09/11/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
The situation in eastern Ukraine, in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, remains tense. The Russian occupying army is suffering colossal losses in manpower and equipment on this part of the front, but the Russian generals do not pay attention to this and are ready to continue at any cost. However, in the future, the enemy will not be able to act as actively as it is doing now for objective reasons. Its resource is quickly depleted.
Today, it cannot be said that the Defense Forces were able to completely stabilize the situation in the Pokrovsky direction, since the enemy still has an advantage in manpower, artillery and aviation. September 20 can be a kind of moment of truth. If the occupiers fail to show significant progress by this day, it will be a sign that their forces and resources are truly exhausted.
This forecast was voiced by military expert Vladyslav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– At the last meeting of the Stavka, President Zelenskyi said that it is important to destroy as many of the forces of the occupier in the east of our country as possible. The enemy’s army must be incapacitated. In your estimation, what are the real capabilities of the Defense Force to exhaust the enemy, to destroy his manpower and equipment, and finally to stop his advance? Can we say that these opportunities have increased today?
– It is necessary to make several very important remarks. In no case should we be fascinated by what we hear, the information that the situation in the Pokrovsky direction is supposedly stabilized. The enemy continues to transfer additional forces and means in order to break our defenses in this direction. And although the morning summary of the General Staff for September 10 states that the number of clashes in the Kurakhiv direction is slightly higher than in the Pokrovsky direction, the intensity of hostilities in the Pokrovsky direction remains very high.
The Russian generals absolutely do not pay attention to the huge losses, primarily in manpower, because recently the enemy uses armored vehicles less and less. These are infantry or “meat” assaults with artillery and air support. A huge number of KABs, more than a hundred per day, is really a lot.
Accordingly, under such conditions, it is not necessary to say that the situation has been completely stabilized by the Ukrainian army. Although the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is making every effort to direct additional forces and means to maintain our positions in the Pokrovsky direction. We are currently observing one of the elements of strategic defense. The casualty rate of the attacking party is 3, 5, or even 7 times greater than the casualty rate of the defending party.
Undoubtedly, the factor of artillery and aviation plays a role on the side of the Russians, it is difficult for us to fight this component of the enemy. But we are fighting defensive battles, in particular under the cover of industrial buildings. Although the enemy sometimes reports on the capture of some industrial facilities, I can imagine what price they pay for this opportunity.
We recall once again the statements of the head of military intelligence, General Budanov, that by the beginning of October, the enemy’s reserves should be depleted. It can already be stated that the strategic reserves of the Russian army have been exhausted, the operational ones are also coming to an end, and the level of the Russian army’s ability to strengthen certain directions is calculated by individual battalions, and in the best case, by regiments.
Therefore, it is not worth saying that the enemy has enough resources to conduct active offensive actions in the next few months. And this means that Budanov’s predictions will be implemented and become reality in the near future.
Therefore, in the current conditions, on the one hand, we must be very careful in assessing the possibilities of the Ukrainian army holding certain lines and positions in the Pokrovsky direction, and on the other hand, the enemy should not indulge in illusions. If he was unable to realize his territorial claims in more comfortable conditions earlier, now, after the appropriate set of forces and means was directed by the Ukrainian General Staff to the Pokrovsky direction, he has very bleak prospects.
I think the next ten days will be decisive. If by September 20 the Russians do not have any significant advances deep into our battle formations in the Pokrovsky direction, then, I think, their forces, means and capabilities will be exhausted. What we see every day in the building of our General Staff is a huge level of Russian losses. He is simply amazing. A lot of destroyed manpower, armored vehicles, weapons, special equipment. These figures reflect not only the intensity of the fighting, but also the fact that the enemy is ready to suffer losses of any level in order to achieve results.
Actually, this fits into the logic of those attitudes that Putin defined for his army. He dreamed of creating a so-called sanitary zone to protect his border from attacks by Ukrainian drones, as well as MLRS. But the Ukrainian General Staff worked for prevention, and within the limits of preventive activities we were able to create a bridgehead on the territory of the Kursk region.
On the one hand, I see the statements of our General Staff, saying that our border area of Sumy and Chernihiv regions is still under the influence of Russian mortars and artillery systems, but the number of shellings has decreased by orders of magnitude.
As for the actions of the Russian army, in this situation they are forced to reflect. A certain amount of forces and means, which the Russian General Staff initially planned to use in other directions, is now forced to transfer to the territory of the Kursk region in order to prevent the expansion of the bridgehead by the Ukrainian army.
Certainly, I do not entertain myself with illusions. The amount of forces and means that the Ukrainian army has concentrated in the Kursk region is clearly insufficient not only for the march on Moscow. This is not enough to advance towards Kursk or Kurchatov. And this is not the main goal. The key mission is to create a buffer zone to secure our border, at least in the Sumy region. The second mission is an attempt to detach some of the Russian resources from other areas of the front.
Movement of forces and resources is always a loss. Loss of time, material and technical losses. Some enemy columns are reduced to ashes during the advance stage.
And here we again return to the case of why our Western partners are in no hurry to give us permission to use forces and means at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. So we would have the opportunity not only to control and destroy enemy forces at such a depth. This could radically change the balance of forces involved by the occupiers in attempts to block our bridgehead in Kurshchyna.
– You say that the forces and means of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region are not enough for the march to Moscow – such a goal is not set. You also talked about the fact that the West is in no hurry to give Ukraine long-range weapons for 300 kilometers and, even more so, to allow them to be used in the Russian Federation. But we see that the attacks of Ukrainian drones on objects in the Russian Federation are quite successful. So, drones flew into the suburbs of Moscow, Zhukovsky airport was attacked . Are you suggesting that the Kursk operation has reduced the delivery arm and now the Defense Forces are able to reach targets they could not reach before?
– This night (September 10. – Ed.) 144 units of Ukrainian drones “Lyut” were used. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that such a number was destroyed. How many were destroyed is not specified. I think it’s important to emphasize the details here.
First of all – a huge number of arrivals. These are not only flights around the Moscow region. An important fire at the Zhukovsky airstrip, explosions in Kolomna, in Kashira, arrivals at the Shaykovka airfield in the Kaluga region – it is from there that Tu-22M3 planes, X-22 and X-32 carriers take off. From the airfield “Khalino” in Kurshchyna, the Russians launch “Shakhedi”. In the territory of the Tula region, UAVs flew to the facility of the fuel and energy company. Russians suffer losses.
So far, it is difficult to verify the results of this drone attack, but the Russians are forced to reflect. And this is our practice of a thousand cuts. We are gradually bleeding the Russian army.
The Ukrainian army has the technical ability to carry out massive drone attacks, and 144 drones at one time is much more than the Russians can afford within the limits of one-time use. If we could add to this the missile weapons that we receive from our Western partners, then it is obvious that the Russian air defense system would not be able to cope with such an influx of forces and means of the Ukrainian army, and therefore the results would be much greater.
But for now we have what we have. I rejoice in the hope that during the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, Volodymyr Zelenskyi will find common ground and compromises with Joe Biden. In my opinion, the Americans have no strong and clear arguments left, why they should not allow us to use their missile weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation for 300 kilometers.
Their denials that, as they say, the Russians have withdrawn all their aircraft to a distance of more than 300 kilometers from the state border line, and therefore the American ATACMS will not be effective, are false. If only because the lion’s share of aviation, which is used to carry out strikes with the help of guided aerial bombs, is located at airfields located at a distance of less than 300 kilometers from the state border line. Therefore, ATACMS will be effective.
Ukraine is doing a swell job to erode the mafia army, but with a bit more courage from the free world, the slaughter of roaches could be increased a lot more.