06.10.2026

Friedrich Merz’s visit to Kyiv came at one of the most dangerous moments in recent months.
The German Chancellor arrived in the Ukrainian capital on October 4, when Russia intensified air strikes and effectively showed that the presence of a Western leader is no longer a reason for Putin to slow down. This moment is important not only from the point of view of the Chancellor’s own security.

Russia had called on foreigners and diplomats to leave Kyiv the day before, warning of possible massive attacks. Merz came anyway. Which became a demonstration of support for Ukraine at a time when Moscow is trying to increase pressure not only on the front, but also on Ukrainian cities and energy.

However, the main content of the visit is not symbolism. Berlin announced more than 1.3 billion euros in aid, of which about 1 billion falls on the military sphere, another 350 million – on the restoration of the energy system. Germany plans to transfer thousands of interceptor drones, support the production of weapons and expand cooperation with the Ukrainian defense sector. Representatives of German business came to Kyiv with Merz, which shows that Berlin increasingly views Ukraine not only as a country that needs to be supplied with weapons, but also as an important partner in the development of defense technologies.

For Merz, there is another dimension to this trip. Within Germany, support for Ukraine needs to be explained more and more clearly to voters, and the chancellor’s own political positions have weakened. So for him, Kyiv is simultaneously a place to demonstrate European leadership, talk about Germany’s security, and try to show why helping Ukraine is in Berlin’s interests.

Ilya Kotov , Candidate of Science in Public Administration, Head of the Center for the Development of State Strategy and Public Policy, shared his thoughts on these and other issues in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

– The German Chancellor has made an unannounced visit to Kyiv. Let’s start with political support. The situation is complicated, the all-out shelling of Kyiv continues. Nevertheless, the German Chancellor is arriving at this very time and is demonstrating not only practical, but also political and psychological support.

– Indeed, the shelling did not stop. This is another indicator of Moscow’s absolute disrespect for the European Union in general, its leaders and Germany in particular. But there is another important point here. The ultimate goal of the Russians in all these shellings that have been taking place recently, in strikes on infrastructure, is a cognitive operation, mental pressure on Ukrainian society. It is important for them to repeat the picture of 2022, when embassies of European and other countries left Kyiv. This is one of the goals they are trying to achieve. It is not for nothing that we see various allegations in the media that embassies are allegedly going to leave Kyiv. We see reports that the Verkhovna Rada is supposedly considering the possibility of moving to the western regions. Objectively, this does not correspond to reality, but the Russians are conducting such an information operation so that people lose faith.

We need to understand and constantly emphasize this: it is important for Russians that even in the center of the capital people feel that they have been abandoned or may be abandoned, that everything is bad. Their ultimate goal is the capitulation of our state. They have such a concept as Moscowcentrism: what happens in Moscow matters to them, and everything that happens outside Moscow can be ignored. Moscow is Russia. And in their understanding, the same applies to Kyiv. If they manage to influence those who are in Kyiv, they believe that this will affect the general Ukrainian position. Therefore, Merz’s visit, as a manifestation of support at this time, is important from this point of view as well.

– Merz’s visit also has a very concrete practical result. Germany is providing Ukraine with over 1.3 billion in military and energy aid.

– These are not just words of support – hang in there, we are with you. Merz announced a large aid package. Of course, the question arises as to what exactly is included in this package. One of the main practical results of Merz’s visit is the strengthening of Ukrainian air defense. Germany plans to quickly transfer thousands of interceptor drones to Ukraine, designed to combat Russian drones. This is a new area of ​​assistance, which is becoming especially relevant due to the scale of Russia’s use of strike UAVs. Ukraine now needs a more massive and relatively cheap means of destroying drones, which Russia launches in large waves. Therefore, the focus on interceptor drones may become one of the important areas of German military assistance in the near future.

In addition, I am ready to say very cautiously that I do not exclude: this package may also include that pre-election promise of Merz, which we somehow forgot about over time. Let me remind you, Merz promised Taurus missiles for Ukraine. Then the rhetoric changed, statements began to be made that the Ukrainians already have enough weapons that they produce themselves, and that the transfer of Taurus supposedly no longer makes much sense. But there is a point. The only way to stop Russia is to counterattack. And not by constantly expecting strikes and repelling them, but by launching counterstrikes. Germany also understands this perfectly well.

Merz’s position is not to be afraid of Russian provocations, which are taking place, in particular, in Germany. We see both sabotage and cyberattacks there. On the contrary, he is trying to consolidate support for Ukraine as much as possible, thereby destroying the Kremlin’s initial plan. And it is understandable – to bring European society to fear war and thus stop support for Ukraine from Europe. This is Putin’s dream. Therefore, the visit is truly significant and important. And there are a lot of positive things in it. But the visit is useful not only for our state. It is also useful for Merz himself, this must also be understood. Given the domestic political situation in Germany, in a sense, he is going all-in with this visit and assistance to Ukraine. The results of the regional elections in the German states. They demonstrated an extremely low level of support for the Christian Democrats, the party of Friedrich Merz, and at the same time a very high level of support for the far-right Alternative for Germany. We are constantly talking about this. And we need to understand this when we plan our international processes and events. Merz understands perfectly well that the voter of the Alternative for Germany, those Germans who lean towards the far-right and disagree with supporting Ukraine, is no longer his voter. And why do they disagree? Because populist rhetoric is at work there: they say, if we hadn’t given Ukraine money, everything would be fine in Germany itself. Of course, it sounds ridiculous, but people, unfortunately, believe it. And Merz understands that this voter is unlikely to become his supporter. And what is he doing? Instead of closing himself off inside Germany, going into a certain political cocoon and dealing exclusively with internal processes, he, on the contrary, is entering the international arena and trying to win here by supporting Ukraine and consolidating around himself those Germans who understand a few things.

