Hans Petter Midttun

Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies

Mar 27, 2024

Extract from the ISW report “Denying Russia’s only strategy for success”:

“The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation […]. The Kremlin must get the US to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets […]. The Kremlin needs the US to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world. […]

The Kremlin links genuine sentiment and even some legitimate arguments to Russia’s interests in public debate. The Kremlin is also an equal opportunity manipulator. It targets the full spectrum of those making or informing decisions. […]. Perception manipulation is one of the Kremlin’s core capabilities — now unleashed with full force onto the Western public as the Kremlin’s only strategy for winning in Ukraine. That is not a challenge most societies are equipped to contend with.”

ME: Many tends to assess the war from a 1-dimmensional perspective. The situation on the ground is often used as evidence of progress or setbacks. Russian advances or withdrawals, losses of manpower and equipment, mobilization and force generation measures are all a part of the very naive approach.

The war is in fact fought in 6 dimensions. Russia is waging war on land, in the air, at sea, in space, cyber space and not least, the cognitive space. Additionally, it is employing a broad specter of both military and non-military means across all dimensions.

Of these, the battle in the cognitive space is probably the most important. Russia has been successfully manipulating public opinion, analysts, media and key policy- and decision makers in the West for more than a decade already. As a consequence, the West failed to rearm and mobilise the defence industry when the war started in 2014. It failed to understand Russia’s strategic aim and objectives. It failed to respond to its hybrid war against both the US and Europe. Until recently, most did not understand that the West was already exposed to a Russian instigated broader confrontation.

The West have not least failed to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to win and, thereby, ensuring the security of Europe. NATO members have been manipulated into believing that acting according to its 2010 strategic concept runs contrary to their interests.

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose – if the West mobilizes its resources. If we lean in and surge, Russia loses. That is why the battle in the cognitive space is crucial to its success.