30.08.2026

The leadership of the aggressor country, Russia, realizes that it will not win the war against Ukraine, but since withdrawing from the war is deadly dangerous for the regime, Moscow will try to continue it as long as it can. Large-scale or general mobilization in the Russian Federation will not give the desired breakthrough – only short-term success in individual sections of the front is possible. Mobilization will not win the war.

Those who returned from the war – “heroes of the SVO” – will become a real problem for ordinary citizens and for the authorities. The idea of ​​peace negotiations with the Kremlin dictator Putin looks ridiculous, since any negotiations with him are a priori impossible. To force the aggressor to peace, it is necessary to act differently – to declare to the whole world that Putin’s Russia is a neo-Nazi state with all the ensuing consequences.

This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by anti-Russian activist, head of the Stop Russian Terror Foundation (USA), Herman Obukhov.

– What are your assessments of the human resources that Putin has today or that he will have after the State Duma elections in September? According to some indications, Russians have begun to leave the country, fearing mobilization. For example, in just two days, on August 15 and 16, 40,000 Russians left for Georgia. Is this an escape or just the peak of the tourist season?

– As for the tourist season, it is almost coming to an end, and it has also gotten significantly colder there, so it is possible that this is due to the risk of mobilization after the elections. Those who have some opportunities and resources have decided to leave the country for Georgia, Armenia, or somewhere else so as not to take any risks. But 40,000 for Russia is not such a big number.

What can mobilization solve? To some extent, it can solve some issues at the front, for example, the advancement or stopping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in principle it will not solve anything radically because the war cannot be won by mobilization. With these living forces, you will still not get anywhere — neither to Kyiv nor to Lviv. Therefore, it is only about stabilization at the front, nothing more. This is all that Moscow is seeking.

– But if we are talking about increasing the size of the Russian army by 300,000 or even 500,000, this is a significant increase, isn’t it?

– Significant, but such that it cannot change the course of events. In principle, it does not change anything. Maybe they will break through the front somewhere, capture ten more villages or one city. But it will not fundamentally change anything in this war. These are just some temporary local measures of stopping, freezing, conservation. Nothing more. In my opinion, Moscow already understands that they will not win any war.

And what to do? The end of the war is the end of political life and the core of power, and Putin personally, and his entourage, because people need to explain something. What have you been doing for four years, why have so many people died? After the war, investigations will begin into bloggers and others. In particular, it will become clear that the dead were not 50 thousand or 100 thousand, but almost a million.

This will start to gain momentum throughout the country. Unforeseen internal conflicts will begin. I don’t know if it will come to protests. And in this situation, mobilization will not fundamentally solve anything.

– What is your opinion on martial law in Russia? Does Putin, the Kremlin, need it now?

– Martial law will not change anything either. It is unlikely that Putin, the Kremlin, needs it. And without martial law, everything is going the way they would like it to go. If it was not introduced during the first year or two of a full-scale war, then it is unlikely that making such a decision now will have any positive effect on the situation.

But the Ukrainian government is not doing everything to end this war on Ukraine’s terms. It is impossible to hold any peace talks with the Kremlin and Putin, it is foolish and ridiculous to talk about it.

Everyone finds it not just strange, but funny. It is impossible to negotiate any peace with them. Perhaps, at the diplomatic level, we can talk about it, but at the same time do something else in backroom negotiations with Europe, with America.

– Please clarify what Ukraine should do to bring the end of the war closer on its own terms?

– I am convinced that until Europe starts talking about neo-Nazism in Russia, this war will go on forever. Everyone in Europe is waiting for the war to end to start trading with Russia, but it is impossible to deal with neo-Nazism.

Now in Russia, classic neo-Nazism reigns, only in a different, hidden form. There are no gas chambers, Ukrainians are not killed on Russian territory, there are some other differences, but this does not mean that they are not like the Nazis in fascist Germany. Propaganda is doing its job. It pushes people into this slaughter. It has convinced Russians that “there are Nazis in Ukraine” and “we are defending our country.”

But Ukraine is silent, and this is complete nonsense. I have also been in America for two months, and here they hardly say anything about the war in Ukraine, they live their lives, because this is not an American war, there are no American soldiers there, there are no American citizens who die. Therefore, the main topics of the media are Trump, Iran, some internal problems. Almost no one pays attention to Ukraine.

