If Trump agreed to deliver Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, the Kremlin despot could face a devastating defeat
Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor
22 October 2025
In the deadly game of poker being played between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine, US President Donald Trump should understand that he demonstrably holds the upper hand.
At every level, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called “special military operation” to subjugate Ukraine to Moscow’s will has been an abject failure. During nearly four years of bitter bloodshed, Russia’s territorial gains have been minimal, while its military has suffered catastrophic losses, both in terms of men and equipment. Meanwhile, the economic consequences of the war have had a devastating impact; petrol queues have now become a regular fixture for ordinary Russians.
Even Putin’s initial justification for embarking on his campaign of conquest against Ukraine, that Moscow needed to protect itself from further Western encroachment, has blown up in his face.
Far from reducing the unity of the Nato alliance, Russia’s unprovoked military aggression has persuaded two previously neutral European countries – Sweden and Finland – to abandon this decades-long commitment and join the West’s military alliance. Nato’s border with Russia has thus significantly expanded, making it far easier for the alliance to defend itself against future acts of Russian aggression.
In such circumstances, it is hardly surprising that Putin jumped at the chance of engaging in yet another round of direct talks with Trump. The Kremlin’s overture came shortly after Trump dropped heavy hints that he was giving serious consideration to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles, weaponry that could significantly enhance Ukraine’s military firepower at a time when Russian forces are already on the defensive.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked after Trump’s two-hour telephone conversation with Putin, the Russian leader’s primary motivation in re-establishing a dialogue with the White House was simply that he was “afraid” of the likely impact supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks would have on the conflict.
Trump’s readiness to engage with Putin, even when it is perfectly clear the Russian leader has no genuine interest in accepting a ceasefire deal, has become one of the more baffling aspects of his presidency.
Even though Moscow has next-to-no chance of achieving its strategic objectives in Ukraine, Trump is still prepared to treat Putin as an equal.
Perhaps the American leader is in thrall to the image of supreme power that Putin likes to project, even if it has been achieved through the brutal suppression of opposition voices. Or Trump may base his approach on the more practical realpolitik argument that it is in America’s long-term interests to persuade the Russians to ditch their alliance with China in return for a more pragmatic relationship with Washington.
Whatever the real reason is for Trump’s blind spot regarding Putin, the result is that Trump constantly finds himself in the position where he is raising expectations about what Putin will deliver in terms of ending hostilities in Ukraine, only to find himself being sorely disappointed.
Trump’s belated recognition that it would be a “waste of time” to press ahead with his planned summit with Putin in Budapest is therefore merely the latest example of Trump having his hopes of a Ukraine ceasefire dashed by Putin’s intransigence. Having initially insisted that his latest phone call with Putin was “very productive”, Trump has now concluded that there is little prospect of Moscow changing its unpalatable demands for ending the conflict, with the Kremlin continuing to stick to its demand that it be allowed to seize large tracts of eastern Ukraine as well as limiting Kyiv’s ambitions to forge closer ties with the West.
This is not the first time Trump has been badly let down by Putin’s duplicity. It was a similar story back in August when the US leader met Putin in Alaska, and believed he had achieved a breakthrough in his quest for a ceasefire, one that never materialised.
After this latest setback, with the White House insisting there are “no plans” for a Trump-Putin summit to take place “in the immediate future”, the time has surely come for Trump to realise that he has the upper hand over his Russian adversary, and act accordingly.
Putin’s continued opposition to a ceasefire is only possible because Trump keeps letting him off the hook by agreeing to more talks. It would be a very different story, if, instead of keeping a line open to the Kremlin, Trump approved the delivery of Tomahawk missiles and other high-end weaponry to Ukraine, a move that could have disastrous implications for the Russian war effort.
One of the reasons Putin now finds himself on the ropes is because of the recent success the Ukrainians have enjoyed targeting key Russian infrastructure, such as oil refineries. One attack this week saw UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles destroy a Russian chemical plant making gunpowder and rocket fuel.
The damage Russia would suffer if Trump gave the go ahead for Tomahawks to be delivered to Kyiv would be even greater, giving Putin little option but to accept Trump’s ceasefire terms or face a devastating defeat.
Comment from :
Doug Gross
Any that doubt Putin has something on Trump just have to think about all the nonsense that has happened. Trump acts like he is going to do something to Putin, does nothing. Gives him the red carpet in Alaska, embarrasses Zelensky in the White House, takes away aid to Ukraine as soon as he gets in the White House. Essentially Trump is a foreign agent.
Kremtroll arsehole :
Piggy Boon
Ask yourself the question – do you want global, possibly nuclear war, or the Ukraine total wiped out by nuclear weapons?
