Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has likely not changed his goals in the war against Ukraine and is confident that he can achieve ultimate victory.

This is stated in the annual report  “Global Threat Assessment – 2025”, prepared by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the US Congress as of May 11, 2025, reports Censor.NET.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin views the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against the West that will determine Russia’s place in the world, Putin’s retention in power, and his historical legacy. Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine and is prepared to use military force until at least 2025. Putin also remains steadfast in his demand that Ukraine be permanently barred from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), insisting that Kyiv withdraw all its military forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions,” the document states.

US intelligence believes that Russia is likely seeking to avoid direct conflict with NATO because, in its assessment, it cannot win in a conventional military confrontation with the Alliance.

“However, Moscow remains fully capable of using asymmetric capabilities against the United States and allies, including cyber and information campaigns, and ultimately poses an existential threat with its strategic nuclear forces, which can strike the entire US mainland,” the report said.

The document notes that Russia is betting on a strategy of attrition and is trying to undermine Ukraine’s ability to resist, demoralize its population, and wait for Western support to wane. Despite the slow pace of progress, the Russian military command probably finds them acceptable.

“In the absence of a negotiated settlement or, alternatively, strong support from the West, the battlefield situation is likely to continue to slowly shift in Russia’s favor through 2025, although the pace of Russian troop advances is slowing and accompanied by significant losses in personnel and equipment,” the report says.

US intelligence also provides data on Russian losses since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Thus, the report states that Russia has lost 700,000 military personnel, including at least 170,000 killed, as well as more than 10,000 units of military equipment, including 3,000 tanks. About 250 aircraft and helicopters have also been lost.

US intelligence believes that throughout 2025, the Russian Federation will likely continue to implement its strategy of trying to exhaust Ukraine and reduce its ability and will to resist, which, according to the calculations of the occupiers, will allow them to impose their conditions in any future negotiated settlement.

Author:  Olga Gergelyuk Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/n3554143

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