Yuriy Kobzar17:22, 23.12.23

Putin will be satisfied with the current situation, when Russia controls the ruins of Donbas and the completely mined steppes of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast.

In public, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin pretends that he is ready to continue the war indefinitely. But through the channels of “backroom diplomacy” he is signaling to the West that he would like to conclude a peace agreement as soon as possible. The New York Times writes about this based on the results of conversations with dozens of Russians and representatives of other countries who are familiar with the situation.

According to knowledgeable sources, Putin has been sending signals about his readiness to reach an agreement even after Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in September 2022. A new wave of these signals began already in September of this year. The Kremlin is ready to agree to a cease-fire and freezing of the conflict on the current contact line.

The signals come through multiple channels, including through foreign governments with ties to both the United States and Russia. Unofficial Russian emissaries spoke with interlocutors about the contours of a potential agreement that Putin would accept.

“Putin and the Russian military, they don’t want to build up their capability any further,” said an international official who met with senior Russian officials this fall.

Some analysts say Putin benefits from a protracted war and wants to delay any talks until former US President Donald Trump’s possible return to office in 2024. But a former Russian official says that Putin would actually prefer a deal sooner, given the uncertainty inherent in war.

Sources say that Russian propaganda will easily explain to Russians why such a “draw” is actually a “victory”, emphasizing in particular the conquest of the land corridor to Crimea. The ideal time for such an agreement, said one of the interlocutors of the publication, would be before the presidential elections in Russia in March. 

American officials are already seeing changes in the position of Putin, who is no longer demanding the removal of the current government in Kyiv. They said the ceasefire deal Putin is proposing would preserve a sovereign Ukraine with its capital in Kyiv, but leave Russia in control of the nearly 20 percent of Ukraine it has already conquered. 

Among the many likely stumbling blocks for such an agreement is Putin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But one former Russian official said the issue would not actually be an obstacle, since the alliance would not accept Ukraine in the foreseeable future anyway.

However, senior US officials have expressed doubt that any prominent Ukrainian politician would be able to agree to a deal that would leave Russia with such a large part of Ukraine’s territory.

In addition, many in the West are generally skeptical of a ceasefire agreement, as it would only give Putin time to rearm for a future new attack. 

“They (the Russians) have never kept any agreements. And they broke them as soon as they saw that it was convenient,” Latvian President Edgar Rinkevichs said, noting that Putin dreams of “restoring the empire.”

Some US officials also say that the Kremlin’s signals that it is ready for a deal may only be an attempt to mislead and not really a sign of a willingness to compromise. Former Russian officials add that Putin may well change his mind and abandon the deal if Russian forces gain a significant advantage at the front.

(C)UNIAN 2023