General Cavoli pointed out the key factors.
17.05.2024
The Russian army, which invaded Kharkiv region for the second time since the beginning of the war, will not have enough forces and means to change radically the situation on this section of the front, General Christopher Cavoli, supreme commander of the United armed forces of NATO in Europe, is confident.
In his opinion, the Ukrainian troops will be able to hold their positions, especially since “a huge amount” of ammunition and short-range air defence systems, as well as a “significant amount” of armoured vehicles, are due to arrive soon.
Russian units “do not have the numbers needed for a strategic breakthrough,” Cavoli said at a news conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels after a meeting of the alliance’s military chiefs, Reuters reported.
Moreover, they do not have the skills and capabilities to do so, to operate on the scale necessary to turn a breakthrough into a strategic advantage. They do have the ability to achieve localised successes, and they have already demonstrated that. They have also suffered some localised defeats.
The AFU’s ammunition supply situation should “seriously improve soon,” added Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee.
Cavoli did not provide data on the number of Russian troops on this section of the front. George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), estimated that the Russian grouping in Belgorod region, from where the invasion began on the night of May 10, numbers 30,000, and together with troops in adjacent territories could be as high as 50,000.
https://charter97.org/en/news/2024/5/17/595419
So, according to Gen. Cavoli, the roaches don’t have the numbers or the skills for an effective military operation. The former is a surprise, the latter is not. He doesn’t divulge any numbers about roach troop strength for some reason. I think he knows it down to the hundreds but is keeping it a secret for certain opsec reasons.
“The AFU’s ammunition supply situation should ‘seriously improve soon…'”
I seriously hope so. Although, Zelensky is saying that the artillery ammo is no longer a problem. I hope he’s not bullshitting.
OFP why would it be an opsec issue to divulge the enemy’s troop strength?
Ask the general. I wouldn’t know. I can only guess that if the Ukrainians know the exact number, they could act accordingly and the roaches would counteract accordingly.
A total fiasco can and will be achieved when the defenders are able to consistently marmalise orcs at a rate that far exceeds the maximum replacement rate.
It’s good to read encouraging words by a military expert, of course, but does Cavoli seriously think Nato is doing enough to enable successful defence? Those deliveries that are “due to arrive soon” always are too little, too late! It’s certainly flattering for the AFU that Nato HQ has such high confidence in the Ukrainian ability to make miracles happen, but this can’t be a substitute for adequate supplies! 😠
As usual, Mr. Gray, we can only hope that this is as he says.