– It is significant that Merz did not come to Kyiv alone. Together with him, the German Minister of Economics and Energy and representatives of German business visited the Ukrainian capital. The delegation included heads of large companies, including Siemens Energy, Hensoldt, Diehl Defense and Quantum Systems.

– For Berlin, such cooperation also makes sense. During the years of war, Ukraine has accumulated vast practical experience in the use of drones, interceptors, and long-range systems. German industry has technological and financial capabilities. The combination of these two resources can yield results faster than traditional multi-year defense programs. Many agreements on joint production and joint defense activities have been signed. This is extremely important for our state.

Against the backdrop of internal discussions in Germany, it is important for Merz to demonstrate that support for Ukraine brings concrete benefits to the country. Berlin has to explain to voters why significant funds are being allocated to help Kyiv and why this policy meets the interests of Germany itself. It is in this context that it is worth considering the presence of representatives of German companies in the Kyiv delegation. And, believe me, if we look at German sociology in a few days or a week, we can see that the visit to Kyiv affected the ratings of both Merz himself and his party as a whole. Because they simply no longer have the opportunity to play any kind of indirectness. That is why I say that I do not rule out the transfer of Taurus missiles, I do not rule out a lot of things in the future that we could not even count on before. The situation inside Germany is pushing for this.

– One of the most revealing details of Merz’s current visit is that the Russian strikes did not stop even during the stay in Kyiv of one of the most influential European leaders. Previously, the arrivals of high-ranking Western representatives to the Ukrainian capital were often accompanied by relative calm. Moscow understood that an attack on Kyiv at the time when the president or prime minister of a Western country was there creates a completely different level of risk. Now this logic seems to have changed.

– Previously, nothing was particularly adhered to either. Terrorist attacks, shelling of civilian objects have always been there. It’s just that what is happening today is gradually overshadowing certain past events. But let’s remember, starting in 2022, the entire period of full-scale invasion. There were practically no rules. Just remember the number of civilians killed and everything else. So the point here is simply that now it is happening more massively, with the use of a large number of drones, and we perceive it as something new.

And as for Merz – yes, indeed, the question here is not that there was any official agreement. Before the visit of any high-ranking representative of another state, Moscow was, of course, warned about this visit at the diplomatic level. And accordingly, in order not to create opportunities for any military provocation or escalation, Moscow paused for a certain time. The same, by the way, applies to our state. The Chinese ask us not to attack Russia when a representative of our government comes there. You see, we have also reached this level.

The situation on the day of the Chancellor’s visit is really another indicator of disrespect for Europe, another indicator of escalation. But the most important thing is to understand that calculating the consequences of any strike is not so easy. Anything can happen. And when they put the German Chancellor in danger, they show the world one important thing: we are ready to fight, we don’t care at all. Even if the Chancellor was not a direct target, but if something happens and Germany declares war on Russia because of the death or, God forbid, injury of the head of state, the Chancellor, they are ready for this. Of course, they are not ready for the consequences, but this is another confirmation of what Putin said at Valdai and what the Russians continue to do. They show: we do not see Europe as a negotiator. We do not see Europe’s place at the negotiating table. We see Europe’s place, excuse me, at the negotiating table, where we will share the same Europe together with the United States and China.

– Against this background, the Chancellor explains his support for Ukraine not only with moral or humanitarian arguments. He increasingly speaks about Germany’s and Europe’s own security. Before arriving in Kyiv, the Chancellor stated that if Russia is not stopped, its military machine may sooner or later be directed against other European countries. A few years ago, the main explanation for helping Ukraine was that Russia had committed aggression and Ukraine had the right to defend itself. Now another calculation is added to this: Ukraine’s defeat or an unfavorable peace imposed on it will not eliminate the Russian military threat.

– This is an important change in Berlin’s argument. Merz said a very correct, German-pragmatic thing: we are helping Ukraine not just as we help another state, but because we need it ourselves. We understand that the danger that exists is a danger for us too. This is not about love. This is about mutual understanding that we are in the same boat. And it is very good that he is saying this publicly. It is very good that he is showing Moscow: despite all of Putin’s calculations for the collapse of the European Union, this is not happening.

By the way, let’s remember the recent Valdai. Putin said there that Russia supposedly does not particularly participate in the collapse of the European Union – it will collapse on its own. We understand that this includes Germany as the largest economy in Europe. And, of course, the bet is on the fact that political forces will come to power that will try to be friends with Russia, pacify it and stop helping Ukraine. Merz is against this. And as long as he is Chancellor, I think he will be under very serious domestic political pressure. And we need to use this period to the maximum for our state and squeeze out all possible advantages from it.

