Cornered, Putin might try to escalate by attacking NATO | Garry Kasparov
Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have disrupted energy exports and caused fuel shortages. But will they be enough to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table?
“Putin has no intention of ending the war, even in the current circumstances,” Garry Kasparov, Chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative, told TVP World’s Maciej Mikos, adding that public complaints matter little to the Kremlin, and that a popular uprising against the regime is unlikely anyway.
“Look, there’s no society in Russia. Russian society is equal to Nazi Germany in 1943 or 1944,” he said, dismissing contrary assumptions as “wishful thinking.”
“Because Putin made war the engine of his regime. War in Russia is everywhere, from kindergarten to the top of the government. It’s in the air in Russia. And if there are some people that are willing to end it, it’s not going to affect the general mood,” he added.
As for Russian top diplomat Sergei Lavrov’s recent reference to the “spirit of Anchorage,” Kasparov was blunt in defining it:
“I think Donald Trump sold Ukraine down the river to Vladimir Putin for great compensation for his family,” the chess grand master said.
He added: “It was about selling Ukraine to Russia. And Donald Trump cut most of the assistance to Ukraine, expecting it to collapse. The change of the mood in Washington is a simple reflection of the fact that Ukraine is doing great and Putin failed to win the war and Europeans claim that they can restart negotiations.”
Kasparov believes the war “will end only when Putin’s resources have been totally depleted,” which “means also the end of Putin,” but warned of a possible escalation.
“I think the chances of Putin trying his luck by attacking NATO countries, primarily the Baltic countries, a limited incursion just to test the resolve of NATO, (…) are growing every day because Putin desperately needs to change the narrative,” something he cannot achieve through battlefield gains in Ukraine.
Chapters:
00:00 Will the Russians’ war fatigue push Putin to peace negotiations?
03:11 Why negotiations remain unlikely
06:35 What should the West do?
08:21 Historical tensions between Poland & Ukraine
10:30 Zaluzhnyi as possible challenger to Zelenskyy in post-war elections
13:24 Necessary conditions for war’s end & risk of escalation
Garry comes to a similar conclusion to Sir Bill Browder, but takes a more confrontational approach.
Comment from :
@TeresaMoretto-e5z
Thank you Kasparov for saying it as it is. Trump was ready to sell Ukraine down the river to enrich his friends and family, there will be no peace as long as Putin is in office.
@ralfwasmund9656
Kasparov is so right. Ukraine needs to win. Putin has no interest in negotiations. If P. agrees on any terms of Ukraine. He is done.
@DrMorpheus
Kasparov understands that Putin can’t accept a peace agreement that falls short of his stated maximalist goals. He would lose all credibility and would likely be deposed one way or another. But his goals are no longer realistic, so he must keep the war going indefinitely.
@rikkafe6050
Garry Kasparov is one of the few people who clearly understands putin and what drives him.
@dokkoishountoko5203
The Russian people show a mind-boggling tolerance for tyranny, oppression, and brutal human rights abuses, yet they are remarkably fragile in the face of an empty stomach. As the fuel drought inevitably paralyzes the supply chain and starves the nation, Russia will plunge into the same catastrophic chaos of the Russian Revolution, when an infuriated, hungry mob brought down the Romanov empire.
@annehersey9895
Garry is right! THINK! Putin has NEVER said there would be Peace when he got the Donbas-NEVER! Putin has ONLY said that when he got Donbas they could talk CEASEFIRE NOT PEACE!! Putin wants ALL of Ukraine and MUST have Kiev to legitimize Russians as the true inheritors of Kievan Rus.
Star comment :
@kempfkempfkempf
Gary Kasparov articulates what should be obvious but is never discussed. Trump’s negotiators are representing the Trump family, and negotiating on its behalf, not on behalf of America. Ukraine and other American foreign policy interests are all up for negotiation; they’re all bargaining chips that are in play in pursuit of Trump family interests. So while Kushner and Witkoff have no qualifications to negotiate on behalf of the US, they’re ideally qualified to negotiate on behalf of The Trump Organization. Of course, their negotiations must be conducted out of sight of American officials; it’s why Witkoff meets with Putin without even a translator. No witnesses from the US allowed; this is personal business, not business of state. Isn’t there a name for such conduct?
@petervandevoorde9720
Russia is ruled by an obsessed serial killer, with an insatiable craving to murder people. To satisfy his insane daily homicidal needs, he orders the poisoning or throwing out of windows of fellow Russians or sends them to Ukraine, where a thousand of them are killed each day. While at night, this sadistic lunatic orders hundreds of missiles into neighboring countries to kill innocent civilians!!!!!! But humanity does not allow serial killers to run amok, so his time is almost up!!!!!