Kursk update

Marijn Markus  

AI Lead | Managing Data Scientist | Public Speaker

Aug 9, 2024

💥 Russia: Russian military convoy sent as reinforcement annihilated by Ukrainian Armed Forces in Rylsky district of the Kursk Special Operation Zone

Earlier tonight, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a russian #military column roughly 30 km behind the current frontline in Kursk Oblast.

🔥 The Russian column, moving on the E38 highway in Oktyabrskoe, was reportedly hit by a missile strike, losing multiple vehicles.

It is rather curious that once #Ukraine’s armed forces entered Kursk region of russia and started quickly capturing territory, the Russian officials immediately started talking about “international borders” and “sovereign territory”.

What a difference to February 2022!

osint #intelligence

StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

VIDEO HERE:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marijnmarkus_military-ukraine-osint-activity-7227484241373151234-oNpu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

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🏳️ Russian tanks are 𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 Kursk region of russia

📸 Footage from a russian driver shows russian military including tanks fleeing Sudzha, which is now under control of the #Ukraine Armed Forces.

“Damn, tanks! … But for some reason coming from Sudzha!” he comments.

☝️ Either they’re running from the fight, to live and fight another day,

Or perhaps they realized it’s not worth 𝐝𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 for khuylo.

Intelligence #Military

StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

VIDEO HERE:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marijnmarkus_ukraine-intelligence-military-activity-7227409205098418176-aG98?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

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🙌 Russian soldiers in Kursk surrender to #Ukraine in droves
300+ by some counts.

It’s incredible how unmotivated russian forces inside russia are. While the lun@tics they send to Ukraine fight themselves into sunflowers, their brethren inside russia seem singularly spiritless.

☝️ Either that, or they’re far more sensible than the characters who are sent to Ukraine – they surrender and live, while those who are sent to Ukraine inevitably end up measuring their length in the rich soil of Ukraine.

When surrendering becomes “normal,” mass surrendering or deserting becomes more plausible.

The Russian Army can collapse, due to internal problems, as it did in 1917.

It’s the first time in 70+ years that Russia is being invaded.

Will it be the last?

history #ethics

StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

VIDEO HERE:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marijnmarkus_ukraine-history-ethics-activity-7227358582281768960-XHG-?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios.

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“Russia should give Kursk to Ukraine for the sake of peace…”
📣 Tough times for russian #propaganda

There is uncertainty and bewilderment in Russian “Z-channels” this morning. It is difficult for them to quickly shift from “We will nuke the world” and “Russia from Vladivostok to Lisbon” to “We will defend the city of Kursk” and “Sudzha is a Russian city.”

They’ve gone from being the second best #military “in the world” to being the second best military in Ukraine to being the second best military in russia

🙄 Moscow is now hastily fabricating stories that the “situation is under control” and “Kursk is liberated” while even their own citizens post evidence to the contrary and call Moscow out on their lies.

Not to mention the fact that all those ‘red lines’ and nuclear threats now turn out to be a bluff, as russia is invaded for the first time since WW2 and they completely failed to stop it.

🏅 And the fact that this invasion happens DURING Olympics is just the cherry on top.

Remember: Putin invaded #Georgia in 2008 and #Ukraine in 2022 during Olympic games.

We’re observing a nation collapse in many, many ways.

Propaganda #Intelligence

StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

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INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR

Aug 9, 2024

NEW: Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however.

Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.

Read More: https://isw.pub/UkrWar080824

Other Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.

COA (Course of Action) 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.

COA 2: The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Grouping of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast.

COA 3: The Russian military command may choose to redeploy operational reserves that it accumulated for its planned Summer 2024 offensive effort and/or relatively better provisioned and more combat effective frontline units to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in the theater.

COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to maintain the forces it currently has committed to Kursk Oblast but could redeploy significant aviation and strike elements to the area in an effort to improve Russia’s ability to retake territory.

The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia.

Ukrainian officials have yet to comment directly on Ukraine’s ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast.

US officials noted that Ukraine’s ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast is not a violation of US restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets within Russia’s border areas.

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