning of the month, drone strikes have halted production at Gazprom Neft’s Moscow Refinery, Tatneft’s largest refinery, Taneco, in Nizhnekamsk, Rosneft’s Kuibyshev Refinery, and Lukoil’s Volgograd Refinery.
In May, at least six refineries halted production, and at least 16 were hit by drone strikes—a record number since the beginning of the war. As a result, by early June, refinery utilization in Russia had fallen by a third, and oil refining volumes had fallen below 4 million barrels per day for the first time since the mid-2000s, according to Energy Intelligence.
According to Rosstat, gasoline prices are rising across the board: price increases have been recorded in 78 regions of the Russian Federation. The highest increases were in the Republic of Tyva (+9.4%) and Chechnya. Diesel fuel prices have risen equally sharply—by 5.7% since the beginning of the year—with farmers in southern and central Russia complaining of shortages . “There’s a clear supply problem,” Kluge notes. If the situation isn’t addressed, the government may ban diesel exports, as it has already done with gasoline and jet fuel, the expert believes.
Fuel inflation could become a problem for the entire economy, warns Finam strategist Yaroslav Kabakov: rising gasoline prices will drag down overall inflation in the country, which could seriously limit the Central Bank’s ability to lower the key rate. “The most alarming aspect is that the crisis is just beginning,” Kabakov reasons. “Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August and September, and signs of shortages and price increases appeared as early as June.”
To quell the fire in the fuel market, the government lowered gasoline quality requirements, began purchasing gasoline from Asia, and allowed oil companies to sell less fuel on the exchange to supply farmers and “socially significant” consumers—government agencies, military units, hospitals, etc. “However, in the long run, only safety guarantees for refineries and the lifting of sanctions on imports of equipment for Russian oil refining will help,” Rodionov believes.
The bad news is that gas has risen in price. The good news is you won’t need to pay the increase because there is no gas.
Laughing my gas off! 🤣