– It turns out that not only Poland or the Baltic countries, which directly border the Russian Federation, but also Germany and other states, which are geographically much further from the Russian border, physically feel the threat?

– Everyone hears the nuclear rhetoric of Russia, the terrorist Vladimir Putin. Everyone has certain intelligence data. We have repeatedly heard from the Poles publicly that they know Russia’s plans. Frankly speaking, I do not yet believe in the opening of some second front or direct aggression against NATO. But I believe in the intensification of hybrid attacks. The Germans understand this too. They see that many transport hubs that are used to help Ukraine are now under potential attack by Russia.

As for your statement that some are closer and some are further away, I agree. But Putin’s position today is very clear. I will mention Valdai more than once, because there were many things that were said there that need to be paid attention to. It is about the restoration of the Soviet Union. He does not need people, he needs territories. He needs the surrender of Ukraine in order to place ballistic missiles near the borders of NATO countries that will reach not only Berlin, but also Paris. He needs to create a threat to everyone around. And these expansionist sentiments will not disappear anywhere. Therefore, the Germans understand everything perfectly. That, for example, in the event of even a hypothetical attack on Poland, they will not remain on the sidelines. It has always been like this. Therefore, everyone is already calculating Plan A, Plan B. But the most important thing is different: all these dangers and threats should not lead to what the Kremlin wants – for Europe to close down, start preparing for war and at the same time stop helping Ukraine. This would be the ultimate goal for the Kremlin.

– It is worth analyzing another step by Berlin – the first direct meeting of the foreign ministers of Germany and Russia after the start of the full-scale war. Can we say that this is, in a way, a maneuver by Merz, which showed: yes, we are ready to talk. But what did we get during this conversation? The Russians rejected dialogue, the war will continue, no ceasefire, no concessions – nothing at all. How do you see this meeting in relations between Berlin and Moscow?

– You know, here you can look at it from two sides. The first version is a political move by Merz, who decided to play his political game: to show that the problem is not in Germany. We are ready to talk, but Russia is not ready for any changes. This is also normal practice. He showed that the current German government is ready to meet and talk. There is nothing critical in the meeting itself. At the same time, he showed inside Germany that the Alternative for Germany is manipulating when it says that the current government is intransigent and generally advocates war.

There is another version – that the Russians were simply mocking Germany. And, you know, I think that there is really both. The initiative for the meeting belonged to the Russians, not the Germans. This was officially stated by Vaddeful. Why did he agree? Perhaps he wanted to hear some constructive proposals. But we heard Lavrov, who is difficult to call a diplomat. And in general, it is difficult to call an adequate person, to be honest. The head of the Foreign Ministry of any state, even such a terrorist one, should not behave like this. It is simply shameful.

It seems to me that the Russians needed this, firstly, to show that someone is ready to meet with them, that they are still considered by someone as a party to the negotiation process, with whom they can talk and which supposedly has a constructive position. And secondly, to once again demonstrate their disrespect for Germany, the European Union and the European community in general. To paraphrase their position, it sounds like this: you can ask us, beg us, you can come to meetings, but we have our own ultimate goals, from which we will never give up. Everything else is irrelevant.

– Actually, if Merz fails to level his positions within Germany, then what should he prepare for? Because European media are already predicting that the European Union is already preparing for the German Chancellor to resign.

– I have always tried to assess the facts as optimistically as possible, but at the same time realistically. But in this case I want to say that this will be a huge problem. The issue is not in Merz himself. Of course, the Christian Democrats, his party, can now try to somehow change the political situation by changing the chancellor. Remove the figure of Merz, put him in charge of internal German failures – social policy, migration, for everything that is happening. Like, it’s all him, and now there will be a new chancellor – and everything will be fine. In the case of such a situation, this will not actually change the support for our state, because this is one of the political foundations of this German party. But I would consider another option. And this one seems to me the most unpleasant and difficult. This is the option that the Russians, in my opinion, set as their main goal. Today, after the results of all the recent elections, I am sure that the Alternative for Germany will begin the process, and it is already actively underway, of moving towards early elections to the Bundestag – the German parliament.

And here we have a huge problem. With the support of Russia, the Alternative for Germany can shake up the situation around the Bundestag, around Merz. And how the leadership of this state will behave in general is very difficult to predict. I do not exclude that they will take their own supporters out into the streets, organize protests. I hope that we will not see such protests as in the 30s. I hope that they will not burn books and look for enemies. But such a story is possible, and here it is really bad for us. Because if suddenly, for some reason, early elections to the Bundestag are called and held, it will be bad not only for Ukraine.

We can see a completely different European Union. Let’s add to this the presidential elections in France, which will be held next year. The situation there is also not easy. Believe me, Russia will make every possible effort to ensure that the two largest economies in Europe, the two strongest states of the European Union – France and Germany – receive a government that will be, I would say, not very friendly to Ukraine and more friendly to Putin.

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