A terrible choice. But that is the result of this brinkmanship.
Any Russian leader will wipe out Europe in a first strike.
Any US leader will walk away…
GRAHAM REEVE
Reply to Piggy Boon
Britain and France have more than enough nuclear weapons for a secondary strike to end Russia (probably the whole world given the several decades of nuclear winter and thus decades of no crops/food that would create). Russia knows this. Are you suggesting Russia will happily commit nuclear suicide rather than just going back to its internationally recognised borders? You think that Putin would decide to kill every man, woman and child in Russia out of spite just because he can’t rule Ukraine as well?
Group Captain Lionel Mandrake
Trump either doesn’t understand brinkmanship or Putin has a hex over him. Biden should have flown US Troops to Europe before Putin was emboldened. Trump needs to do this now, provide and sell weapons and put his stamp of authority on this issue.
Putin and the Russians fully understand that exploding demonstration nuclear weapons or bombing a European capital with H bombs will quickly escalate out of control leading to the obliteration of Russia and large parts of the rest of the world. Putin may not care much about this but he will care about spending the last 60 days of his life in a deep, airless bunker as the food and water run out and the inevitable ingress of radioactive pollution contamination leads to months of his body turning to mush. Trump keeps blinking before Putin.
Neil Laurie
Trump won’t deliver Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine because of the dirt that the Russians have on him. It’s as simple as that.
Stanislaw Bielecki
Now that the Russian military is getting weaker, it is time to strike at the arms factories, chemical factories, gas & oil facilities and the rear military supply hubs. The British know that now is the time and so have allowed Storm Shadows to be used.
Michael Delaney
Ukraine to target military targets in Russia is escalation; Russia using North Korean ballistic missiles to target residential areas in Ukraine is not?
Meanwhile, Russia hasn’t advanced very far in nearly four years of the Special Three Day Military Operation.
Most Russian reinforcements to the front line don’t make it and those that do, ninety percent are killed in assaults.
The great military power of Russia is reduced to using Chinese Golf Carts in assaults, donkeys for resupply and Russian soldiers reduced to drinking water from puddles.
Any normal leader would decide enough is enough and that the SMO has failed in its objective to force a change of government in Ukraine.
Kremtroll vermin :
Edward Morgan
This is existential for Russia, not for the rest of Europe and definitely not for the US. The only way to peace is for Ukraine to accept defeat. That will be the result eventually anyway, but the later it happens, the more will die. Tomahawks would be as irrelevant as the previous ‘wonder weapons’ were. Russia has unlimited escalatory capability, Ukraine doesn’t.
roger rsinden
Reply to Edward Morgan
Russian AI bot. Go away.
Matthew Matic
Reply to Edward Morgan
This is not existential for Russia. That is idiocy.
It is existential for Ukraine. That is a fact.
Donna Jones
It’s not a case of Putin not wanting peace he can’t have peace. Putin’s personal survival is at stake. Russia now has a military economy that will collapse. He also can’t sell what Russia has achieved after a million dead soldiers as a victory to a domestic population. The war will continue until Putin is deposed.
Andrew Darbyshire
The endless speculation about Trump is mind numbing. Trump is pro Russian & pro Putin probably because he is being blackmailed by Putin. Europe needs to wake up and deal with Putin themselves, without US support for the medium term whilst Trump is President.
Chris Tonabike
I don’t see the poker analogy as accurate. I feels like 3D chess to me. Zelensky doesn’t want a ceasefire right now. He has spent a lot of time and trouble getting Crimea to the point of virtual siege. The pressure is on there and Zelensky could force the Russians out with barely a shot fired. Furthermore, Russia’s oil industry could be crippled by a harsh winter, with nowhere to store oil, stopped production can mean well heads frozen. That will kill off many wells and punish Putin’s ailing economy further still. The winter battlefield tends to be quieter, and the real fight is elsewhere. We will need time to see how this will all play out.
Colin Scott
I think Putin must have some kind of hold over Trump, which he threatens to reveal if he supports Ukraine. Otherwise all Trump has to do to stop the war within three months is to properly arm Ukraine.
Kieran Smithson
Forget the draft-dodger. Directly or indirectly he’s in the pay of Russia.
Putin told him not to deliver Tomahawks. He’ll do as he’s told.
EU and UK need to step right up and commit wholeheartedly to supporting Ukraine.
“Russia’s oil industry could be crippled by a harsh winter, with nowhere to store oil, stopped production can mean well heads frozen. That will kill off many wells and punish Putin’s ailing economy further still.”
That’s an interesting point!