There are people in the West who can really pick up on this topic, including local bloggers and local media. This should not come officially from the Office of the President. This should be done by certain forces in the media space in Europe and America. This topic needs to be promoted so that it reaches the parliament, to the first persons.

After all, there is an evidentiary base, it is not taken from the air. There are certain laws of society, philosophy, political science. But I do not yet see forces in Ukraine that could do this. It is impossible to do it alone. There must be some group that would coordinate its actions and have support from some funds – Ukrainian or American.

– Another interesting statement was recently made by Putin. He suddenly mentioned the “heroes of the North Caucasus Military District” and said that, supposedly, the Russian government needs to prepare for their return to the country. In your opinion, can the “heroes of the North Caucasus Military District” become a very big problem for the Putin regime?

– In general, they have already become a problem. Because there are many incidents – both armed and unarmed. After all, a person who went to kill for money and somehow returned alive already has a different attitude towards others, towards the authorities and towards everything else. And how the authorities will deal with such people is a big question, because simply leaving the situation without control will be extremely difficult. There will be constant problems both in the criminal sphere and in the political sphere. I don’t know how the Kremlin will solve this problem.

In Soviet times, after World War II, all these disabled people, who were without arms and legs, were hidden in the Gulag, on Solovki, so that they would not be seen. Now there are enough of them in Russia too, and, probably, they can no longer be hidden.

Those who are healthier, not getting a job, can go rob shops and banks. After all, they are used to receiving some huge money during the war. They will quickly spend it on a car, on a mistress. The money will run out, and there is no war, but they are already used to war and money. Therefore, problems will begin everywhere.

– Do the “heroes of the SVO” pose a direct threat to the regime?

– They will pose an indirect threat to the regime. If conflicts of a criminal nature begin, and the authorities somehow hide it, I don’t think the people will like it very much. So, problems will begin, if not in Moscow, then in the regions, at some local regional level, with the authorities.

How else? In Russia, unlike America, people do not have weapons. How will they fight if a person is already insane? This is where the problems for the authorities come from. At least for the regional ones. This wave will reach the federal authorities in Moscow; it is a matter of time. So far, this is just the beginning.

Therefore, for Putin, ending the war is not an option at all. For him, it is desirable for this war to last indefinitely or at least for another 5–10 years, as it was in Donbas – it seems to be a war, but not a war in the full sense of the word.

– It turns out that Putin would be happy with a “semi-frozen” war today. Why, in that case, is he staging meat-based assaults on Donbas? Why rush?

– It’s not about rushing, sometimes you just need to show at least some result. The fact is that when the front freezes and doesn’t move for several months, everyone sees it. Russian soldiers continue to die anyway. Of course, there are victims on the Ukrainian side, but some kind of, as Putin says, “movement” is needed, you need to show at least a minimal result. If they take some Little Tokmachka for months, then it’s just ridiculous. What kind of Berlin is there, what kind of Kyiv is there?

Returning to the issue of recognizing neo-Nazism in Russia. This would mean a complete cessation of economic and political contacts with Russia and would affect not only Europe, but also China. Because China would also be unpleasant to deal with neo-Nazis.

I don’t know about Iran, but North Korea, in my opinion, doesn’t care at all what anyone calls Russia, because it’s a country that’s very similar to the Soviet Union and probably closest to the Union in terms of its governance and organization. America will change this year after the elections. I’m almost certain that the Democrats will have a majority in Congress, maybe in the Senate, and this is an unpleasant turn for Trump and Putin, because Trump won’t be able to do anything anymore. And the Kremlin has no one else.

So there will be a complete stalemate, and on both sides because neither Zelensky will be able to do anything, because he does not have the strength to somehow displace Putin’s troops, nor Putin. Even with mobilization, he will not have enough forces. They will all go to waste.

Winter will probably be quite difficult for Ukraine. I hope it will be the last winter of the war. It will have to be survived somehow. And we will work to ensure that Ukraine starts talking about Russian neo-Nazism in Europe and America through some of its sources and channels. I will also make my efforts to do this.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/u-moskvi-vzhe-rozumiyut-scho-ne-vigrayut-vijnu-mobilizatsiya-ne-vryatue-intervyu-z-obuhovim.htm